Dataset Information

Projections of disability-adjusted life years for major diseases due to a change in vegetable intake in 2017-2040 in Japan.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Low vegetable intake is one of the key dietary risk factors known to be associated with a range of health problems, including cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), cancer, and diabetes and kidney diseases (DKDs). Using data from Japan's National Health and Nutrition Surveys and the Global Burden of Diseases study in 2017, this study aimed to forecast the impact of change in vegetable intake on disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) between 2017 and 2040 for three diseases.

Methods

We generated a three-component model of cause-specific DALYs, including changes in major behavioural and metabolic risk predictors, the socio-demographic index and an autoregressive integrated moving average model to project future DALY rates for 2017-2040 using the data between 1990 and 2016. Data on Vegetable consumption and risk predictors, and DALY rate were obtained from Japan's National Health and Nutrition Surveys and the Global Burden of Diseases Study in 2017. We also modelled three scenarios of better, moderate and worse cases to evaluate the impact of change in vegetable consumption on the DALY rates for three diseases (CVDs, cancer, and DKDs).

Results

Projected mean vegetable intake in the total population showed a decreasing trend through 2040 to 237.7 g/day. A significant difference between the reference scenario and the better case scenario was observed with un-overlapped 95% prediction intervals of DALY rates in females aged 20-49 years (- 8.0%) for CVDs, the total population for cancer (- 5.6%), and in males (- 8.2%) and females (- 13.7%) for DKDs.

Conclusions

Our analysis indicates that increased vegetable consumption would have a significant reduction in the burdens of CVDs, cancer and DKDs in Japan. By estimating the disease burden attributable to low vegetable intake under different scenarios of future vegetable consumption, our study can inform the design of targeted interventions for public health challenges.

SUBMITTER: Tanaka S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8061031 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Similar Datasets

Project description:BackgroundIn Japan, a high-sodium diet is the most important dietary risk factor and is known to cause a range of health problems. This study aimed to forecast Japan's disability-adjusted life year (DALYs) for chronic diseases that would be associated with high-sodium diet in different future scenarios of salt intake. We modelled DALY forecast and alternative future scenarios of salt intake for cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), chronic kidney diseases (CKDs), and stomach cancer (SC) from 2017 to 2040.MethodsWe developed a three-component model of disease-specific DALYs: a component on the changes in major behavioural and metabolic risk predictors including salt intake; a component on the income per person, educational attainment, and total fertility rate under 25 years; and an autoregressive integrated moving average model to capture the unexplained component correlated over time. Data on risk predictors were obtained from Japan's National Health and Nutrition Surveys and from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. To generate a reference forecast of disease-specific DALY rates for 2017-2040, we modelled the three diseases using the data for 1990-2016. Additionally, we generated better, moderate, and worse scenarios to evaluate the impact of change in salt intake on the DALY rate for the diseases.ResultsIn our reference forecast, the DALY rates across all ages were predicted to be stable for CVDs, continuously increasing for CKDs, and continuously decreasing for SC. Meanwhile, the age group-specific DALY rates for these three diseases were forecasted to decrease, with some exceptions. Except for the ≥70 age group, there were remarkable differences in DALY rates between scenarios, with the best scenario having the lowest DALY rates in 2040 for SC. This represents a wide scope of future trajectories by 2040 with a potential for tremendous decrease in SC burden.ConclusionsThe gap between scenarios provides some quantification of the range of policy impacts on future trajectories of salt intake. Even though we do not yet know the policy mix used to achieve these scenarios, the result that there can be differences between scenarios means that policies today can have a significant impact on the future DALYs.

Project description:Aims/hypothesisType 2 diabetes can lead to reduced productivity during working age. We aimed to estimate productive life years lost associated with type 2 diabetes on the individual and population level in Germany in 2020 and 2040, while accounting for future trends in mortality.MethodsBased on a mathematical projection model, we estimated age- and sex-specific productivity losses associated with type 2 diabetes during working age (20-69 years) in Germany in 2020 and 2040. Productivity losses in terms of excess mortality (years of life lost, YLL) and reductions in labour force participation, presenteeism and absenteeism (years of productivity lost, YPL) were summed to calculate productivity-adjusted life years (PALY) lost. Input data for the projection were based on meta-analyses, representative population-based studies and population projections to account for future trends in mortality.ResultsCompared with a person without type 2 diabetes, mean PALY lost per person with type 2 diabetes in 2020 was 2.6 years (95% CI 2.3, 3.0). Of these 2.6 years, 0.4 (95% CI 0.3, 0.4) years were lost due to YLL and 2.3 (95% CI 1.9, 2.6) years were lost due to YPL. Age- and sex-specific results show that younger age groups and women are expected to lose more productive life years than older age groups and men. Population-wide estimates suggest that 4.60 (95% CI 4.58, 4.63) million people with prevalent type 2 diabetes in 2020 are expected to lose 12.06 (95% CI 10.42, 13.76) million PALY (1.62 million years due to YLL and 10.44 million years due to YPL). In 2040, individual-level PALY lost are projected to slightly decrease due to reductions in YLL. In contrast, population-wide PALY lost are projected to increase to 15.39 (95% CI 13.19, 17.64) million due to an increase in the number of people with type 2 diabetes to 5.45 (95% CI 5.41, 5.50) million.Conclusions/interpretationOn the population level, a substantial increase in productivity burden associated with type 2 diabetes was projected for Germany between 2020 and 2040. Efforts to reduce the incidence rate of type 2 diabetes and diabetes-related complications may attenuate this increase.

Project description:BackgroundThe Chinese population has aged significantly in the last few decades. Comprehensive health losses including both fatal and non-fatal health outcomes associated with ageing in China have not been detailed.MethodsBased on freely accessible disability adjusted life years (DALYs) estimated by the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) 2017, we adopted a robust decomposition method that ascribes changes in DALYs in any given country across two time points to changes resulting from three sources: population size, age structure, and age-specific DALYs rate per 100,000 population. Using the method, we calculated DALYs associated with population ageing in China from 1990 to 2017 and examined the counteraction between the effects of DALYs rate change and population ageing. This method extends previous work through attributing the change in DALYs to the three sources.ResultsPopulation ageing was associated with 92.8 million DALYs between 1990 and 2017 in China, of which 65.8% (61.1 million) were years of life lost (YLLs). Males had comparatively more DALYs associated with population ageing than females in the study period. The five leading causes of DALYs associated with population ageing between 1990 and 2017 were stroke (23.6 million), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (18.3 million), ischemic heart disease (13.0 million), tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer (6.1 million) and liver cancer (5.0 million). Between 1990 and 2017, changes in DALYs associated with age-specific DALY rate reductions far exceeded those related to population ageing (- 196.2 million versus 92.8 million); 57.5% (- 112.8 million) of DALYs were caused by decreases in rates attributed to 84 modifiable risk factors.ConclusionPopulation ageing was associated with growing health loss in China from 1990 to 2017. Despite the recent progress in alleviating health loss associated with population ageing, the government should encourage scientific research on effective and affordable prevention and control strategies and should consider investment in resources to implement strategies nationwide to address the future challenge of population ageing.

Project description:BackgroundTaenia solium is the most significant global foodborne parasite and the leading cause of preventable human epilepsy in low and middle-income countries in the form of neurocysticercosis.ObjectivesThis scoping review aimed to examine the methodology of peer-reviewed studies that estimate the burden of T. solium using disability-adjusted life years.Eligibility criteriaStudies must have calculated disability-adjusted life years relating to T. solium.Charting methodsThe review process was managed by a single reviewer using Rayyan. Published data relating to disease models, data sources, disability-adjusted life years, sensitivity, uncertainty, missing data, and key limitations were collected.Results15 studies were included for review, with seven global and eight national or sub-national estimates. Studies primarily employed attributional disease models that relied on measuring the occurrence of epilepsy before applying an attributable fraction to estimate the occurrence of neurocysticercosis-associated epilepsy. This method relies heavily on the extrapolation of observational studies across populations and time periods; however, it is currently required due to the difficulties in diagnosing neurocysticercosis. Studies discussed that a lack of data was a key limitation and their results likely underestimate the true burden of T. solium. Methods to calculate disability-adjusted life years varied across studies with differences in approaches to time discounting, age weighting, years of life lost, and years of life lived with disability. Such differences limit the ability to compare estimates between studies.ConclusionsThis review illustrates the complexities associated with T. solium burden of disease studies and highlights the potential need for a burden of disease reporting framework. The burden of T. solium is likely underestimated due to the challenges in diagnosing neurocysticercosis and a lack of available data. Advancement in diagnostics, further observational studies, and new approaches to parameterising disease models are required if estimates are to improve.

Project description:AimEating disorders have increasingly become a public health concern globally. This study aimed to reveal the burden of eating disorders at the global, regional and national levels using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2017 data.MethodsWe extracted the age-standardised rates (ASRs) of prevalence and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and their 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) of eating disorders, including anorexia nervosa and bulimia nervosa, between 1990 and 2017 from the GBD 2017 data. The estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were calculated to quantify the secular trends of the burden of eating disorders.ResultsThe ASRs of prevalence and the DALYs of eating disorders continuously increased worldwide from 1990 to 2017 by an average of 0.65 (95% UI: 0.59-0.71) and 0.66 (95% UI: 0.60-0.72), respectively. The burden of eating disorders was higher in females than in males, but the increment in ASRs was greater in males than in females over time. In 2017, the highest burden of eating disorders was observed in the high sociodemographic index (SDI) regions, especially Australasia (ASR of prevalence = 807.13, 95% UI: 664.20-982.30; ASR of DALYs = 170.74, 95% UI: 113.43-244.14, per 100 000 population), Western Europe and high-income North America. However, the most significant increment of the burden of eating disorders was observed in East Asia (EAPC for prevalence = 2.23, 95% UI: 2.14-2.32; EAPC for DALYs = 2.22, 95% UI: 2.13-2.31), followed by South Asia. An increasing trend in the burden of eating disorders at the national level was observed among most countries or territories. The countries with the top three highest increasing trends were Equatorial Guinea, Bosnia and Herzegovina and China. Positive associations were found between the burden estimates and the SDI levels in almost all geographic regions during the observed 28-year period. We also found that the human development indexes in 2017 were positively correlated with the EAPCs of the ASRs of prevalence (ρ = 0.222, P = 0.002) and DALYs (ρ = 0.208, P = 0.003).ConclusionThe highest burden of eating disorders remains in the high-income western countries, but an increasing trend was observed globally and in all SDI-quintiles, especially in Asian regions that were highly populous. These results could help governments worldwide formulate suitable medical and health policies for the prevention and early intervention of eating disorders.