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Diagnostic accuracy of routine calcitonin measurement for the detection of medullary thyroid carcinoma in the management of patients with nodular thyroid disease: a meta-analysis.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

The usefulness of routine calcitonin measurement for early detection of medullary thyroid carcinoma (MTC) in patients with nodular thyroid disease (NTD) has been investigated in various studies. Recently, a Cochrane review has been published on this issue, but a meta-analysis is lacking yet. Therefore, we performed this meta-analysis.

Methods

We performed an electronic search using PubMed/Medline, Embase and the Cochrane Library. Studies assessing the diagnostic accuracy of routine calcitonin measurement for detecting MTC in patients with NDT were selected. Statistics were performed by using Stata software, risk of bias was assessed using Review Manager version 5.3.

Results

Seventeen studies, involving 74,407 patients were included in the study. Meta-analysis, using the bivariate random effects model and the hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic (HSROC) curve revealed the following pooled estimates: sensitivity 0.99 (95% CI, 0.81-1.00), specificity 0.99 (95% CI, 0.97-0.99), positive likelihood ratio (L+) 72.4 (95% CI, 32.3-162.1), and negative likelihood ratio (L-) 0.01 (95% CI, 0.00-0.23). Meta-regression analysis showed that the threshold of basal calcitonin is an independent factor, but in particular performing stimulation test is not an independent factor.

Conclusions

We showed that routine basal serum calcitonin measurement in the management of patients with thyroid nodules is valuable for the detection of MTC. However, the published cut-off values should be considered and, if applicable, the patients monitored in a wait-and-see strategy by experienced physicians to avoid overtreatment.

SUBMITTER: Vardarli I

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8052568 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundMedullary thyroid carcinoma (MTC) patients have poor survival, tumor/node/metastasis (TNM) stage and biochemical prognosis are the most important factors. We investigated the clinical significance of calcitonin (Ctn) to assess the biochemical prognosis of MTC.MethodsThis retrospective observational study enrolled 77 MTC patients with complete information and primary surgery at the Department of Thyroid Surgery, China-Japan Union Hospital of Jilin University between 2009 and 2020. Patient and MTC characteristics were recorded. All patients were divided into remission, stable, and progression according to biochemical prognosis. We analyzed the correlation between preoperative serum Ctn, TNM stage and biochemical prognosis.ResultsElevated preoperative serum Ctn was positively correlated with TNM stage. Patients with higher Ctn, multifocality, and bilateral tumors were associated with a higher TNM stage. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that preoperative serum Ctn level was an independent risk factor for TNM stage. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis found the best Ctn cut-off value for predicting TNM III was 45.88 pg/mL, which had a sensitivity of 87.2% and a specificity of 65.8%. The best Ctn cut-off value for predicting TNM IV was 167.00 pg/mL, with a sensitivity of 92.9% and a specificity of 77.6%. In univariate analysis, patients with higher preoperative serum Ctn, multifocality, bilateral tumors, and higher TNM stage were more likely to progress. The optimal cut-off value for progression was 195.5 pg/mL, which had a sensitivity of 80.0% and a specificity of 70.2%. For every 1-unit increase in preoperative serum Ctn levels, the risk of progression increased by 1.004 times (P=0.008), and patients with TNM stage III [hazard ratio (HR) =9.663; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.411, 66.156] were nearly 9.7-fold more likely to progress than those in TNM stage I/II.ConclusionsElevated preoperative serum Ctn predicted poor clinical outcomes in MTC.