Validation of the Framingham hypertension risk score in a middle eastern population: Tehran lipid and glucose study (TLGS).
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ABSTRACT: Background
The Framingham hypertension risk score is a well-known and simple model for predicting hypertension in adults. In the current study, we aimed to assess the predictive ability of this model in a Middle Eastern population.Methods
We studied 5423 participants, aged 20-69 years, without hypertension, who participated in two consecutive examination cycles of the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study (TLGS). We assessed discrimination based on Harrell's concordance statistic (c-index) and calibration (graphical comparison of predicted vs. observed). We evaluated the original, recalibrated (for intercept and slope), and revised (for beta coefficients) models.Results
Over the 3-year follow-up period, 319 participants developed hypertension. The Framingham hypertension risk score performed well in discriminating between individuals who developed hypertension and those who did not (c-index = 0.81, 95% CI: 0.79-0.83). Initially, there was a systematic underestimation of the original risk score (events predicted), which was readily corrected by a simple model revision.Conclusions
The revised Framingham hypertension risk score can be used as a screening tool in public health and clinical practice to facilitate the targeting of preventive interventions in high-risk Middle Eastern people.
SUBMITTER: Koohi F
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8070324 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:BackgroundThe use of the Coronary Artery Calcium Score (CACS) for risk categorization instead of the Framingham Risk Score (FRS) or European Heart SCORE (EHS) to improve classification of individuals is well documented. However, the impact of reclassifying individuals using CACS on initiating lipid lowering therapy is not well understood. We aimed to determine the percentage of individuals not requiring lipid lowering therapy as per the FRS and EHS models but are found to require it using CACS and vice versa; and to determine the level of agreement between CACS, FRS and EHS based models.MethodsData was collected for 500 consecutive patients who had already undergone CACS. However, only 242 patients met the inclusion criteria and were included in the analysis. Risk stratification comparisons were conducted according to CACS, FRS, and EHS, and the agreement (Kappa) between them was calculated.ResultsIn accordance with the models, 79.7% to 81.5% of high-risk individuals were down-classified by CACS, while 6.8% to 7.6% of individuals at intermediate risk were up-classified to high risk by CACS, with slight to moderate agreement. Moreover, CACS recommended treatment to 5.7% and 5.8% of subjects untreated according to European and Canadian guidelines, respectively; whereas 75.2% to 81.2% of those treated in line with the guidelines would not be treated based on CACS.ConclusionIn this simulation, using CACS for risk categorization warrants lipid lowering treatment for 5-6% and spares 70-80% from treatment in accordance with the guidelines. Current strong evidence from double randomized clinical trials is in support of guideline recommendations. Our results call for a prospective trial to explore the benefits/risks of a CACS-based approach before any recommendations can be made.
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Project description:Background Limited and conflicting evidence is available regarding the predictive value of adding adverse pregnancy outcomes (APOs) to established cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors. Hence, the objective of this study was to determine whether adding APOs to the Framingham risk score improves the prediction of CVD events in women. Methods and Results Out of 5413 women who participated in the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study, 4013 women met the eligibility criteria included for the present study. The exposure and the outcome variables were collected based on the standard protocol. Cox proportional hazard model was used to evaluate the association of APOs and CVDs. The variant of C-statistic for survivals and reclassification of subjects into Framingham risk score categories after adding APOs was reported. Out of the 4013 eligible subjects, a total of 1484 (36.98%) women reported 1 APO, while 395 (9.84%) of the cases reported multiple APOs. Univariate proportional hazard Cox models showed the significant relations between CVD events and APOs. The enhanced model had a higher C-statistic indicating more acceptable discrimination as well as a slight improvement in discrimination (C-statistic differences: 0.0053). Moreover, we observed a greater risk of experiencing a CVD event in women with a history of multiple APOs compared with cases with only 1 APO (1 APO: hazard ratio [HR] = 1.22; 2 APOs: HR; 1.94; ≥3 APOs: HR = 2.48). Conclusions Beyond the established risk factors, re-estimated CVDs risk by adding APOs to the Framingham risk score may improve the accurate risk estimation of CVD. Further observational studies are needed to confirm our findings.
| S-EPMC9238524 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundTo examine the association between potentially modifiable risk factors with cardiovascular disease (CVD) and all-cause mortality and to quantify their population attributable fractions (PAFs) among a sample of Tehran residents.MethodsOverall, 8108 participants (3686 men) aged?30 years, were investigated. To examine the association between risk factors and outcomes, multivariate sex-adjusted Cox proportional hazard regression analysis were conducted, using age as time-scale in two models including general/central adiposity: 1)adjusted for different independent variables including smoking, education, family history of CVD and sex for both outcomes and additionally adjusted for prevalent CVD for all-cause mortality 2)further adjusted for obesity mediators (hypertension, diabetes, lipid profile and chronic kidney disease). Separate models were used including either general or central adiposity.ResultsDuring median follow-up of >10 years, 827 first CVD events and 551 deaths occurred. Both being overweight (hazard ratio (HR), 95%CI: 1.41, 1.18-1.66, PAF 13.66) and obese (1.51, 1.24-1.84, PAF 9.79) played significant roles for incident CVD in the absence of obesity mediators. Predicting CVD, in the presence of general adiposity and its mediators, significant positive associations were found for hypercholesterolemia (1.59, 1.36-1.85, PAF 16.69), low HDL-C (1.21, 1.03-1.41, PAF 12.32), diabetes (1.86, 1.57-2.27, PAF 13.87), hypertension (1.79, 1.46-2.19, PAF 21.62) and current smoking (1.61, 1.34-1.94, PAF 7.57). Central adiposity remained a significant positive predictor, even after controlling for mediators (1.17, 1.01-1.35, PAF 7.55). For all-cause mortality, general/central obesity did not have any risk even in the absence of obesity mediators. Predictors including diabetes (2.56, 2.08-3.16, PAF 24.37), hypertension (1.43, 1.11-1.84, PAF 17.13), current smoking (1.75, 1.38-2.22, PAF 7.71), and low education level (1.59, 1.01-2.51, PAF 27.08) were associated with higher risk, however, hypertriglyceridemia (0.83, 0.68-1.01) and being overweight (0.71, 0.58-0.87) were associated with lower risk.ConclusionsModifiable risk factors account for more than 70% risk for both CVD and mortality events.
| S-EPMC5145170 | biostudies-literature
Project description:AimsTo identify sex specific trajectories of waist circumference (WC),triglyceride (TG), total cholesterol (TC), high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) and fasting plasma glucose (FPG) during adulthood and examine their associations with incident hypertension.MethodsThe cohort consisted of 5030 participants (2051 males) with at least 2 repeated measurement during a median of 12 years follow up. We identified trajectory groups using latent class growth mixture model, their association with hypertension was examined using multivariate Cox-regression analysis.ResultsWe found 997 cases of hypertension (483 male). For both exposures, three distinct trajectory groups were identified in both genders. For WC, in women: low-increasing, 82.4%; high-stable, 13.4%; high-increasing, 4.2% and in men: stable, 94.6%; low-increasing, 3.6% and for high- increasing, 1.7%. For TG, in women: stable, 91.3%; decreasing, 5.9%; inverse U-shape, 2.8%; in men: stable, 89.7%; inverse U- shape, 6.2% and for decreasing, 4.1%. Regarding WC, high stable and high-increasing trajectories were associated with hypertension in the multivariate model [(hazard ratio (HR) = 1.66 (95% CI 1.26-2.20) and 2.78(1.79-3.60), respectively]. Among men, this association was shown only for the low-increasing trajectory [2.76: 1.49-5.10]. For TG, among women decreasing and inverse U-shape trajectories were significantly associated with hypertension in the multivariate model [1.32:1.01-1.76] and [2.23:1.58-3.23, respectively]. We did not find any impact of increasing trajectories of FPG and HDL-C on incident hypertension. Considering TC, all individuals followed a stable trajectory.ConclusionWC dynamic changes in both gender and TG trajectory among women were significantly associated with incident hypertension.
| S-EPMC7903760 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundTo investigate the association between different obesity phenotypes and the risk of incident hypertension among both genders.MethodsThe study population included 3659 Iranians (men?=?1540), aged ?20?years free of hypertension at baseline. Participants were classified into six categories of body mass index (BMI)-metabolic health status, in which unhealthy metabolic status was defined based on the presence of >?1 component of metabolic syndrome (MetS) using the joint interim statement (JIS) criteria or the presence of insulin resistance (IR). The association between different obesity phenotypes and incident hypertension was assessed using multivariate Cox's proportional hazard models adjusted for age, current smoking, low physical activity, diabetes mellitus, family history of premature cardiovascular disease, estimated glomerular filtration rate, phase of recruitment, BMI and systolic blood pressure, considering metabolically healthy normal weight group as the reference.ResultsAfter a median follow-up of 11.6?years 1122 participants (men?=?493) experienced hypertension. Using JIS criteria, a significant higher risk of hypertension was observed among metabolically healthy obese and well as metabolically unhealthy groups among men in the age adjusted model; however, a significant higher risk in the fully adjusted model was seen among women in the metabolically healthy obese [hazard ratio (HR) 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.96(1.16-3.32)] as well as metabolically unhealthy normal weight [1.98(1.37-2.86)], overweight [2.08(1.49-2.90)] and obese [2.06(1.27-3.30)] groups. Using insulin sensitive normal weight group as the reference, among men, being overweight or obese with and without IR was significant predictors of incident hypertension in the age adjusted model; however, among women, insulin resistant overweight [1.46(1.06-2.02)] and obese groups, [1.63(1.01-2.62)] showed significant risk in the fully adjusted model.ConclusionWe concluded that first, there was significant difference between genders in the associations between obesity phenotypes and incident hypertension. Second, in general, metabolic status defined by MetS components as compared to IR could do better in identifying high risk women for hypertension. Third, women populations who are metabolically healthy obese using MetS definition or those with either >?1 component of metabolic syndrome or overweight/obese ones with IR should be prioritized for implementing urgent preventive strategies against hypertension focusing on lifestyle changes.
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Project description:BackgroundThe aim of this study was to investigate the association of dietary patterns with incident hypertension.Materials/methodsThis prospective study was conducted on 4793 individuals of Tehran lipid and glucose study participants, aged???18 years who were followed for a median of 6.3 years from 2008-2011 to 2016-2018. A valid and reliable semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire was used to assess usual dietary intakes. Anthropometrics and blood pressure were assessed at baseline and during follow up examinations. Dietary patterns were derived using principal component analysis (PCA). Healthy eating index (HEI) and dietary approach to stop hypertension (DASH) score were measured based on dietary recommendations. Time-dependent Cox models adjusting for confounders were used to examine the association between dietary patterns and the risk of hypertension.ResultsDuring follow-up, a total of 727 incident cases of hypertension were identified. The mean?±?SD age at baseline was 40.3?±?13.5 and 37.9?±?12.1 years in men and women, respectively. Two dietary patterns (the healthy and unhealthy) were extracted by PCA. Compared with participants in the first quartile, a 23% (HR: 1.23; 95%CI 1.00-1.53; P trend: 0.056) increased risk of hypertension was found in the fourth quartile of HEI score. This association was disappeared after further adjustment for confounders. Increasing DASH score, the healthy and unhealthy dietary pattern were not associated with risk of hypertension.ConclusionOur findings showed that higher adherences to the posteriori- and priori-dietary patterns were not associated with risk of hypertension in this population.
| S-EPMC7836444 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study (TLGS), an epidemiological study of non-communicable disease with 20 years follow up in a developing country in nutrition transition is a unique study in 15000 family based individuals, 3 - 75 years of age in a part of large city of Tehran. The success rate of recruitment for 20 years, intervention for lifestyle change, and thyroid, reproduction and cardiometabolic genetic studies derived from TLGS have paved suitable path towards precision medicine. In this review, baseline findings and changes of risk factors for the development of NCD including body weight, nutrition, physical activity, blood pressure, tobacco smoking, serum glucose and serum lipids as well as metabolic syndrome, chronic kidney disease, quality of life and biochemical findings in TLGS cohort have been summarized. The results of community based intervention for lifestyle change caused decreases in the prevalence of metabolic syndrome and the incidence of diabetes. It is concluded that TLGS has served as a model for other cohort studies in Iran and the region; it has helped to mobilize scientists in developing countries; it has established locally needed definitions of NCD variables; has served as a model for cohort studies in developing countries in nutrition transition with all socioeconomic constraints and has helped manpower education and development of local CVD risk scores for implementation of NCD management.
| S-EPMC6289319 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Sudden cardiac death (SCD) is described as death within one hour, if observed, from the onset of symptoms, and within 24 h of being alive and well if not observe. Study population includes 3705 men and 4446 women, aged ≥ 30 years. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard models were used to determine the risk factors associated with SCD. After a median follow-up of 17.9 years, 244 SCD (165 in males) occurred. The age-standardized incidence rate (95% confidence intervals (CI)) of SCD was 2.3 (2.1-2.7) per 1000 person-year. Current smoking [Hazard ratio (HR): 2.43, 95% CI: 1.73-3.42], high waist circumference [1.49: 1.04-2.12], hypertension [1.39: 1.05-1.84], type 2 diabetes mellitus [2.78: 2.09-3.69], pulse rate ≥ 90 beats per/minute [1.72: 1.22-2.42] and prevalent cardiovascular disease [1.75: 1.26-2.45] were significant risk factors. The corresponding population attributed fractions (PAF) were 14.30, 16.58, 14.03, 19.60, 7.62, and 8.30, respectively. Being overweight [0.58: 0.40-0.83] and obese [0.61: 0.38-0.98] decreased the risk of SCD. After excluding known diabetes cases from our data analysis, the newly diagnosed diabetes still showed an HR of 2.0 (1.32-3.00) with a PAF of 7.15% in the full adjustment model. To deal with sudden death as a catastrophic outcome, multi-component strategies by policy health makers are suggested.
| S-EPMC8333266 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background:To examine the association between changes in fasting insulin, homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), and insulin-glucose ratio (IGR) levels, over approximately 3?years with incident hypertension. Methods:A total of 2814 Iranian participants (1123 men) without hypertension and known diabetes at baseline and the first examination were followed for a median of 6.32?years. The associations between quartiles of changes in fasting insulin and IR indices with incident hypertension were assessed using multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression analyses with first quartile as reference. The models were adjusted for baseline values of insulin or each IR index, and age, sex, smoking, physical activity, educational levels, marital status, history of cardiovascular diseases, baseline levels of systolic and diastolic blood pressures, estimated glomerular filtration rate, triglycerides, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, fasting plasma glucose (only for insulin change) and both body mass index (BMI) per se, and its change. Akaike's information criteria (AIC) was applied as indicator for goodness of fit of each predictive model. The discrimination ability of models was calculated using the Harrell's C statistic. Results:During the study, 594 incident cases of hypertension (253 men) were identified. The 4th quartile of changes in insulin, HOMA-IR, and IGR showed hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) of 1.31 (1.01-1.69), 1.18 (0.92-1.52), and 1.53 (1.18-1.98) for hypertension, respectively, in fully-adjusted models. Changes in fasting insulin levels and IR indices showed significant increasing trends for incident hypertension, moving from 1st to 4th quartiles (all P-values < 0.05). Focusing on model fitness, no superiority was found between changes in fasting insulin, HOMA-IR, and IGR to predict incident hypertension. The discriminatory powers of changes in fasting insulin and IR indices as assessed by C index were similar (i.e. about 80%). Conclusion:Changes in fasting insulin and IR indices were significantly associated with developing hypertension among normotensive population even after considering BMI changes.
| S-EPMC6842481 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background:Hypertension, with a prevalence of 25.6% is a serious public health concern in Iran. Objective:To investigate the population-based incidence of hypertension and its potential risk factors in Tehranian adults during a median follow-up of 13.1 years. Methods:A total of 6,533 non-hypertensive participants (women = 3,639), aged ?20 years participated in the study. Crude and age-standardized incidence rates per 1000 person-years were calculated for each sex, separately. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for all potential risk factors. Results:The crude and age-standardized incidence rates (95% CI) of hypertension per 1000 person-years were 29.7 (27.8-31.6) and 34.9 (32.5-37.4) among men and 25.8 (24.3-27.3) and 38.7 (35.5-42.0) among women, respectively. The incidence rate of hypertension in younger age groups was higher among men. However, after the 4th decade, the incidence rate was higher among women. Significant interactions of sex with age groups, body mass index categories, marital status, hypertriglyceridemia and glycemic categories were found in multivariable analyses (all p-values < 0.05). In the multivariable model, the risk in both sexes was found to be significantly associated with older age, obesity, and normal or high normal blood pressure (BP). Moreover, factors such as being overweight [HR: 1.20 (1.00-1.44)], former smoking [2.15 (1.52-3.04)], hypertriglyceridemia [1.23 (1.06-1.43)] and pre-diabetes status [1.19 (1.02-1.39)] were significant predictors of incident hypertension among women. Central obesity was found to be a significant predictor among men [1.26 (1.03-1.54)]. The optimism-corrected Harrell's C index (95% CI) in the categorical adjusted model was 0.75 (0.74-0.79) among men and 0.75 (0.74-0.76) among women. Conclusion:In the Tehranian population, nearly 2.7% of total participants (3% of men and 2.6% of women) develop hypertension each year. Obesity and high BP levels are the main modifiable risk factors in both sexes. Hypertriglyceridemia, prediabetes and former smoking are risk factors for hypertension among women.
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