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Using digital surveillance tools for near real-time mapping of the risk of infectious disease spread.

ABSTRACT: Data from digital disease surveillance tools such as ProMED and HealthMap can complement the field surveillance during ongoing outbreaks. Our aim was to investigate the use of data collected through ProMED and HealthMap in real-time outbreak analysis. We developed a flexible statistical model to quantify spatial heterogeneity in the risk of spread of an outbreak and to forecast short term incidence trends. The model was applied retrospectively to data collected by ProMED and HealthMap during the 2013-2016 West African Ebola epidemic and for comparison, to WHO data. Using ProMED and HealthMap data, the model was able to robustly quantify the risk of disease spread 1-4 weeks in advance and for countries at risk of case importations, quantify where this risk comes from. Our study highlights that ProMED and HealthMap data could be used in real-time to quantify the spatial heterogeneity in risk of spread of an outbreak.

SUBMITTER: Bhatia S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8052406 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Using digital surveillance tools for near real-time mapping of the risk of infectious disease spread.

Bhatia Sangeeta S Lassmann Britta B Cohn Emily E Desai Angel N AN Carrion Malwina M Kraemer Moritz U G MUG Herringer Mark M Brownstein John J Madoff Larry L Cori Anne A Nouvellet Pierre P

NPJ digital medicine 20210416 1

Data from digital disease surveillance tools such as ProMED and HealthMap can complement the field surveillance during ongoing outbreaks. Our aim was to investigate the use of data collected through ProMED and HealthMap in real-time outbreak analysis. We developed a flexible statistical model to quantify spatial heterogeneity in the risk of spread of an outbreak and to forecast short term incidence trends. The model was applied retrospectively to data collected by ProMED and HealthMap during the ...[more]

PMID: 33864009

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Project description:BackgroundThe development of technology and information systems has led to important changes in public health surveillance.ObjectiveThis scoping review aimed to assess the available evidence and gather information about the use of digital tools for arbovirus (dengue virus [DENV], zika virus [ZIKV], and chikungunya virus [CHIKV]) surveillance.MethodsThe databases used were MEDLINE, SCIELO, LILACS, SCOPUS, Web of Science, and EMBASE. The inclusion criterion was defined as studies that described the use of digital tools in arbovirus surveillance. The exclusion criteria were defined as follows: letters, editorials, reviews, case reports, series of cases, descriptive epidemiological studies, laboratory and vaccine studies, economic evaluation studies, and studies that did not clearly describe the use of digital tools in surveillance. Results were evaluated in the following steps: monitoring of outbreaks or epidemics, tracking of cases, identification of rumors, decision-making by health agencies, communication (cases and bulletins), and dissemination of information to society).ResultsOf the 2227 studies retrieved based on screening by title, abstract, and full-text reading, 68 (3%) studies were included. The most frequent digital tools used in arbovirus surveillance were apps (n=24, 35%) and Twitter, currently called X (n=22, 32%). These were mostly used to support the traditional surveillance system, strengthening aspects such as information timeliness, acceptability, flexibility, monitoring of outbreaks or epidemics, detection and tracking of cases, and simplicity. The use of apps to disseminate information to society (P=.02), communicate (cases and bulletins; P=.01), and simplicity (P=.03) and the use of Twitter to identify rumors (P=.008) were statistically relevant in evaluating scores. This scoping review had some limitations related to the choice of DENV, ZIKV, and CHIKV as arboviruses, due to their clinical and epidemiological importance.ConclusionsIn the contemporary scenario, it is no longer possible to ignore the use of web data or social media as a complementary strategy to health surveillance. However, it is important that efforts be combined to develop new methods that can ensure the quality of information and the adoption of systematic measures to maintain the integrity and reliability of digital tools' data, considering ethical aspects.

Project description:BackgroundOn January 21, 2020, the World Health Organization reported the first case of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, which rapidly evolved to the COVID-19 pandemic. Since then, the virus has also rapidly spread among Latin American, Caribbean, and African countries.ObjectiveThe first aim of this study is to identify new emerging COVID-19 clusters over time and space (from January 21 to mid-May 2020) in Latin American, Caribbean, and African regions, using a prospective space-time scan measurement approach. The second aim is to assess the impact of real-time population mobility patterns between January 21 and May 18, 2020, under the implemented government interventions, measurements, and policy restrictions on COVID-19 spread among those regions and worldwide.MethodsWe created a global COVID-19 database, of 218 countries and territories, merging the World Health Organization daily case reports with other measures such as population density and country income levels for January 21 to May 18, 2020. A score of government policy interventions was created for low, intermediate, high, and very high interventions. The population's mobility patterns at the country level were obtained from Google community mobility reports. The prospective space-time scan statistic method was applied in five time periods between January and May 2020, and a regression mixed model analysis was used.ResultsWe found that COVID-19 emerging clusters within these five periods of time increased from 7 emerging clusters to 28 by mid-May 2020. We also detected various increasing and decreasing relative risk estimates of COVID-19 spread among Latin American, Caribbean, and African countries within the period of analysis. Globally, population mobility to parks and similar leisure areas during at least a minimum of implemented intermediate-level control policies (when compared to low-level control policies) was related to accelerated COVID-19 spread. Results were almost consistent when regional stratified analysis was applied. In addition, worldwide population mobility due to working during high implemented control policies and very high implemented control policies, when compared to low-level control policies, was related to positive COVID-19 spread.ConclusionsThe prospective space-time scan is an approach that low-income and middle-income countries could use to detect emerging clusters in a timely manner and implement specific control policies and interventions to slow down COVID-19 transmission. In addition, real-time population mobility obtained from crowdsourced digital data could be useful for current and future targeted public health and mitigation policies at a global and regional level.

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Using digital surveillance tools for near real-time mapping of the risk of infectious disease spread.

Publications

Using digital surveillance tools for near real-time mapping of the risk of infectious disease spread.

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