Dataset Information

Seasonal shift in epidemics of respiratory syncytial virus infection in Japan.

ABSTRACT: In Japan, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection generally has occurred during autumn and winter. However, a possible change in the seasonal trend of RSV infection has been observed recently. The current study was conducted to determine whether the epidemic season of RSV infection in Japan has indeed changed significantly. We used expectation-based Poisson scan statistics to detect periods with high weekly reported RSV cases (epidemic cluster), and the epidemic clusters were detected between September and December in the 2012-2016 seasons while those were detected between July and October in the 2017-2019 seasons. Non-linear and linear ordinary least squares regression models were built to evaluate whether there is a difference in year trend in the epidemic seasonality, and the epidemic season was shifted to earlier in the year in 2017-2019 compared to that in 2012-2016. Although the reason for the shift is unclear, this information may help in clinical practice and public health.

SUBMITTER: Miyama T

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8060823 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Similar Datasets

Project description:Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of lower respiratory tract infection in young children worldwide. An annual epidemic of RSV infection generally begins around autumn, reaching a peak at the end of year in Japan, but in 2017 it started in early July and peaked in September. As the onset timing of RSV season varies, it is important to detect the beginning of an epidemic, to enable the implementation of preventive measures. However, there are currently no specified criteria or methods to determine the onset of RSV season in a timely manner. Therefore, we developed a model to detect the epidemic onset, based on data from the Infectious Diseases Weekly Report from 2012 to 2017. The 47 prefectures of Japan span 11 climate zones, which affect the timing of epidemic onset. Therefore, the onset of RSV season was assessed separately in each prefecture. Non-linear regression analysis was performed to generate a mathematical model of the annual epidemic cycle for each prefecture. A search index was used to determine the onset of RSV season, which was estimated using the number of RSV reports per week within an epidemic period (RSV-reports/w) and the number of reported cases included within an epidemic period relative to the total number of RSV reports (capture rate). A number of RSV-reports/w, which was used as a threshold (a number at onset line) to determine the condition of the onset of RSV season, was then estimated based on the search index. The mean number at the onset of RSV season for 47 prefectures was 29.7 reports/week (median 21.0, range 6.0-121.0 reports/ week). The model also showed that the onset of RSV season in 2017 was more than 1 month earlier than the previous year. In conclusion, the model detected epidemic cycles and their onset conditions in all prefectures, despite the 11 climate zones of Japan. The results are expected to contribute to infant medical care by allowing medical personnel to take preventive measures promptly at the beginning of the epidemic RSV season.

Dataset Information

Seasonal shift in epidemics of respiratory syncytial virus infection in Japan.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets