Dataset Information

Comparing malaria early detection methods in a declining transmission setting in northwestern Ethiopia.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Despite remarkable progress in the reduction of malaria incidence, this disease remains a public health threat to a significant portion of the world's population. Surveillance, combined with early detection algorithms, can be an effective intervention strategy to inform timely public health responses to potential outbreaks. Our main objective was to compare the potential for detecting malaria outbreaks by selected event detection methods.

Methods

We used historical surveillance data with weekly counts of confirmed Plasmodium falciparum (including mixed) cases from the Amhara region of Ethiopia, where there was a resurgence of malaria in 2019 following several years of declining cases. We evaluated three methods for early detection of the 2019 malaria events: 1) the Centers for Disease Prevention and Control (CDC) Early Aberration Reporting System (EARS), 2) methods based on weekly statistical thresholds, including the WHO and Cullen methods, and 3) the Farrington methods.

Results

All of the methods evaluated performed better than a naïve random alarm generator. We also found distinct trade-offs between the percent of events detected and the percent of true positive alarms. CDC EARS and weekly statistical threshold methods had high event sensitivities (80-100% CDC; 57-100% weekly statistical) and low to moderate alarm specificities (25-40% CDC; 16-61% weekly statistical). Farrington variants had a wide range of scores (20-100% sensitivities; 16-100% specificities) and could achieve various balances between sensitivity and specificity.

Conclusions

Of the methods tested, we found that the Farrington improved method was most effective at maximizing both the percent of events detected and true positive alarms for our dataset (> 70% sensitivity and > 70% specificity). This method uses statistical models to establish thresholds while controlling for seasonality and multi-year trends, and we suggest that it and other model-based approaches should be considered more broadly for malaria early detection.

SUBMITTER: Nekorchuk DM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8067323 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Similar Datasets

Project description:BackgroundUnderstanding the behaviour of local malaria vectors is essential as effectiveness of the commonly used vector-targeted malaria control tools heavily relies on behaviour of the major malaria vectors. This study was conducted to determine species composition, biting behaviour, host preference and infectivity of anopheline mosquitoes, and assess utilization of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) in a low transmission setting in Southwest Ethiopia.MethodsAdult anopheline mosquitoes were collected using human landing catches (HLCs), Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) light traps (LTs) and Pyrethrum Spray Catches (PSCs) from June 2016 to May 2018 in Kishe, Jimma Zone, Southwest Ethiopia. The anopheline mosquitoes were morphologically identified. Moreover, sub-sample of An. gambiae s.l. was identified to species using polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Circum-sporozoite proteins (CSPs) and blood meal sources of the anopheline mosquitoes were tested using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). In addition, a cross-sectional survey was conducted to assess ITN utilization by the inhabitants.ResultsA total of 3659 anopheline mosquitoes comprising An. coustani complex (84.4%), An. gambiae s.l. (11.3%), and An. pharoensis and An. squamosus comprising less than 5% were collected. The anopheline mosquitoes showed marked outdoor (67%) and early evening (63%) biting behaviour. An. coustani complex and An. gambiae s.l. were predominantly zoophilic and anthropophilic, respectively. None of the sampled anopheline were CSP-positive. Most of the households (97.8%) owned at least one ITN, with modest usage by the inhabitants (73.4%). ITN usage was significantly higher among under-five children (AOR = 7.9, 95% CI: 4.41-14.03), household heads and spouses (AOR = 4.8, 95% CI: 3.0-7.59), those with sufficient access to ITNs (AOR = 1.8, 95% CI: 1.39-2.35), and who were not utilizing alternative mosquito repellents (AOR = 2.2, 95% CI: 1.58-2.99).ConclusionThe anopheline mosquito species exhibited predominantly outdoor and early evening biting activity. Household ITN coverage was high with slight gap in usage. Vector control interventions should target outdoor and early biting vectors to further suppress the local mosquito population. Moreover, sensitization of the community on consistent use of ITNs is required.

Project description:Background:Despite recommendation from the World Health Organization that all malaria suspected patients undergo a parasitological confirmation using rapid diagnostic test or light microscopy prior to treatment, health facilities in remote malaria endemic settings sometimes resort to presumptive diagnosis of malaria for clinical management for various reasons. Following observation of this practice, we undertook a cross-sectional study aimed at comparing presumptive diagnosis based on axillary temperature, SD Bioline™ rapid test, and light microscopy as strategies for malaria diagnosis in the coastal region of Mutengene in the South West of Cameroon with the overall goal of supporting improved malaria diagnosis at local levels. Methodology:Venous blood from 320 participants was used to detect the presence of malaria parasite using SD Bioline™ mRDT and Giemsa stained microscopy or spotted on filter paper for PCR amplification of the 18s rRNA gene of Plasmodium sp following standard procedures. The axillary temperature of each participant was also measured. The sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values and their confidence intervals were determined for each of the methods with PCR as the reference. The area under the curve was used to estimate accuracy of diagnostic method and compared between test method using the X2 test with P<0.05 considered significant. Results:The overall diagnostic sensitivities of presumptive diagnosis using axillary temperature, light microscopy, and SD Bioline™ were observed to be 74.30% (95%CI: 67.90-80.01), 94.86% (95%CI: 90.99-97.41), and 95.33% (95%CI: 91.57-97.74), respectively, and their respective diagnostic specificities were 53.77% (95%CI: 43.82-63.51), 94.34% (95%CI: 88.09-97.87), and 94.34%(95%CI: 88.09-97.89). SD Bioline™ had a diagnostic sensitivity of 91.80% [95%CI: 81.90-97.28] at a parasitaemia of less than 500 parasites/?l of blood but a sensitivity of 100% for parasite counts above 500 parasites/?l of blood. The predictive values of the positive test were highly comparable between light microscopy (90.09%, [95%CI: 83.61-94.18]) and SD Bioline™ mRDT (90.91%, [95%CI: 84.50-94.83]), P=0.98 with kappa values of 0.898 but lower for presumptive diagnosis (50.89%, [95%CI: 43.72-58.03]), P<0.0001, and kappa value of 0.277. Perfect agreement was observed between SD Bioline™ mRDT and light microscopy (Cohen kappa= 0.924). Conclusions:The study showed that SD Bioline™ was as good as light microscopy in the diagnosis of malaria in remote areas of perennial transmission in South West Cameroon. This study equally revealed the limitations of presumptive diagnosis of malaria (as opposed to the use of RDTs or microscopy). Efforts should be made in such areas to promote parasitological confirmation of malaria using quality assured rapid tests or light microscopy for case management of malaria. The presence of nonnegligible levels of Plasmodium ovale in this study area indicate that treatment guidelines may require revision if same trend is proven in several other areas of same ecology.

Project description:BackgroundSubstantial reductions in the burden of malaria have been documented in parts of sub-Saharan Africa, with elimination strategies and goals being formulated in some regions. Within this context, understanding the epidemiology of low-level malaria transmission is crucial to achieving and sustaining elimination. A 24 single-nucleotide-polymorphism Plasmodium falciparum molecular barcode was used to characterize parasite populations from infected individuals identified through passive and active case detection in an area approaching malaria elimination in southern Zambia.MethodsThe study was conducted in the catchment area of Macha Hospital in Choma District, Southern Province, Zambia, where the parasite prevalence declined over the past decade, from 9.2% in 2008 to less than 1% in 2013. Parasite haplotypes from actively detected, P. falciparum-infected participants enrolled in a serial cross-sectional, community-based cohort study from 2008 to 2013 and from passively detected, P. falciparum-infected individuals enrolled at five rural health centres from 2012 to 2015 were compared. Changes in P. falciparum genetic relatedness, diversity and complexity were analysed as malaria transmission declined.ResultsActively detected cases identified in the community were most commonly rapid diagnostic test negative, asymptomatic and had submicroscopic parasitaemia. Phylogenetic reconstruction using concatenated 24 SNP barcode revealed a separation of parasite haplotypes from passively and actively detected infections, consistent with two genetically distinct parasite populations. For passively detected infections identified at health centres, the proportion of detectable polyclonal infections was consistently low in all seasons, in contrast with actively detected infections in which the proportion of polyclonal infections was high. The mean genetic divergence for passively detected infections was 34.5% for the 2012-2013 transmission season, 37.8% for the 2013-2014 season, and 30.8% for the 2014-2015 season. The mean genetic divergence for actively detected infections was 22.3% in the 2008 season and 29.0% in the 2008-2009 season and 9.9% across the 2012-2014 seasons.ConclusionsDistinct parasite populations were identified among infected individuals identified through active and passive surveillance, suggesting that infected individuals detected through active surveillance may not have contributed substantially to ongoing transmission. As parasite prevalence and diversity within these individuals declined, resource-intensive efforts to identify the chronically infected reservoir may not be necessary to eliminate malaria in this setting.