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Genome-wide association study-based deep learning for survival prediction.

ABSTRACT: Informative and accurate survival prediction with individualized dynamic risk profiles over time is critical for personalized disease prevention and clinical management. The massive genetic data, such as SNPs from genome-wide association studies (GWAS), together with well-characterized time-to-event phenotypes provide unprecedented opportunities for developing effective survival prediction models. Recent advances in deep learning have made extraordinary achievements in establishing powerful prediction models in the biomedical field. However, the applications of deep learning approaches in survival prediction are limited, especially with utilizing the wealthy GWAS data. Motivated by developing powerful prediction models for the progression of an eye disease, age-related macular degeneration (AMD), we develop and implement a multilayer deep neural network (DNN) survival model to effectively extract features and make accurate and interpretable predictions. Various simulation studies are performed to compare the prediction performance of the DNN survival model with several other machine learning-based survival models. Finally, using the GWAS data from two large-scale randomized clinical trials in AMD with over 7800 observations, we show that the DNN survival model not only outperforms several existing survival prediction models in terms of prediction accuracy (eg, c-index =0.76), but also successfully detects clinically meaningful risk subgroups by effectively learning the complex structures among genetic variants. Moreover, we obtain a subject-specific importance measure for each predictor from the DNN survival model, which provides valuable insights into the personalized early prevention and clinical management for this disease.

SUBMITTER: Sun T

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8056253 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Providing prognostic information at the time of cancer diagnosis has important implications for treatment and monitoring. Although cancer staging, histopathological assessment, molecular features, and clinical variables can provide useful prognostic insights, improving risk stratification remains an active research area. We developed a deep learning system (DLS) to predict disease specific survival across 10 cancer types from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA). We used a weakly-supervised approach without pixel-level annotations, and tested three different survival loss functions. The DLS was developed using 9,086 slides from 3,664 cases and evaluated using 3,009 slides from 1,216 cases. In multivariable Cox regression analysis of the combined cohort including all 10 cancers, the DLS was significantly associated with disease specific survival (hazard ratio of 1.58, 95% CI 1.28-1.70, p<0.0001) after adjusting for cancer type, stage, age, and sex. In a per-cancer adjusted subanalysis, the DLS remained a significant predictor of survival in 5 of 10 cancer types. Compared to a baseline model including stage, age, and sex, the c-index of the model demonstrated an absolute 3.7% improvement (95% CI 1.0-6.5) in the combined cohort. Additionally, our models stratified patients within individual cancer stages, particularly stage II (p = 0.025) and stage III (p<0.001). By developing and evaluating prognostic models across multiple cancer types, this work represents one of the most comprehensive studies exploring the direct prediction of clinical outcomes using deep learning and histopathology images. Our analysis demonstrates the potential for this approach to provide significant prognostic information in multiple cancer types, and even within specific pathologic stages. However, given the relatively small number of cases and observed clinical events for a deep learning task of this type, we observed wide confidence intervals for model performance, thus highlighting that future work will benefit from larger datasets assembled for the purposes for survival modeling.

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Genome-wide association study-based deep learning for survival prediction.

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