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Modelling of COVID-19 vaccination strategies and herd immunity, in scenarios of limited and full vaccine supply in NSW, Australia.

ABSTRACT: Several vaccines for SARS-CoV-2 are expected to be available in Australia in 2021. Initial supply is limited and will require a judicious vaccination strategy until supply is unrestricted. If vaccines have efficacy as post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) in contacts, this provides more policy options. We used a deterministic mathematical model of epidemic response with limited supply (age-targeted or ring vaccination) and mass vaccination for the State of New South Wales (NSW) in Australia. For targeted vaccination, the effectiveness of vaccinating health workers, young people and older adults was compared. For mass vaccination, we tested varying vaccine efficacy (VE) and distribution capacities. With a limited vaccine stockpile enough for 1 million people in NSW, if there is efficacy as PEP, the most efficient way to control COVID-19 will be ring vaccination, however at least 90% of contacts per case needs to be traced and vaccinated. Health worker vaccination is required for health system resilience. Age based strategies with restricted doses make minimal impact on the epidemic, but vaccinating older people prevents more deaths. Herd immunity can only be achieved with mass vaccination. With 90% VE against all infection, herd immunity can be achieved by vaccinating 66% of the population. A vaccine with less than 70% VE cannot achieve herd immunity and will result in ongoing risk of outbreaks. For mass vaccination, distributing at least 60,000 doses per day is required to achieve control. Slower rates of vaccination will result in the population living with COVID-19 longer, and higher cases and deaths.

SUBMITTER: MacIntyre CR

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8064825 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Modelling direct and herd protection effects of vaccination against the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant in Australia.

Project description:ObjectivesTo analyse the outcomes of COVID-19 vaccination by vaccine type, age group eligibility, vaccination strategy, and population coverage.DesignEpidemiologic modelling to assess the final size of a COVID-19 epidemic in Australia, with vaccination program (Pfizer, AstraZeneca, mixed), vaccination strategy (vulnerable first, transmitters first, untargeted), age group eligibility threshold (5 or 15 years), population coverage, and pre-vaccination effective reproduction number ( R eff v ¯ ) for the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant as factors.Main outcome measuresNumbers of SARS-CoV-2 infections; cumulative hospitalisations, deaths, and years of life lost.ResultsAssuming R eff v ¯ = 5, the current mixed vaccination program (vaccinating people aged 60 or more with the AstraZeneca vaccine and people under 60 with the Pfizer vaccine) will not achieve herd protection unless population vaccination coverage reaches 85% by lowering the vaccination eligibility age to 5 years. At R eff v ¯ = 3, the mixed program could achieve herd protection at 60-70% population coverage and without vaccinating 5-15-year-old children. At R eff v ¯ = 7, herd protection is unlikely to be achieved with currently available vaccines, but they would still reduce the number of COVID-19-related deaths by 85%.ConclusionVaccinating vulnerable people first is the optimal policy when population vaccination coverage is low, but vaccinating more socially active people becomes more important as the R eff v ¯ declines and vaccination coverage increases. Assuming the most plausible R eff v ¯ of 5, vaccinating more than 85% of the population, including children, would be needed to achieve herd protection. Even without herd protection, vaccines are highly effective in reducing the number of deaths.

| S-EPMC8662033 | biostudies-literature

Herd immunity and a vaccination game: An experimental study.

Project description:Would the affected communities voluntarily obtain herd immunity if a cure for COVID-19 was available? This paper experimentally investigates people's vaccination choices in the context of a nonlinear public good game. A "vaccination game" is defined in which costly commitments (vaccination) are required of a fraction of the population to reach the critical level needed for herd immunity, without which defectors are punished by the natural contagion of epidemics. Our experimental implementation of a vaccination game in a controlled laboratory setting reveals that endogenous epidemic punishment is a credible threat, resulting in voluntary vaccination to obtain herd immunity, for which the orthodox principle of positive externalities fails to account. The concave nature of the infection probability plays a key role in facilitating the elimination of an epidemic.

| S-EPMC7224512 | biostudies-literature

Modelling effectiveness of herd level vaccination against Q fever in dairy cattle.

Project description:Q fever is a worldwide zoonosis caused by the bacterium Coxiella burnetii. The control of this infection in cattle is crucial: infected ruminants can indeed encounter reproductive disorders and represent the most important source of human infection. In the field, vaccination is currently advised in infected herds but the comparative effectiveness of different vaccination protocols has never been explored: the duration of the vaccination programme and the category of animals to be vaccinated have to be determined. Our objective was to compare, by simulation, the effectiveness over 10 years of three different vaccination strategies in a recently infected dairy cattle herd.A stochastic individual-based epidemic model coupled with a model of herd demography was developed to simulate three temporal outputs (shedder prevalence, environmental bacterial load and number of abortions) and to calculate the extinction rate of the infection. For all strategies, the temporal outputs were predicted to strongly decrease with time at least in the first years of vaccination. However, vaccinating only three years was predicted inadequate to stabilize these dynamic outputs at a low level. Vaccination of both cows and heifers was predicted as being slightly more effective than vaccinating heifers only. Although the simulated extinction rate of the infection was high for both scenarios, the outputs decreased slower when only heifers were vaccinated.Our findings shed new light on vaccination effectiveness related to Q fever. Moreover, the model can be further modified for simulating and assessing various Q fever control strategies such as environmental and hygienic measures.

| S-EPMC3125226 | biostudies-literature

Herd immunity communication counters detrimental effects of selective vaccination mandates: Experimental evidence.

Project description:BackgroundLow vaccine uptake results in regular outbreaks of severe diseases, such as measles. Selective mandates, e.g. making measles vaccination mandatory (as currently implemented in Germany), could offer a viable solution to the problem. However, prior research has shown that making only some vaccinations mandatory, while leaving the rest to voluntary decisions, can result in psychological reactance (anger) and decreased uptake of voluntary vaccines. Since communicating the concept of herd immunity has been shown to increase willingness to vaccinate, this study assessed whether it can buffer such reactance effects.MethodsA total of N = 576 participants completed a preregistered 2 (policy: selective mandate vs. voluntary decision) × 2 (communication: herd immunity explained yes vs. no) factorial online experiment (AsPredicted #26007). In a first scenario, the concept of herd immunity was either introduced or not and vaccination either mandatory or voluntary, depending on condition. The dependent variable was the intention to vaccinate in the second scenario, where vaccination was always voluntary. Additionally, we explored the mediating role of anger between policies and intentions.FindingsHerd immunity communication generally increased vaccination intentions; selective mandates had no overall effect on intentions, and there was no interaction of the factors. However, selective mandates led to increased anger when herd immunity was not explained, leading in turn to lower subsequent vaccination intentions.InterpretationExplaining herd immunity can counter potential detrimental effects of selective mandates by preventing anger (reactance).FundingThis study was funded by the University of Erfurt and the German Research Foundation (BE-3979/11-1).

| S-EPMC7240331 | biostudies-literature

Herd Immunity to Ebolaviruses Is Not a Realistic Target for Current Vaccination Strategies.

Project description:The recent West African Ebola virus pandemic, which affected >28,000 individuals increased interest in anti-Ebolavirus vaccination programs. Here, we systematically analyzed the requirements for a prophylactic vaccination program based on the basic reproductive number (R0, i.e., the number of secondary cases that result from an individual infection). Published R0 values were determined by systematic literature research and ranged from 0.37 to 20. R0s???4 realistically reflected the critical early outbreak phases and superspreading events. Based on the R0, the herd immunity threshold (Ic) was calculated using the equation Ic?=?1?-?(1/R0). The critical vaccination coverage (Vc) needed to provide herd immunity was determined by including the vaccine effectiveness (E) using the equation Vc?=?Ic/E. At an R0 of 4, the Ic is 75% and at an E of 90%, more than 80% of a population need to be vaccinated to establish herd immunity. Such vaccination rates are currently unrealistic because of resistance against vaccinations, financial/logistical challenges, and a lack of vaccines that provide long-term protection against all human-pathogenic Ebolaviruses. Hence, outbreak management will for the foreseeable future depend on surveillance and case isolation. Clinical vaccine candidates are only available for Ebola viruses. Their use will need to be focused on health-care workers, potentially in combination with ring vaccination approaches.

| S-EPMC5954026 | biostudies-literature

Percentages of Vaccination Coverage Required to Establish Herd Immunity against SARS-CoV-2.

Project description:The pandemic associated with SARS-CoV-2 is a worldwide public health challenge. The WHO has proposed to achieve 70% COVID-19 vaccination coverage in all countries by mid-2022. Nevertheless, the prevention strategy based on COVID-19 vaccination and other applied prevention measures has not been sufficient to prevent SARS-CoV-2 epidemic waves. This study assessed the vaccination coverage that would be required to establish herd immunity against SARS-CoV-2, taking into account virus transmissibility (Ro values from 1.1 to 10) and COVID-19 vaccination effectiveness. The study found that high percentages of vaccination coverage and high levels of vaccination effectiveness are necessary to block the transmission of Omicron and other SARS-CoV-2 variants with greater infectious capacity. COVID-19 vaccination programs could establish herd immunity against SARS-CoV-2, with Ro values ranging from 3 to 10 and levels of COVID-19 vaccination effectiveness of 70-100%. Factors reducing COVID-19 vaccination effectiveness (emergent variants, infections among vaccinated individuals, high risk individuals) and factors increasing SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility (close settings) increased the percentages of vaccination coverage that would be required to establish herd immunity. Two measures should be implemented to establish herd immunity against SARS-CoV-2: (1) achieve ≥ 90% COVID-19 vaccination coverage in all countries worldwide, and (2) increase the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines in preventing Omicron infection to at least 88%.

| S-EPMC9144560 | biostudies-literature

Priority COVID-19 Vaccination for Patients with Cancer while Vaccine Supply Is Limited.

Project description:Published series on COVID-19 support the notion that patients with cancer are a particularly vulnerable population. There is a confluence of risk factors between cancer and COVID-19, and cancer care and treatments increase exposure to the virus and may dampen natural immune responses. The available evidence supports the conclusion that patients with cancer, in particular with hematologic malignancies, should be considered among the very high-risk groups for priority COVID-19 vaccination.

| S-EPMC8053003 | biostudies-literature

Prolonging herd immunity to cholera via vaccination: Accounting for human mobility and waning vaccine effects.

Project description:BackgroundOral cholera vaccination is an approach to preventing outbreaks in at-risk settings and controlling cholera in endemic settings. However, vaccine-derived herd immunity may be short-lived due to interactions between human mobility and imperfect or waning vaccine efficacy. As the supply and utilization of oral cholera vaccines grows, critical questions related to herd immunity are emerging, including: who should be targeted; when should revaccination be performed; and why have cholera outbreaks occurred in recently vaccinated populations?Methods and findingsWe use mathematical models to simulate routine and mass oral cholera vaccination in populations with varying degrees of migration, transmission intensity, and vaccine coverage. We show that migration and waning vaccine efficacy strongly influence the duration of herd immunity while birth and death rates have relatively minimal impacts. As compared to either periodic mass vaccination or routine vaccination alone, a community could be protected longer by a blended "Mass and Maintain" strategy. We show that vaccination may be best targeted at populations with intermediate degrees of mobility as compared to communities with very high or very low population turnover. Using a case study of an internally displaced person camp in South Sudan which underwent high-coverage mass vaccination in 2014 and 2015, we show that waning vaccine direct effects and high population turnover rendered the camp over 80% susceptible at the time of the cholera outbreak beginning in October 2016.ConclusionsOral cholera vaccines can be powerful tools for quickly protecting a population for a period of time that depends critically on vaccine coverage, vaccine efficacy over time, and the rate of population turnover through human mobility. Due to waning herd immunity, epidemics in vaccinated communities are possible but become less likely through complementary interventions or data-driven revaccination strategies.

| S-EPMC5847240 | biostudies-literature

The potential for vaccination-induced herd immunity against the SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 variant.

Project description:We assess the feasibility of reaching the herd immunity threshold against SARS-CoV-2 through vaccination, considering vaccine effectiveness (VE), transmissibility of the virus and the level of pre-existing immunity in populations, as well as their age structure. If highly transmissible variants of concern become dominant in areas with low levels of naturally-acquired immunity and/or in populations with large proportions of < 15 year-olds, control of infection without non-pharmaceutical interventions may only be possible with a VE ≥ 80%, and coverage extended to children.

| S-EPMC8138959 | biostudies-literature

Limited cross-variant immunity from SARS-CoV-2 Omicron without vaccination.

Project description:SARS-CoV-2 Delta and Omicron are globally relevant variants of concern. Although individuals infected with Delta are at risk of developing severe lung disease, infection with Omicron often causes milder symptoms, especially in vaccinated individuals1,2. The question arises of whether widespread Omicron infections could lead to future cross-variant protection, accelerating the end of the pandemic. Here we show that without vaccination, infection with Omicron induces a limited humoral immune response in mice and humans. Sera from mice overexpressing the human ACE2 receptor and infected with Omicron neutralize only Omicron, but not other variants of concern, whereas broader cross-variant neutralization was observed after WA1 and Delta infections. Unlike WA1 and Delta, Omicron replicates to low levels in the lungs and brains of infected animals, leading to mild disease with reduced expression of pro-inflammatory cytokines and diminished activation of lung-resident T cells. Sera from individuals who were unvaccinated and infected with Omicron show the same limited neutralization of only Omicron itself. By contrast, Omicron breakthrough infections induce overall higher neutralization titres against all variants of concern. Our results demonstrate that Omicron infection enhances pre-existing immunity elicited by vaccines but, on its own, may not confer broad protection against non-Omicron variants in unvaccinated individuals.

| S-EPMC9279157 | biostudies-literature

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