Dataset Information

Development and validation of routine clinical laboratory data derived marker-based nomograms for the prediction of 5-year graft survival in kidney transplant recipients.

ABSTRACT:

Background

To develop and validate predictive nomograms for 5-year graft survival in kidney transplant recipients (KTRs) with easily-available laboratory data derived markers and clinical variables within the first year post-transplant.

Methods

The clinical and routine laboratory data from within the first year post-transplant of 1289 KTRs was collected to generate candidate predictors. Univariate and multivariate Cox analyses and LASSO were conducted to select final predictors. X-tile analysis was applied to identify optimal cutoff values to transform potential continuous factors into category variables and stratify patients. C-index, calibration curve, dynamic time-dependent AUC, decision curve analysis, and Kaplan-Meier curves were used to evaluate models' predictive accuracy and clinical utility.

Results

Two predictive nomograms were constructed by using 0-6- and 0-12- month laboratory data, and showed good predictive performance with C-indexes of 0.78 and 0.85, respectively, in the training cohort. Calibration curves showed that the prediction probabilities of 5-year graft survival were in concordance with actual observations. Additionally, KTRs could be successfully stratified into three risk groups by nomograms.

Conclusions

These predictive nomograms combining demographic and 0-6- or 0-12- month markers derived from post-transplant laboratory data could serve as useful tools for early identification of 5-year graft survival probability in individual KTRs.

SUBMITTER: Li Y

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8064213 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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