Leveraging community mortality indicators to infer COVID-19 mortality and transmission dynamics in Damascus, Syria.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Watson OJ
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8062464 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:ObjectivesThe decade-long Syrian war led to fragile health infrastructures lacking in personal and physical resources. The public health of the Syrian population was, therefore, vulnerable to the COVID-19 pandemic, which devastated even well-resourced healthcare systems. Nevertheless, the officially reported incidence and fatality rates were significantly lower than the forecasted numbers.DesignA retrospective cohort study.SettingThe four main responding hospitals in Damascus, which received most of the cases during the first pandemic wave in Syria (i.e., June-August 2020).ParticipantsOne thousand one hundred eighty-four patients who were managed as inpatient COVID-19 cases.Primary and secondary outcome measuresThe records of hospitalised patients were screened for clinical history, vital signs, diagnosis modality, major interventions and status at discharge.ResultsThe diagnostic and therapeutic preparedness for COVID-19 was significantly heterogeneous among the different centres and depleted rapidly after the arrival of the first wave. Only 32% of the patients were diagnosed based on positive reverse transcription-PCR tests. Five hundred twenty-six patients had an indication for intensive care unit admission, but only 82% of them received it. Two hundred fifty-seven patients needed mechanical ventilation, but ventilators were not available to 14% of them, all of whom died. Overall mortality during hospitalisation reached 46% and no significant difference was found in fatality between those who received and did not receive these care options.ConclusionsThe Syrian healthcare system expressed minor resilience in facing the COVID-19 pandemic, as its assets vanished swiftly with a limited number of cases. This forced physicians to reserve resources (e.g., ventilators) for the most severe cases, which led to poor outcomes of in-hospital management and limited the admission capacity for milder cases. The overwhelmed system additionally suffered from constrained coordination, suboptimal allocation of the accessible resources and a severe inability to informatively report on the catastrophic pandemic course in Syria.
| S-EPMC10360434 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Dengue is an arbovirus affecting global populations. Frequent outbreaks occur, especially in equatorial cities such as Singapore, where year-round tropical climate, large daily influx of travelers and population density provide the ideal conditions for dengue to transmit. Little work has, however, quantified the peaks of dengue outbreaks, when health systems are likely to be most stretched. Nor have methods been developed to infer differences in exogenous factors which lead to the rise and fall of dengue case counts across extreme and non-extreme periods. In this paper, we developed time varying extreme mixture (tvEM) methods to account for the temporal dependence of dengue case counts across extreme and non-extreme periods. This approach permits inference of differences in climatic forcing across non-extreme and extreme periods of dengue case counts, quantification of their temporal dependence as well as estimation of thresholds with associated uncertainties to determine dengue case count extremities. Using tvEM, we found no evidence that weather affects dengue case counts in the near term for non-extreme periods, but that it has non-linear and mixed signals in influencing dengue through tvEM parameters in the extreme periods. Using the most appropriate tvEM specification, we found that a threshold at the 70th (95% credible interval 41.1, 83.8) quantile is optimal, with extreme events of 526.6, 1052.2 and 1183.6 weekly case counts expected at return periods of 5, 50 and 75 years. Weather parameters at a 1% scaled increase was found to decrease the long-run expected case counts, but larger increases would lead to a drastic expected rise from the baseline correspondingly. The tvEM approach can provide valuable inference on the extremes of time series, which in the case of infectious disease notifications, allows public health officials to understand the likely scale of outbreaks in the long run.
| S-EPMC7595636 | biostudies-literature
Project description:For most pathogens, transmission is driven by interactions between the behaviours of infectious individuals, the behaviours of the wider population, the local environment, and immunity. Phylogeographic approaches are currently unable to disentangle the relative effects of these competing factors. We develop a spatiotemporally structured phylogenetic framework that addresses these limitations by considering individual transmission events, reconstructed across spatial scales. We apply it to geocoded dengue virus sequences from Thailand (N = 726 over 18 years). We find infected individuals spend 96% of their time in their home community compared to 76% for the susceptible population (mainly children) and 42% for adults. Dynamic pockets of local immunity make transmission more likely in places with high heterotypic immunity and less likely where high homotypic immunity exists. Age-dependent mixing of individuals and vector distributions are not important in determining spread. This approach provides previously unknown insights into one of the most complex disease systems known and will be applicable to other pathogens.
| S-EPMC7985522 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Successful detection of SARS-COV-2 in wastewater suggests the potential utility of wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) for COVID-19 community surveillance. This systematic review aims to assess the performance of wastewater surveillance as early warning system of COVID-19 community transmission. A systematic search was conducted in PubMed, Medline, Embase and the WBE Consortium Registry according to PRISMA guidelines for relevant articles published until 31st July 2021. Relevant data were extracted and summarized. Quality of each paper was assessed using an assessment tool adapted from Bilotta et al.'s tool for environmental science. Of 763 studies identified, 92 studies distributed across 34 countries were shortlisted for qualitative synthesis. A total of 26,197 samples were collected between January 2020 and May 2021 from various locations serving population ranging from 321 to 11,400,000 inhabitants. Overall sample positivity was moderate at 29.2% in all examined settings with the spike (S) gene having maximum rate of positive detections and nucleocapsid (N) gene being the most targeted. Wastewater signals preceded confirmed cases by up to 63 days, with 13 studies reporting sample positivity before the first cases were detected in the community. At least 50 studies reported an association of viral load with community cases. While wastewater surveillance cannot replace large-scale diagnostic testing, it can complement clinical surveillance by providing early signs of potential transmission for more active public health responses. However, more studies using standardized and validated methods are required along with risk analysis and modelling to understand the dynamics of viral outbreaks.
| S-EPMC8423771 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe main way to prevent blindness from Glaucoma is by early detection and diagnosis; and to do so the awareness must be raised among people where Glaucoma is defined as an acquired chronic optic neuropathy characterized by optic disk cupping and visual field loss. Lack of knowledge about this disease is one of the most important reasons that made it develop to advanced stages. Based on that, we conducted scientific research to assess peoples' awareness and knowledge about Glaucoma. After reviewing the literature, it was found that this study is the first in Syria.MethodsWe conducted a cross-sectional study in May 2022. The study included participants, who are above 20 years old, from visitors of Al-Mouwasat University Hospital in Damascus, Syria. During one week, Data was gathered according to the questionnaire, which was presented through face-to-face interviews with participants. We have allocated one point (1) to each question. Three levels of knowledge were adopted, namely; weak level from (0) to (3), average level from (4) to (7) and good level from (8) to (11). Associations between participants' demographic and other details were tested using Chi-square test and other tests, and a p-value of < 0.05 was considered significant.ResultsA total of 500 participants were interviewed. For awareness of Glaucoma, 33.6% of the participants (n = 168) had heard of Glaucoma, and 66.4% hadn't (n = 332). Mean test results for the knowledge of Glaucoma was 1.62 out of 11, and only 8% of participants (n = 40) had a good knowledge of Glaucoma. Education Level, governorate, and department of hospital that the patient came for significantly affected the knowledge of Glaucoma. Moreover, hospital, Ophthalmologists' Clinics, and health staff (M = 5.45) were the better Resource for information than family, relatives, and friends (M = 3.16). Finally, social media and the Internet group had the lowest mean test results (M = 1.23). These test results were significant, with a p-value < 0.001.ConclusionThe percentage of knowledge and awareness was significantly low. Organized community awareness methods must disseminate more ability to increase the general public's understanding to avoid injury and late diagnosis of Glaucoma.
| S-EPMC9830819 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Tuberculosis (TB) killed more people globally than any other single pathogen over the past decade. Where surveillance is weak, estimating TB burden estimates uses modeling. In many African countries, increases in HIV prevalence and antiretroviral therapy have driven dynamic TB epidemics, complicating estimation of burden, trends, and potential intervention impact. We therefore develop a novel age-structured TB transmission model incorporating evolving demographic, HIV and antiretroviral therapy effects, and calibrate to TB prevalence and notification data from 12 African countries. We use Bayesian methods to include uncertainty for all TB model parameters, and estimate age-specific annual risks of TB infection, finding up to 16.0%/year in adults, and the proportion of TB incidence from recent (re)infection, finding a mean across countries of 34%. Rapid reduction of the unacceptably high burden of TB in high HIV prevalence settings will require interventions addressing progression as well as transmission.
| S-EPMC10037365 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundEliminating mother-to-child HIV-transmission (EMTCT) implies a case rate target of new pediatric HIV-infections< 50/100,000 live-births and a transmission rate < 5%. We assessed these indicators at community-level in Mozambique, where MTCT is the second highest globally..MethodsA cross-sectional household survey was conducted within the Manhiça Health Demographic Surveillance System in Mozambique (October 2017-April 2018). Live births in the previous 4 years were randomly selected, and mother/child HIV-status was ascertained through documentation or age-appropriate testing. Estimates on prevalence and transmission were adjusted by multiple imputation chained equation (MICE) for participants with missing HIV-status. Retrospective cumulative mortality rate and risk factors were estimate by Fine-Gray model.ResultsAmong 5000 selected mother-child pairs, 3486 consented participate. Community HIV-prevalence estimate in mothers after MICE adjustment was 37.6% (95%CI:35.8-39.4%). Estimates doubled in adolescents aged < 19 years (from 8.0 to 19.1%) and increased 1.5-times in mothers aged < 25 years. Overall adjusted vertical HIV-transmission at the time of the study were 4.4% (95% CI:3.1-5.7%) in HIV-exposed children (HEC). Pediatric case rate-infection was estimated at 1654/100,000 live-births. Testing coverage in HEC was close to 96.0%; however, only 69.1% of them were tested early(< 2 months of age). Cumulative child mortality rate was 41.6/1000 live-births. HIV-positive status and later birth order were significantly associated with death. Neonatal complications, HIV and pneumonia were main pediatric causes of death.ConclusionsIn Mozambique, SPECTRUM modeling estimated 15% MTCT, higher than our district-level community-based estimates of MTCT among HIV-exposed children. Community-based subnational assessments of progress towards EMTCT are needed to complement clinic-based and modeling estimates.
| S-EPMC7970736 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Assessing the impact of war on medical residents' specialty choices and migration decisions is critical to ensure the sustainability of healthcare systems worldwide. This study aimed to evaluate the effect of the Syrian crisis on specialty choices, related factors, and decisions to work in Syria among residents of six major university hospitals in Damascus. A cross-sectional study was conducted using a validated questionnaire from 20/4/2022 to 20/5/2022, including all eligible residents with no missing data. The questionnaire was comprised of 68 items, and residents were divided into two groups: group 1 included residents who made their specialty choice after the end of the military war in Damascus 2018, while group 2 included residents who made their specialty choice (the point of submitting their lists and applying for residency) during the war. A total of 370 residents were included, with 38.4% females and 61.6% males. Our findings revealed that 30% of residents preferred working in Syria, while 43.5% preferred working abroad. The factor of a "safer and more stable life" was significantly higher in Group 1 than in Group 2 (3.86>3.5, p-value = 0.026). Additionally, Group 1 residents were more likely to choose radiology, pathology, laboratory, and psychiatry specialization as their specialties, while choosing surgical specializations and hematology decreased compared to Group 2 (p-value<0.05). Factors related to social life were rated higher by group 1 (mean = 3.31) than by group 2 (mean = 2.27, Standard deviation = 0.19, p-value = 0.002). Moreover, the factor of "a specialization to facilitate traveling abroad" was significantly higher in Group 1 (2.69>2.21, Standard deviation = 0.22, p-value = 0.033). The Syrian crisis and its economic aftermath have influenced residents' specialty choices and practice locations. Even after the war's end, the high level of migration intentions could negatively affect the quality of provided healthcare services.
| S-EPMC10852239 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe awareness of diabetes mellitus (DM) and its complications, especially diabetic retinopathy (DR), is the key to reducing their burden. This study aimed to assess both the awareness of diabetic outpatients and their action towards periodic eye exam, and to determine the causes of non-compliance amongst patients who were aware. Because the Syrian Crisis affected all aspects of Syrians' life, the study aimed to determine the crisis' effects on patients' care-seeking behavior. Our study was the first step in paving the way of prevention strategies.MethodsThis observational cross-section study was conducted on 260 patients with DM who were visiting the four main hospitals in the Syrian capital, Damascus between August and November 2017.ResultsThe mean (±SD) age of participants was 54.3(±12.8) years. Females were more than half (56.2%). The majority were from areas outside Damascus (72.3%). The mean (±SD) DM duration was 10.6 (±7.1) years. Almost all patients (93.8%) thought that DM could affect the eye. 67.3% believed that it could cause blindness. 86.9% of the patients conceived that DM patients should visit an ophthalmologist regularly. 37% did not visit any ophthalmologists at all, while 63% reported they had visited their ophthalmologists. Only 21.5% had a regular eye exam. Gender, educational level, economic status, province, and family history of DM had statistically an insignificant relation with an ophthalmologist visit. The preponderance of the patients who haven't visited regularly did not appreciate the necessity of regular eye exam. Diabetic neuropathy was the most common complication of DM that patients were aware of (92%) and suffered from (56.5%). Meanwhile, regarding the effects of the Syrian Crisis: 41.2% of diabetic patients had stopped their medications for at least one month, mainly because the drugs were unavailable (74.7% of them), as some drug companies had been destroyed. Half of the patients had struggled to reach a medical care center. Half of the patients had been displaced, two-third of them were from outside Damascus.ConclusionA screening program for DR should be initiated. Also, awareness about DM and its complications, especially DR, should be raised through doctors and media.
| S-EPMC6683401 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectivesFollowing well-established practices in demography, this article discusses several measures based on the number of COVID-19 deaths to facilitate comparisons over time and across populations.SettingsNational populations in 186 United Nations countries and territories and populations in first-level subnational administrative entities in Brazil, China, Italy, Mexico, Peru, Spain and the USA.ParticipantsNone (death statistics only).Primary and secondary outcome measuresAn unstandardised occurrence/exposure rate comparable to the Crude Death Rate; an indirectly age-and-sex standardised rate that can be derived even when the breakdown of COVID-19 deaths by age and sex required for direct standardisation is unavailable; the reduction in life expectancy at birth corresponding to the 2020 number of COVID-19 deaths.ResultsTo date, the highest unstandardised rate has been in New York, at its peak exceeding the state 2017 crude death rate. Populations compare differently after standardisation: while parts of Italy, Spain and the USA have the highest unstandardised rates, parts of Mexico and Peru have the highest standardised rates. For several populations with the necessary data by age and sex for direct standardisation, we show that direct and indirect standardisation yield similar results. US life expectancy is estimated to have declined this year by more than a year (-1.26 years), far more than during the worst year of the HIV epidemic, or the worst 3?years of the opioid crisis, and to reach its lowest level since 2008. Substantially larger reductions, exceeding 2?years, are estimated for Panama, Peru, and parts of Italy, Spain, the USA and especially, Mexico.ConclusionsWith lesser demand on data than direct standardisation, indirect standardisation is a valid alternative to adjust international comparisons for differences in population distribution by sex and age-groups. A number of populations have experienced reductions in 2020 life expectancies that are substantial by recent historical standards.
| S-EPMC7948156 | biostudies-literature