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Predicting Recurrent Venous Thromboembolism in Patients With Deep-Vein Thrombosis: Development and Internal Validation of a Potential New Prediction Model (Continu-8).

ABSTRACT: Background: Previous prediction models for recurrent thromboembolism (VTE) are often complicated to apply and have not been implemented widely. Aim: To develop and internally validate a potential new prediction model for recurrent VTE that can be used without stopping anticoagulant treatment for D-dimer measurements in patients with provoked and unprovoked DVT. Methods: Cohort data of 479 patients treated in a clinical care pathway at Maastricht University Medical Center were used. Predictors for the Cox proportional hazards model (unprovoked DVT, male gender, factor VIII levels) were derived from literature and using forward selection procedure. The scoring rule was internally validated using bootstrapping techniques and the predictive ability was compared to existing prediction models. Results: Patients were followed for a median of 3.12 years after stopping anticoagulation treatment (IQR 0.78, 3.90). Sixty-four of 479 patients developed recurrent VTE (13%). The scoring rule consisted of unprovoked DVT (yes: 2 points), male sex (yes: 1 point), and factor VIII > 213 % (yes: 2 points) and was categorized into three groups [i.e., low risk (score 0), medium risk (scores 1, 2, or 3) and high risk (scores 4 and 5)]. The concordance statistic was 0.68 (95% CI: 0.61, 0.75). Conclusion: The discriminative ability of the new Continu-8 score was adequate. Future studies shall verify this score in an independent setting without stopping anticoagulation treatment.

SUBMITTER: Nagler M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8055939 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:SummaryPeople with cirrhosis of the liver are at risk for complications that can worsen their quality of life and increase morbidity and mortality. Contrary to previous beliefs, cirrhosis does not protect against the development of thromboembolic events, and cirrhotic patients may have higher rates of deep vein thrombosis (DVT).Background and aimsThe study of chronic venous disease and its impact on patients with cirrhosis is unknown in the literature and may be an important fact since this condition also had impact on quality of life and morbidity. The aim of this study is to evaluate the prevalence of DVT (Deep Venous thrombosis) in outpatients with cirrhosis and the degree of chronic venous insufficiency, evaluating possible correlations between clinical and laboratory aspects of cirrhotic patients with these pathologies.MethodsPatients with cirrhosis were evaluated in the outpatient clinic of the Liver Transplantation and Hepatology Service of HC-FMUSP from November 2018 to November 2022, with clinical evaluation, venous disease questionnaires, data collection of imaging and laboratory tests, and venous color Doppler ultrasound. The information was analyzed by the University of São Paulo (USP) Statistics Department.ResultsThere was a prevalence of 7.6% of DVT in studied patients, VCSS score 6.73 and severe CEAP classification (C4-6) 32.1%. There was no association of DVT with qualitative variables by the Fisher test such as Child Turcotte Pugh Scale (CTP) (p = 0.890), dichotomized INR values (p = 0.804), etiology of cirrhosis (p = 0.650) and chronic kidney disease (p > 0.999), nor with quantitative variables by t-student's such as age (p = 0.974), Body Mass Index (BMI) (p = 0.997), MELD score (p = 0.555), Albumin (p = 0.150) and Platelets (p = 0.403). We found that as the severity of ascites increases, there is an increase in the proportion of patients classified in the category indicating more severe clinical manifestations of chronic venous disease (C4 to C6). The mean age (54 years) was higher in patients with DVT than in those without. The mean BMI of patients without DVT (25.7 kg/m2) is lower than that of patients with DVT (27.0 kg/m2). The prevalence of DVT is higher in patients with thrombophilia (20.0%) than in those without (7.0%). This suggests an association between the two variables. The descriptive measures of the MELD score, the cirrhosis scale used for liver transplant waiting lists, did not indicate an association of this scale with the occurrence of DVT.ConclusionThe incidence of VTE (Venous Thromboembolic Events) and CVD (Chronic Venous Disease) within the sample surpassed that of the general population; nevertheless, more studies are required to validate these results. Concerning venous thromboembolism, no correlation was observed between the variables within the sample and the augmented risk of VTE. Regarding chronic venous disease, studies have shown that edema and orthostatism are correlated with increased severity of CVD on the VCSS scales. Statistical dispersion methods suggest that patients with higher BMI and more severe liver disease (according to the Child-Pugh score) are more likely to experience worsening of CVD. About chronic venous disease, studies have shown that edema and orthostatism are correlated with increased severity of CVD on the VCSS scales.

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Predicting Recurrent Venous Thromboembolism in Patients With Deep-Vein Thrombosis: Development and Internal Validation of a Potential New Prediction Model (Continu-8).

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