Project description:BackgroundInfant mortality rates in the US exceed those in all other developed countries and in many less developed countries, suggesting political factors may contribute.MethodsAnnual time series on overall, White and Black infant mortality rates in the US were analysed over the 1965-2010 time period to ascertain whether infant mortality rates varied across presidential administrations. Data were de-trended using cubic splines and analysed using both graphical and time series regression methods.ResultsAcross all nine presidential administrations, infant mortality rates were below trend when the President was a Democrat and above trend when the President was a Republican. This was true for overall, neonatal and postneonatal mortality. Regression estimates show that, relative to trend, Republican administrations were characterized by infant mortality rates that were, on average, 3% higher than Democratic administrations. In proportional terms, effect size is similar for US Whites and Blacks. US Black rates are more than twice as high as White, implying substantially larger absolute effects for Blacks.ConclusionsWe found a robust, quantitatively important association between net of trend US infant mortality rates and the party affiliation of the president. There may be overlooked ways by which macro-dynamics of policy impact microdynamics of physiology, suggesting the political system is a component of the underlying mechanism generating health inequality in the USA.
Project description:OBJECTIVE: The National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) is a continuous, nationwide, household interview survey of the civilian noninstitutionalized population of the United States. This annual survey is conducted by the National Center for Health Statistics, part of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Since 1965, the survey and its supplements have provided data on issues related to the use of cigarettes and other tobacco products. This paper describes the survey, provides an overview of peer-reviewed and government-issued research that uses tobacco-related data from the NHIS, and suggests additional areas for exploration and directions for future research. DATA SOURCES: We performed literature searches using the PubMed database, selecting articles from 1966 to 2008. Study selection. Inclusion criteria were relevancy to tobacco research and primary use of NHIS data; 117 articles met these criteria. Data extraction and synthesis. Tobacco-related data from the NHIS have been used to analyze smoking prevalence and trends; attitudes, knowledge, and beliefs; initiation; cessation and advice to quit; health care practices; health consequences; secondhand smoke exposure; and use of smokeless tobacco. To date, use of these data has had broad application; however, great potential still exists for additional use. CONCLUSION: NHIS data provide information that can be useful to both practitioners and researchers. It is important to explore new and creative ways to best use these data and to address the full range of salient tobacco-related topics. Doing so will better inform future tobacco control research and programs.
Project description:BackgroundSince 2003, the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) has been the most ambitious initiative to address the global HIV epidemic. However, the effect of PEPFAR on HIV-related outcomes is unknown.ObjectiveTo assess the effect of PEPFAR on HIV-related deaths, the number of people living with HIV, and HIV prevalence in sub-Saharan Africa.DesignComparison of trends before and after the initiation of PEPFAR's activities.Setting12 African focus countries and 29 control countries with a generalized HIV epidemic from 1997 to 2007 (451 country-year observations).InterventionA 5-year, $15 billion program for HIV treatment, prevention, and care that started in late 2003.MeasurementsHIV-related deaths, the number of people living with HIV, and HIV prevalence.ResultsBetween 2004 and 2007, the difference in the annual change in the number of HIV-related deaths was 10.5% lower in the focus countries than in the control countries (P = 0.001). The difference in trends between the groups before 2003 was not significant. The annual growth in the number of people living with HIV was 3.7% slower in the focus countries than in the control countries from 1997 to 2002 (P = 0.05), but during PEPFAR's activities, the difference was no longer significant. The difference in the change in HIV prevalence did not significantly differ throughout the study period. These estimates were stable after sensitivity analysis.LimitationThe selection of the focus countries was not random, which limits the generalizability of the results.ConclusionAfter 4 years of PEPFAR activity, HIV-related deaths decreased in sub-Saharan African focus countries compared with control countries, but trends in adult prevalence did not differ. Assessment of epidemiologic effectiveness should be part of PEPFAR's evaluation programs.Primary funding sourceAgency for Healthcare Research and Quality.
Project description:BackgroundAlthough significant progress has been made in reducing malaria transmission globally in recent years, a large number of people remain at risk and hence the gains made are fragile. Funding lags well behind amounts needed to protect all those at risk and ongoing contributions from major donors, such as the President's Malaria Initiative (PMI), are vital to maintain progress and pursue further reductions in burden. We use a mathematical modelling approach to estimate the impact of PMI investments to date in reducing malaria burden and to explore the potential negative impact on malaria burden should a proposed 44% reduction in PMI funding occur.Methods and findingsWe combined an established mathematical model of Plasmodium falciparum transmission dynamics with epidemiological, intervention, and PMI-financing data to estimate the contribution PMI has made to malaria control via funding for long-lasting insecticide treated nets (LLINs), indoor residual spraying (IRS), and artemisinin combination therapies (ACTs). We estimate that PMI has prevented 185 million (95% CrI: 138 million, 230 million) malaria cases and saved 940,049 (95% CrI: 545,228, 1.4 million) lives since 2005. If funding is maintained, PMI-funded interventions are estimated to avert a further 162 million (95% CrI: 116 million, 194 million) cases, saving a further 692,589 (95% CrI: 392,694, 955,653) lives between 2017 and 2020. With an estimate of US$94 (95% CrI: US$51, US$166) per Disability Adjusted Life Year (DALY) averted, PMI-funded interventions are highly cost-effective. We also demonstrate the further impact of this investment by reducing caseloads on health systems. If a 44% reduction in PMI funding were to occur, we predict that this loss of direct aid could result in an additional 67 million (95% CrI: 49 million, 82 million) cases and 290,649 (95% CrI: 167,208, 395,263) deaths between 2017 and 2020. We have not modelled indirect impacts of PMI funding (such as health systems strengthening) in this analysis.ConclusionsOur model estimates that PMI has played a significant role in reducing malaria cases and deaths since its inception. Reductions in funding to PMI could lead to large increases in the number of malaria cases and deaths, damaging global goals of malaria control and elimination.
Project description:Social media has arguably shifted political agenda-setting power away from mainstream media onto politicians. Current U.S. President Trump's reliance on Twitter is unprecedented, but the underlying implications for agenda setting are poorly understood. Using the president as a case study, we present evidence suggesting that President Trump's use of Twitter diverts crucial media (The New York Times and ABC News) from topics that are potentially harmful to him. We find that increased media coverage of the Mueller investigation is immediately followed by Trump tweeting increasingly about unrelated issues. This increased activity, in turn, is followed by a reduction in coverage of the Mueller investigation-a finding that is consistent with the hypothesis that President Trump's tweets may also successfully divert the media from topics that he considers threatening. The pattern is absent in placebo analyses involving Brexit coverage and several other topics that do not present a political risk to the president. Our results are robust to the inclusion of numerous control variables and examination of several alternative explanations, although the generality of the successful diversion must be established by further investigation.
Project description:Abstract For over a decade, address-based sampling (ABS) frames have often been used to draw samples for multistage area sample surveys in lieu of traditionally listed (or enumerated) address frames. However, it is well known that the use of ABS frames for face-to-face surveys suffer from undercoverage due to, for example, households that receive mail via a PO Box rather than being delivered to the household’s street address. Undercoverage of ABS frames has typically been more prominent in rural areas but can also occur in urban areas where recent construction of households has taken place. Procedures have been developed to supplement ABS frames to address this undercoverage. In this article, we investigate a procedure called Address Coverage Enhancement (ACE) that supplements the ABS frame with addresses not found on the frame, and the resulting effects the addresses added to the sample through ACE have on estimates. Weighted estimates from two studies, the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study and the 2017 US Program for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies, are calculated with and without supplemental addresses. Estimates are then calculated to assess if poststratifying analysis weights to control for urbanicity at the person level brings estimates closer to estimates from the supplemented frame. Our findings show that the noncoverage bias was likely minimal across both studies for a range of estimates. The main reason is because the Computerized Delivery Sequence file coverage rate is high, and when the coverage rate is high, only very large differences between the covered and not covered will result in meaningful bias.
Project description:Antimalarial drug resistance is an evolving global health security threat to malaria control. Early detection of Plasmodium falciparum resistance through therapeutic efficacy studies and associated genetic analyses may facilitate timely implementation of intervention strategies. The US President's Malaria Initiative-supported Antimalarial Resistance Monitoring in Africa Network has assisted numerous laboratories in partner countries in acquiring the knowledge and capability to independently monitor for molecular markers of antimalarial drug resistance.
Project description:BackgroundPharmacovigilance programmes can monitor and help ensure the safe use of medicines that are critical to the success of global public health programmes. The widespread deployment of artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) by national malaria control programmes as part of the overall Global Malaria Action Plan for malaria control to elimination and eradication makes ACT an excellent candidate for pharmacovigilance activities. In 2008, The Roll Back Malaria partnership issued guidelines for inclusion of pharmacovigilance in Global Fund and other related proposals. In light of this recommendation and the rapid scale-up of ACT worldwide, an analysis of Global Fund Round 8 proposals and the President's Malaria Initiative (PMI) 2009 Malaria Operational Plans was conducted to assess if and how pharmacovigilance has been incorporated into countries' national malaria plans and donor budget requests.MethodsThe Global Fund-Malaria Round 8 proposals for the 26 countries and the PMI Malaria Operational Plans (MOPs) for fiscal year 2009 for the 15 countries that were approved and received funding from either the Global Fund-Malaria Round 8 or PMI were accessed through the programme websites. The analysis consisted of conducting word counts and key word in context analyses of each proposal and plan.ResultsTwelve out of 26 (46%) of the Global Fund proposals mentioned that established pharmacovigilance systems were present in their countries. Four of the fifteen PMI MOPs (27%) mentioned that established pharmacovigilance systems were present in their countries. Only seven of the 26 (27%) Global Fund proposals included a request for funding for new or current pharmacovigilance activities. Seven of 15 (47%) MOPs included a request for funding for pharmacovigilance activities.ConclusionsThere were relatively few requests for funding for pharmacovigilance activities, demonstrating a lack of emphasis placed on pharmacovigilance systems in recipient countries. The findings stress the need for more active direction to strengthen active surveillance and passive adverse event reporting systems to augment the issuance of guidance documents.
Project description:Bacterial infections have been traditionally controlled by antibiotics and vaccines, and these approaches have greatly improved health and longevity. However, multiple stakeholders are declaring that the lack of new interventions is putting our ability to prevent and treat bacterial infections at risk. Vaccine and antibiotic approaches still have the potential to address this threat. Innovative vaccine technologies, such as reverse vaccinology, novel adjuvants, and rationally designed bacterial outer membrane vesicles, together with progress in polysaccharide conjugation and antigen design, have the potential to boost the development of vaccines targeting several classes of multidrug-resistant bacteria. Furthermore, new approaches to deliver small-molecule antibacterials into bacteria, such as hijacking active uptake pathways and potentiator approaches, along with a focus on alternative modalities, such as targeting host factors, blocking bacterial virulence factors, monoclonal antibodies, and microbiome interventions, all have potential. Both vaccines and antibacterial approaches are needed to tackle the global challenge of antimicrobial resistance (AMR), and both areas have the underpinning science to address this need. However, a concerted research agenda and rethinking of the value society puts on interventions that save lives, by preventing or treating life-threatening bacterial infections, are needed to bring these ideas to fruition.
Project description:Animals traversing different environments encounter both stable background stimuli and novel cues, which are thought to be detected by primary sensory neurons and then distinguished by downstream brain circuits. Here we show that each of the ~1000 olfactory sensory neuron (OSN) subtypes in the mouse harbors a distinct transcriptome whose content is precisely determined by interactions between its odorant receptor and the environment. This transcriptional variation is systematically organized to support sensory adaptation: expression levels of more than 70 genes relevant to transforming odors into spikes continuously vary across OSN subtypes, dynamically adjust to new environments over hours, and accurately predict acute OSN-specific odor responses. The sensory periphery therefore separates salient signals from predictable background via a transcriptional rheostat whose moment-to-moment state reflects the past and constrains the future; these findings suggest a general model in which structured transcriptional variation within a cell type reflects individual experience.