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Potential Global Distribution of Daktulosphaira vitifoliae under Climate Change Based on MaxEnt.

ABSTRACT: Grape phylloxera, Daktulosphaira vitifoliae, is a small, invasive, sap-sucking pest that is widely present in most viticulture regions all over the world. It is originally from North America and feeds on grapevine roots and leaves. In the current study, the potential distribution area of the leaf-feeding population was investigated with MaxEnt based on population occurrence data under different environmental variables. Results suggested that under current climatic conditions, Europe, East and North China, Japan, the Eastern USA, Uruguay, and the Southeast of South America are highly suitable areas for the occurrence of phylloxera leaf populations. The results showed that isothermality and precipitation of coldest quarter were major factors which contribute more than 60% of the model under current climate conditions. Our results provide important information for governmental decision makers and famers to develop control and management strategies against D. vitifoliae, and can also be used as a reference for studies on other invasive pest.

SUBMITTER: Ji W

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8069807 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:AimInvasive alien species (IAS) threaten ecosystems and humans worldwide, and future climate change may accelerate the expansion of IAS. Predicting the suitable areas of IAS can prevent their further expansion. Ageratina adenophora is an invasive weed over 30 countries in tropical and subtropical regions. However, the potential suitable areas of A. adenophora remain unclear along with its response to climate change. This study explored and mapped the current and future potential suitable areas of Ageratina adenophora.LocationGlobal.TaxaAsteraceae A. adenophora (Spreng.) R.M.King & H.Rob. Commonly known as Crofton weed.MethodsBased on A. adenophora occurrence data and climate data, we predicted its suitable areas of this weed under current and future (four RCPs in 2050 and 2070) by MaxEnt model. We used ArcGIS 10.4 to explore the potential suitable area distribution characteristics of this weed and the "ecospat" package in R to analyze its altitudinal distribution changes.ResultsThe area under the curve (AUC) value (>0.9) and true skill statistics (TSS) value (>0.8) indicated excelled model performance. Among environment factors, mean temperature of coldest quarter contributed most to the model. Globally, the suitable areas for A. adenophora invasion decreased under climate change scenarios, although regional increases were observed, including in six biodiversity hotspot regions. The potential suitable areas of A. adenophora under climate change would expand in regions with higher elevation (3,000-3,500 m).Main conclusionsMean temperature of coldest quarter was the most important variable influencing the potential suitable area of A. Adenophora. Under the background of a warming climate, the potential suitable area of A. adenophora will shrink globally but increase in six biodiversity hotspot regions. The potential suitable area of A. adenophora would expand at higher elevation (3,000-3,500 m) under climate change. Mountain ecosystems are of special concern as they are rich in biodiversity and sensitive to climate change, and increasing human activities provide more opportunities for IAS invasion.

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Potential Global Distribution of Daktulosphaira vitifoliae under Climate Change Based on MaxEnt.

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