Addressing partial identification in climate modeling and policy analysis.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Manski CF
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8053963 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Systematic reviews can offer policymakers and stakeholders concise, transparent, and relevant evidence pertaining to pressing policy priorities to help inform the decision-making process. The production and the use of systematic reviews are specifically limited in the Eastern Mediterranean region. The extent to which published systematic reviews address policy priorities in the region is still unknown. This situational analysis exercise aims at assessing the extent to which published systematic reviews address policy priorities identified by policymakers and stakeholders in Eastern Mediterranean region countries. It also provides an overview about the state of systematic review production in the region and identifies knowledge gaps.We conducted a systematic search of the Health System Evidence database to identify published systematic reviews on policy-relevant priorities pertaining to the following themes: human resources for health, health financing, the role of the non-state sector, and access to medicine. Priorities were identified from two priority-setting exercises conducted in the region. We described the distribution of these systematic reviews across themes, sub-themes, authors' affiliations, and countries where included primary studies were conducted.Out of the 1,045 systematic reviews identified in Health System Evidence on selected themes, a total of 200 systematic reviews (19.1%) addressed the priorities from the Eastern Mediterranean region. The theme with the largest number of systematic reviews included was human resources for health (115) followed by health financing (33), access to medicine (27), and role of the non-state sector (25). Authors based in the region produced only three systematic reviews addressing regional priorities (1.5%). Furthermore, no systematic review focused on the Eastern Mediterranean region. Primary studies from the region had limited contribution to systematic reviews; 17 systematic reviews (8.5%) included primary studies conducted in the region.There are still gaps in the production of systematic reviews addressing policymakers' and stakeholders' priorities in the Eastern Mediterranean region. Efforts should be directed towards better aligning systematic review production with policy needs and priorities. Study findings can inform the agendas of researchers, research institutions, and international funding agencies of priority areas where systematic reviews are required.
| S-EPMC4237801 | biostudies-other
Project description:This study presents an innovative approach to hand-coding parties' policy preferences in the relatively new, cross-sectoral field of climate change mitigation policy. It applies this approach to party manifestos in six countries, comparing the preferences of parties in Denmark, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy and the United Kingdom over the past two decades. It probes the data for evidence of validity through content validation and convergent/discriminant validation and engages with the debate on position-taking in environmental policy by developing a positional measure that incorporates 'pro' and 'anti' climate policy preferences. The analysis provides evidence for the validity of the new measures, shows that they are distinct from comparable measures of environmental policy preferences and argues that they are more comprehensive than existing climate policy measures. The new measures strengthen the basis for answering questions that are central to climate politics and to party politics. The approach developed here has important implications for the study of new, complex or cross-cutting policy issues and issues that include both valence and positional aspects.
| S-EPMC6201165 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:Motor vehicle crashes remain the leading cause of teen deaths in spite of preventive efforts. Prevention strategies could be advanced through new analytic approaches that allow us to better conceptualize the complex processes underlying teen crash risk. This may help policymakers design appropriate interventions and evaluate their impacts. METHODS:System Dynamics methodology was used as a new way of representing factors involved in the underlying process of teen crash risk. Systems dynamics modeling is relatively new to public health analytics and is a promising tool to examine relative influence of multiple interacting factors in predicting a health outcome. Dynamics models use explicit statements about the process being studied and depict how the elements within the system interact; this usually leads to discussion and improved insight. A Teen Driver System Model was developed by following an iterative process where causal hypotheses were translated into systems of differential equations. These equations were then simulated to test whether they can reproduce historical teen driving data. The Teen Driver System Model that we developed was calibrated on 47 newly-licensed teen drivers. These teens were recruited and followed over a period of 5-months. A video recording system was used to gather data on their driving events (elevated g-force, near-crash, and crash events) and miles traveled. RESULTS:The analysis suggests that natural risky driving improvement curve follows a course of a slow improvement, then a faster improvement, and finally a plateau: that is, an S-shaped decline in driving events. Individual risky driving behavior depends on initial risk and driving exposure. Our analysis also suggests that teen risky driving improvement curve is created endogenously by several feedback mechanisms. A feedback mechanism is a chain of variables interacting with each other in such a way they form a closed path of cause and effect relationships. CONCLUSIONS:Teen risky driving improvement process is created endogenously by several feedback mechanisms. The model proposed in the present article to reflect this improvement process can spark discussion, which may pinpoint to additional processes that can benefit from further empirical research and result in improved insight.
| S-EPMC6139293 | biostudies-literature
Project description:While conducting a set of large-scale multi-site pragmatic clinical trials involving high-impact public health issues such as end-stage renal disease, opioid use, and colorectal cancer, there were substantial changes to both policies and guidelines relevant to the trials. These external changes gave rise to unexpected challenges for the trials, including decisions regarding how to respond to new clinical practice guidelines, increased difficulty in implementing trial interventions, achieving separation between treatment groups, and differential responses across sites. In this article, we describe these challenges and the approaches used to address them. When deliberating appropriate action in the face of external changes during a pragmatic clinical trial, we recommend considering the well-being of the participants, clinical equipoise, and the strength and quality of the evidence associated with the change; involving those charged with data and safety monitoring; and where possible, planning for potential external changes as the trial is being designed. Any solution must balance the primary obligation to protect the well-being of participants with the secondary obligation to protect the integrity of the trial in order to gain meaningful answers to important public health questions.
| S-EPMC6663617 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND: Computer models played an important role in the health care reform debate, and they will continue to be used during implementation. However, current models are limited by inputs, including available data. Aim. We review microsimulation and cell-based models. For each type of model, we discuss data requirements and other factors that may affect its scope. We also discuss how to improve models by changing data collection and data access procedures. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We review the modeling literature, documentation on existing models, and data resources available to modelers. Results. Even with limitations, models can be a useful resource. However, limitations must be clearly communicated. Modeling approaches could be improved by enhancing existing longitudinal data, improving access to linked data, and developing data focused on health care providers. DISCUSSION: Longitudinal datasets could be improved by standardizing questions across surveys or by fielding supplemental panels. Funding could be provided to identify causal parameters and to clarify ranges of effects reported in the literature. Finally, a forum for routine communication between modelers and policy makers could be established. CONCLUSION: Modeling can provide useful information for health care policy makers. Thus, investing in tools to improve modeling capabilities should be a high priority.
| S-EPMC2965891 | biostudies-other
Project description:BACKGROUND:Abundant historical evidence demonstrates how environmental changes can affect social stability and, in turn, human health. A rapidly growing body of literature, largely from political science and economics, is examining the potential for and consequences associated with social instability related to current climate change. However, comparatively little of this research incorporates the effects on human health or the role of health systems in influencing the magnitude and types of instability that could occur. OBJECTIVE:The objective of this commentary is to articulate a conceptual framework incorporating health outcomes and health systems into theorized and observed linkages between climate change and social instability, illustrating in particular the health effects of natural resource shortages, infectious disease outbreaks, and migration. DISCUSSION:Although increasing evidence exists that climate change, health, and social instability are related, key questions remain about the pathways linking these factors, as well as the magnitude, causality, and directionality of relationships across spatial and temporal scales. Models seeking to explain and predict climate-related social unrest should incorporate the many linkages between climate change, human health, and social instability. Members of the environmental health research community should work closely with those in the political science and economics communities to help deepen understandings of climate-related stressors and shocks that affect instability and worsen health outcomes. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP4534.
| S-EPMC6785235 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The continued increase of anthropogenic pressure on the Earth's ecosystems is degrading the natural environment and then decreasing the services it provides to humans. The type, quantity, and quality of many of those services are directly connected to land cover, yet competing demands for land continue to drive rapid land cover change, affecting ecosystem services. Accurate and updated land cover information is thus more important than ever, however, despite its importance, the needs of many users remain only partially attended. A key underlying reason for this is that user needs vary widely, since most current products - and there are many available - are produced for a specific type of end user, for example the climate modelling community. With this in mind we focus on the need for flexible, automated processing approaches that support on-demand, customized land cover products at various scales. Although land cover processing systems are gradually evolving in this direction there is much more to do and several important challenges must be addressed, including high quality reference data for training and validation and even better access to satellite data. Here, we 1) present a generic system architecture that we suggest land cover production systems evolve towards, 2) discuss the challenges involved, and 3) propose a step forward. Flexible systems that can generate on-demand products that match users' specific needs would fundamentally change the relationship between users and land cover products - requiring more government support to make these systems a reality.
| S-EPMC7521452 | biostudies-literature
Project description:IntroductionSuicide is one of the leading causes of death among children and young people globally and a major public health issue. Government policies determine how much recognised health issues are prioritised and set the context for investment, development and delivery of services. A review of policies concerning children and young people who are suicidal could shed light on the extent that this public health issue is prioritised and highlight examples of best practice in this area. There has never been a review to explore how policy worldwide addresses the specific needs of this vulnerable population. This review will map the key policy documents and identify their relevance to the review question: how does policy address the treatment and care of children and young people who experience suicidality? (international, national (UK) and local (Scotland)).MethodologyEmploying scoping review methodological guidance a systematic and transparent approach will be taken. Preliminary searches will facilitate the identification of MeSh terms, subject headings, individual database and platform nuances. A full search strategy will be created to search five databases: CINAHL, PsychInfo, Medline, Web of Science and Cochrane. Government and other key agency websites (eg, WHO, Unicef) will be searched to identify policy documents. The reference lists of identified documents will be checked. A second reviewer will independently screen and cross validate eligible studies for final inclusion. A data extraction template will then be used to extract key information. We will report our findings using narrative synthesis and tabulate findings, by agreed key components.Ethics and disseminationEthical approval is not required to conduct a scoping review. We will disseminate the findings through a peer-reviewed publication and conference presentation.
| S-EPMC6144395 | biostudies-literature
Project description:IntroductionThe health effects of intimate partner violence (IPV) not only include physical injury, but can also manifest as posttraumatic stress disorder, anxiety, and others. US medical students report receiving inadequate training about IPV. This case-based tutorial for third-year medical students examines: (1) a clinical encounter with a patient experiencing several complex challenges including IPV and homelessness; (2) the implications of existing policy on the delivery of health care services; and (3) the impact of policies on patient choices.MethodsThis case is completed during a family medicine clerkship. The 2-hour case review moves between small- and large-group sessions led by community interprofessional experts at a local family advocacy center. Optimal group size is three to four students and one or two experts per group. The large-group session should be led by a dynamic moderator who is familiar with the Socratic method of teaching to elicit a variety of responses to ad hoc challenge questions. Materials provided include student resources, student case, facilitator guide, moderator guide, and sample brochure of IPV documentation policies.ResultsTo date, over 200 students have participated in this session. During the most recent iteration the average response to the question, "As a result of the FAC experience, I feel more empowered to care for persons experiencing IPV," was 4.1 out of 5 (5 = strongly agree).DiscussionPublic health, health policy, and clinical topics can be effectively taught by an interprofessional team of community experts and lead to improved student understanding of the importance of health policy to both individual and population health outcomes.
| S-EPMC6440420 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveTo map key policy documents worldwide and establish how they address the treatment and care needs of children and young people (CYP) who are suicidal.DesignWe conducted a scoping review to systematically identify relevant key policy documents following a pre-established published protocol.Data sourcesFour databases (CINAHL; Medline; PsycINFO; The Cochrane Database of Systematic reviews) and the websites of key government, statutory and non-statutory agencies were searched. Google and Google Scholar were used to identify other policy documents and relevant grey literature. Leading experts were consulted by email.Eligibility criteria for selected studiesPolicies, policy guidance, strategies, codes of conduct, national service frameworks, national practice guidance, white and green papers, and reviews of policy-concerned with indicated suicide prevention approaches for children up to 18 years old. Limited by English language and published after 2000.Data extraction and synthesisData were extracted using a predetermined template. Second reviewers independently extracted 25%. Documents were categorised as international guidance, national policy and national guidance, and presented in a table providing a brief description of the policy, alongside how it specifically addresses suicidal CYP. Findings were further expressed using narrative synthesis.Results35 policy documents were included in the review. Although many recognise CYP as being a high-risk or priority population, most do not explicitly address suicidal CYP. In general, national guidance documents were found to convey that suicidal children should be assessed by a child and adolescent mental health practitioner but offer no clear recommendations beyond this.ConclusionThe lack of specific reference within policy documents to the treatment and care of needs of children who are suicidal highlights a potential gap in policy that could lead to the needs of suicidal children being overlooked, and varying interpretations of appropriate responses and service provision.
| S-EPMC6830632 | biostudies-literature