Mitigating Future Respiratory Virus Pandemics: New Threats and Approaches to Consider.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Gray GC
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8068197 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Similar Datasets
Project description:Researchers and policymakers have proposed systems to detect novel pathogens earlier than existing surveillance systems by monitoring samples from hospital patients, wastewater, and air travel, in order to mitigate future pandemics. How much benefit would such systems offer? We developed, empirically validated, and mathematically characterized a quantitative model that simulates disease spread and detection time for any given disease and detection system. We find that hospital monitoring could have detected COVID-19 in Wuhan 0.4 weeks earlier than it was actually discovered, at 2,300 cases (standard error: 76 cases) compared to 3,400 (standard error: 161 cases). Wastewater monitoring would not have accelerated COVID-19 detection in Wuhan, but provides benefit in smaller catchments and for asymptomatic or long-incubation diseases like polio or HIV/AIDS. Monitoring of air travel provides little benefit in most scenarios we evaluated. In sum, early detection systems can substantially mitigate some future pandemics, but would not have changed the course of COVID-19.
| S-EPMC10312821 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Avian malaria, transmitted by Culex quinquefasciatus mosquitoes in the Hawaiian Islands, has been a primary contributor to population range limitations, declines, and extinctions for many endemic Hawaiian honeycreepers. Avian malaria is strongly influenced by climate; therefore, predicted future changes are expected to expand transmission into higher elevations and intensify and lengthen existing transmission periods at lower elevations, leading to further population declines and potential extinction of highly susceptible honeycreepers in mid- and high-elevation forests. Based on future climate changes and resulting malaria risk, we evaluated the viability of alternative conservation strategies to preserve endemic Hawaiian birds at mid and high elevations through the 21st century. We linked an epidemiological model with three alternative climatic projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project to predict future malaria risk and bird population dynamics for the coming century. Based on climate change predictions, proposed strategies included mosquito population suppression using modified males, release of genetically modified refractory mosquitoes, competition from other introduced mosquitoes that are not competent vectors, evolved malaria-tolerance in native honeycreepers, feral pig control to reduce mosquito larval habitats, and predator control to improve bird demographics. Transmission rates of malaria are predicted to be higher than currently observed and are likely to have larger impacts in high-elevation forests where current low rates of transmission create a refuge for highly-susceptible birds. As a result, several current and proposed conservation strategies will be insufficient to maintain existing forest bird populations. We concluded that mitigating malaria transmission at high elevations should be a primary conservation goal. Conservation strategies that maintain highly susceptible species like Iiwi (Drepanis coccinea) will likely benefit other threatened and endangered Hawai'i species, especially in high-elevation forests. Our results showed that mosquito control strategies offer potential long-term benefits to high elevation Hawaiian honeycreepers. However, combined strategies will likely be needed to preserve endemic birds at mid elevations. Given the delay required to research, develop, evaluate, and improve several of these currently untested conservation strategies we suggest that planning should begin expeditiously.
| S-EPMC5218566 | biostudies-literature
Project description: Not available
| S-EPMC2519592 | biostudies-literature
Project description:IntroductionThe REGAL (RSV Evidence - A Geographical Archive of the Literature) series has provided a comprehensive review of the published evidence in the field of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in Western countries over the last 20 years. This seventh and final publication covers the past, present and future approaches to the prevention and treatment of RSV infection among infants and children.MethodsA systematic review was undertaken of publications between January 1, 1995 and December 31, 2017 across PubMed, Embase and The Cochrane Library. Studies reporting data on the effectiveness and tolerability of prophylactic and therapeutic agents for RSV infection were included. Study quality and strength of evidence (SOE) were graded using recognized criteria. A further nonsystematic search of the published literature and Clinicaltrials.gov on antiviral therapies and RSV vaccines currently in development was also undertaken.ResultsThe systematic review identified 1441 studies of which 161 were included. Management of RSV remains centered around prophylaxis with the monoclonal antibody palivizumab, which has proven effective in reducing RSV hospitalization (RSVH) in preterm infants < 36 weeks' gestational age (72% reduction), children with bronchopulmonary dysplasia (65% reduction), and infants with hemodynamically significant congenital heart disease (53% reduction) (high SOE). Palivizumab has also shown to be effective in reducing recurrent wheezing following RSVH (high SOE). Treatment of RSV with ribavirin has conflicting success (moderate SOE). Antibodies with increased potency and extended half-life are currently entering phase 3 trials. There are approximately 15 RSV vaccines in clinical development targeting the infant directly or indirectly via the mother.ConclusionPalivizumab remains the only product licensed for RSV prophylaxis, and only available for high-risk infants. For the general population, there are several promising vaccines and monoclonal antibodies in various stages of clinical development, with the aim to significantly reduce the global healthcare impact of this common viral infection.FundingAbbVie.
| S-EPMC5840107 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundIf the different transmission risks of respiratory infectious diseases according to the type of confined space and associated factors could be discovered, this kind of information will be an important basis for devising future quarantine policies. However, no comprehensive systematic review or meta-analysis for this topic exists.ObjectiveThe objective of this study is to analyze different transmission risks of respiratory infectious diseases according to the type of confined space. This information will be an important basis for devising future quarantine policies.MethodsA medical librarian searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Library (until December 01, 2020).ResultsA total of 147 articles were included. The risk of transmission in all types of confined spaces was approximately 3 times higher than in open space (combined RR, 2.95 (95% CI 2.62-3.33)). Among them, school or workplace showed the highest transmission risk (combined RR, 3.94 (95% CI 3.16-4.90)). Notably, in the sub-analysis for SARS-CoV-2, residential space and airplane were the riskiest space (combined RR, 8.30 (95% CI 3.30-20.90) and 7.30 (95% CI 1.15-46.20), respectively).DiscussionBased on the equation of the total number of contacts, the order of transmission according to the type of confined space was calculated. The calculated order was similar to the observed order in this study. The transmission risks in confined spaces can be lowered by reducing each component of the aforementioned equation. However, as seen in the data for SARS-CoV-2, the closure of one type of confined space could increase the population density in another confined space. The authority of infection control should consider this paradox. Appropriate quarantine measures targeted for specific types of confined spaces with a higher risk of transmission, school or workplace for general pathogens, and residential space/airplane for SARS-CoV-2 can reduce the transmission of respiratory infectious diseases.
| S-EPMC8566017 | biostudies-literature
Project description:This article explores four key questions about statistical models developed to describe the recent past and future of vector-borne diseases, with special emphasis on dengue: (1) How many variables should be used to make predictions about the future of vector-borne diseases? (2) Is the spatial resolution of a climate dataset an important determinant of model accuracy? (3) Does inclusion of the future distributions of vectors affect predictions of the futures of the diseases they transmit? (4) Which are the key predictor variables involved in determining the distributions of vector-borne diseases in the present and future? Examples are given of dengue models using one, five or 10 meteorological variables and at spatial resolutions of from one-sixth to two degrees. Model accuracy is improved with a greater number of descriptor variables, but is surprisingly unaffected by the spatial resolution of the data. Dengue models with a reduced set of climate variables derived from the HadCM3 global circulation model predictions for the 1980s are improved when risk maps for dengue's two main vectors (Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus) are also included as predictor variables; disease and vector models are projected into the future using the global circulation model predictions for the 2020s, 2040s and 2080s. The Garthwaite-Koch corr-max transformation is presented as a novel way of showing the relative contribution of each of the input predictor variables to the map predictions.
| S-EPMC4342966 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Pandemics have accelerated in frequency in recent decades, with COVID-19 the latest to join the list. Emerging in late 2019 in Wuhan, China, the virus has spread quickly through the world, affecting billions of people through quarantine, and at the same time claiming more than 800,000 lives worldwide. While early reflections from the academic community have tended to target the microbiology, medicine, and animal science communities, this article articulates a viewpoint from a perspective of human interactions with Earth systems. We highlight the link between rising pandemics and accelerating global human impacts on Earth, thereby suggesting that pandemics may be an emerging element of the “Anthropocene.” Examples from Denver, Colorado, USA, show how policy responses to the COVID-19 pandemic changed human-environment interactions and created anomalous landscapes at the local scale, in relation to the quality of air and patterns of acquiring and consuming food. In recognizing the significance of novel infectious diseases as part of understanding human-landscape interactions in the Anthropocene, as well as the multi-scale interconnectedness between environment and health, this viewpoint converges toward an urgent need for new paradigms for research and teaching. The program required extends well beyond the already broad interdisciplinary scholarship essential for addressing human-landscape interactions, by integrating the work of health scientists, disease specialists, immunologists, virologists, veterinarians, behavioral scientists, and health policy experts.
| S-EPMC7451098 | biostudies-literature
Project description:School closure policies are among the non-pharmaceutical measures taken into consideration to mitigate influenza epidemics and pandemics spread. However, a systematic review of the effectiveness of alternative closure policies has yet to emerge. Here we perform a model-based analysis of four types of school closure, ranging from the nationwide closure of all schools at the same time to reactive gradual closure, starting from class-by-class, then grades and finally the whole school. We consider policies based on triggers that are feasible to monitor, such as school absenteeism and national ILI surveillance system. We found that, under specific constraints on the average number of weeks lost per student, reactive school-by-school, gradual, and county-wide closure give comparable outcomes in terms of optimal infection attack rate reduction, peak incidence reduction or peak delay. Optimal implementations generally require short closures of one week each; this duration is long enough to break the transmission chain without leading to unnecessarily long periods of class interruption. Moreover, we found that gradual and county closures may be slightly more easily applicable in practice as they are less sensitive to the value of the excess absenteeism threshold triggering the start of the intervention. These findings suggest that policy makers could consider school closure policies more diffusely as response strategy to influenza epidemics and pandemics, and the fact that some countries already have some experience of gradual or regional closures for seasonal influenza outbreaks demonstrates that logistic and feasibility challenges of school closure strategies can be to some extent overcome.
| S-EPMC4721867 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundCommunity-based primary care focuses on health promotion, awareness raising, and illnesses treatment and prevention in individuals, groups, and communities. Community Health Workers (CHWs) are the leading actors in such programs, helping to bridge the gap between the population and the health system. Many mobile health (mHealth) initiatives have been undertaken to empower CHWs and improve the data collection process in the primary care, replacing archaic paper-based approaches. A special category of mHealth apps, known as mHealth Data Collection Systems (MDCSs), is often used for such tasks. These systems process highly sensitive personal health data of entire communities so that a careful consideration about privacy is paramount for any successful deployment. However, the mHealth literature still lacks methodologically rigorous analyses for privacy and data protection.ObjectiveIn this paper, a Privacy Impact Assessment (PIA) for MDCSs is presented, providing a systematic identification and evaluation of potential privacy risks, particularly emphasizing controls and mitigation strategies to handle negative privacy impacts.MethodsThe privacy analysis follows a systematic methodology for PIAs. As a case study, we adopt the GeoHealth system, a large-scale MDCS used by CHWs in the Family Health Strategy, the Brazilian program for delivering community-based primary care. All the PIA steps were taken on the basis of discussions among the researchers (privacy and security experts). The identification of threats and controls was decided particularly on the basis of literature reviews and working group meetings among the group. Moreover, we also received feedback from specialists in primary care and software developers of other similar MDCSs in Brazil.ResultsThe GeoHealth PIA is based on 8 Privacy Principles and 26 Privacy Targets derived from the European General Data Protection Regulation. Associated with that, 22 threat groups with a total of 97 subthreats and 41 recommended controls were identified. Among the main findings, we observed that privacy principles can be enhanced on existing MDCSs with controls for managing consent, transparency, intervenability, and data minimization.ConclusionsAlthough there has been significant research that deals with data security issues, attention to privacy in its multiple dimensions is still lacking for MDCSs in general. New systems have the opportunity to incorporate privacy and data protection by design. Existing systems will have to address their privacy issues to comply with new and upcoming data protection regulations. However, further research is still needed to identify feasible and cost-effective solutions.
| S-EPMC6446152 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Respiratory Syncytial Virus is a yearly respiratory virus that causes significant frequencies of morbidities, particularly in the young and elderly populations. However, preventive vaccines and/or treatment therapies are generally lacking, although much attention is now being placed on this virus. Moreover, there are now multiple strategies currently being explored in a race to the first licensed vaccine. While vaccines are being developed, multiple treatment strategies are being explored to attenuate the severity of infection and thus reduce hospitalization rates in vulnerable populations. This review outlines current strategies to prevent or treat this virus in the hopes of reducing significant human morbidity and mortality that occurs yearly with this seasonal virus.
| S-EPMC7412623 | biostudies-literature