Dataset Information

Comparing the characteristics and predicting the survival of patients with head and neck melanoma versus body melanoma: a population-based study.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Previous studies reported cutaneous melanoma in head and neck (HNM) differed from those in other regions (body melanoma, BM). Individualized tools to predict the survival of patients with HNM or BM remain insufficient. We aimed at comparing the characteristics of HNM and BM, developing and validating nomograms for predicting the survival of patients with HNM or BM.

Methods

The information of patients with HNM or BM from 2004 to 2015 was obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. The HNM group and BM group were randomly divided into training and validation cohorts. We used the Kaplan-Meier method and multivariate Cox models to identify independent prognostic factors. Nomograms were developed via the rms and dynnom packages, and were measured by the concordance index (C-index), the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and calibration plots.

Results

Of 70,605 patients acquired, 21% had HNM and 79% had BM. The HNM group contained more older patients, male sex and lentigo maligna melanoma, and more frequently had thicker tumors and metastases than the BM group. The 5-year cancer-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS) rates were 88.1 ± 0.3% and 74.4 ± 0.4% in the HNM group and 92.5 ± 0.1% and 85.8 ± 0.2% in the BM group, respectively. Eight variables (age, sex, histology, thickness, ulceration, stage, metastases, and surgery) were identified to construct nomograms of CSS and OS for patients with HNM or BM. Additionally, four dynamic nomograms were available on web. The internal and external validation of each nomogram showed high C-index values (0.785-0.896) and AUC values (0.81-0.925), and the calibration plots showed great consistency.

Conclusions

The characteristics of HNM and BM are heterogeneous. We constructed and validated four nomograms for predicting the 3-, 5- and 10-year CSS and OS probabilities of patients with HNM or BM. These nomograms can serve as practical clinical tools for survival prediction and individual health management.

SUBMITTER: Ding Y

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8052690 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Similar Datasets

Project description:For TP53-mutated head and neck squamous cell carcinomas (HNSCCs), the codon and specific amino acid sequence change resulting from a patient's mutation can be prognostic. Thus, developing a framework to predict patient survival for specific mutations in TP53 would be valuable. There are many bioinformatics and functional methods for predicting the phenotypic impact of genetic variation, but their overall clinical value remains unclear. Here, we assess the ability of 15 different methods to predict HNSCC patient survival from TP53 mutation, using TP53 mutation and clinical data from patients enrolled in E4393 by the Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG), which investigated whether TP53 mutations in surgical margins were predictive of disease recurrence. These methods include: server-based computational tools SIFT, PolyPhen-2, and Align-GVGD; our in-house POSE and VEST algorithms; the rules devised in Poeta et al. with and without considerations for splice-site mutations; location of mutation in the DNA-bound TP53 protein structure; and a functional assay measuring WAF1 transactivation in TP53-mutated yeast. We assessed method performance using overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) from 420 HNSCC patients, of whom 224 had TP53 mutations. Each mutation was categorized as "disruptive" or "non-disruptive". For each method, we compared the outcome between the disruptive group vs. the non-disruptive group. The rules devised by Poeta et al. with or without our splice-site modification were observed to be superior to others. While the differences in OS (disruptive vs. non-disruptive) appear to be marginally significant (Poeta rules + splice rules, P = 0.089; Poeta rules, P = 0.053), both algorithms identified the disruptive group as having significantly worse PFS outcome (Poeta rules + splice rules, P = 0.011; Poeta rules, P = 0.027). In general, prognostic performance was low among assessed methods. Further studies are required to develop and validate methods that can predict functional and clinical significance of TP53 mutations in HNSCC patients.