Understanding spatial patterns in rape reporting delays.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Klemmer K
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8074621 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:BackgroundNorovirus has a higher level of under-reporting in England compared to other intestinal infectious agents such as Campylobacter or Salmonella, despite being recognised as the most common cause of gastroenteritis globally. In England, this under-reporting is a consequence of the frequently mild/self-limiting nature of the disease, combined with the passive surveillance system for infectious diseases reporting. We investigated heterogeneity in passive surveillance system in order to improve understanding of differences in reporting and laboratory testing practices of norovirus in England.MethodsThe reporting patterns of norovirus relating to age and geographical region of England were investigated using a multivariate negative binomial model. Multiple model formulations were compared, and the best performing model was determined by proper scoring rules based on one-week-ahead predictions. The reporting patterns are represented by epidemic and endemic random intercepts; values close to one and less than one imply a lower number of reports than expected in the given region and age-group.ResultsThe best performing model highlighted atypically large and small amounts of reporting by comparison with the average in England. Endemic random intercept varied from the lowest in East Midlands in those in the under 5 year age-group (0.36, CI 0.18-0.72) to the highest in the same age group in South West (3.00, CI 1.68-5.35) and Yorkshire & the Humber (2.93, CI 1.74-4.94). Reporting by age groups showed the highest variability in young children.ConclusionWe identified substantial variability in reporting patterns of norovirus by age and by region of England. Our findings highlight the importance of considering uncertainty in the design of forecasting tools for norovirus, and to inform the development of more targeted risk management approaches for norovirus disease.
| S-EPMC8240379 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The malaria-protective β-globin polymorphisms, sickle-cell (β(S)) and β(0)-thalassaemia, are canonical examples of human adaptation to infectious disease. Occurring on distinct genetic backgrounds, they vary markedly in their patterns of linked genetic variation at the population level, suggesting different evolutionary histories. β(S) is associated with five classical restriction fragment length polymorphism haplotypes that exhibit remarkable specificity in their geographical distributions; by contrast, β(0)-thalassaemia mutations are found on haplotypes whose distributions overlap considerably. Here, we explore why these two polymorphisms display contrasting spatial haplotypic distributions, despite having malaria as a common selective pressure. We present a meta-population genetic model, incorporating individual-based processes, which tracks the evolution of β-globin polymorphisms on different haplotypic backgrounds. Our simulations reveal that, depending on the rate of mutation, a large population size and/or high population growth rate are required for both the β(S)- and the β(0)-thalassaemia-like patterns. However, whilst the β(S)-like pattern is more likely when population subdivision is high, migration low and long-distance migration absent, the opposite is true for β(0)-thalassaemia. Including gene conversion has little effect on the overall probability of each pattern; however, when inter-haplotype fitness variation exists, gene conversion is more likely to have contributed to the diversity of haplotypes actually present in the population. Our findings highlight how the contrasting spatial haplotype patterns exhibited by β(S) and β(0)-thalassaemia may provide important indications as to the evolution of these adaptive alleles and the demographic history of the populations in which they have evolved.
| S-EPMC4653953 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Knowledge of the geographical distribution of soils is indispensable for policy and decision makers to achieve the goal of increasing agricultural production and reduce poverty, particularly in the Global South. A study was conducted to better understand the soilscapes of the Giba catchment (900-3300 m a.s.l.; 5133 km2) in northern Ethiopia, so as to sustain soil use and management. To characterise the chemical and physical properties of the different benchmark soils and to classify them in line with the World Reference Base of Soil Resources, 141 soil profile pits and 1381 soil augerings at representative sites were analysed. The dominant soil units identified are Leptosol and bare rock (19% coverage), Vertic Cambisol (14%), Regosol and Cambisol (10%), Skeletic/Leptic Cambisol and Regosol (9%), Rendzic Leptosol (7%), Calcaric/Calcic Vertisol (6%), Chromic Luvisol (6%) and Chromic/Pellic Vertisol (5%). Together these eight soil units cover almost 75% of the catchment. Topography and parent material are the major influencing factors that explain the soil distribution. Besides these two factors, land cover that is strongly impacted by human activities, may not be overlooked. Our soil suitability study shows that currently, after thousands of years of agricultural land use, a new dynamic equilibrium has come into existence in the soilscape, in which ca. 40% of the catchment is very suitable, and 25% is moderately suitable for agricultural production. In view of such large suitable areas, the Giba catchment has a good agricultural potential if soil erosion rates can be controlled, soil fertility (particularly nitrogen) increased, available water optimally used, and henceforth crop yields increased.
| S-EPMC6804989 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Triple-drug therapies have transformed HIV from a fatal condition to a chronic one. These therapies should prevent HIV drug resistance evolution, because one or more drugs suppress any partially resistant viruses. In practice, such therapies drastically reduced, but did not eliminate, resistance evolution. In this article, we reanalyze published data from an evolutionary perspective and demonstrate several intriguing patterns about HIV resistance evolution - resistance evolves (1) even after years on successful therapy, (2) sequentially, often via one mutation at a time and (3) in a partially predictable order. We describe how these observations might emerge under two models of HIV drugs varying in space or time. Despite decades of work in this area, much opportunity remains to create models with realistic parameters for three drugs, and to match model outcomes to resistance rates and genetic patterns from individuals on triple-drug therapy. Further, lessons from HIV may inform other systems.
| S-EPMC8412921 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Time lags in reporting to national surveillance systems represent a major barrier for the control of infectious diseases, preventing timely decision making and resource allocation. This issue is particularly acute for infectious diseases like malaria, which often impact rural and remote communities the hardest. In Guyana, a country located in South America, poor connectivity among remote malaria-endemic regions hampers surveillance efforts, making reporting delays a key challenge for elimination. Here, we analyze 13 years of malaria surveillance data, identifying key correlates of time lags between clinical cases occurring and being added to the central data system. We develop nowcasting methods that use historical patterns of reporting delays to estimate occurred-but-not-reported monthly malaria cases. To assess their performance, we implemented them retrospectively, using only information that would have been available at the time of estimation, and found that they substantially enhanced the estimates of malaria cases. Specifically, we found that the best performing models achieved up to two-fold improvements in accuracy (or error reduction) over known cases in selected regions. Our approach provides a simple, generalizable tool to improve malaria surveillance in endemic countries and is currently being implemented to help guide existing resource allocation and elimination efforts.
| S-EPMC8659367 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:Patient-care workers are frequently exposed to sharps injuries, which can involve the risk of serious illness. Underreporting of these injuries can compromise prevention efforts. METHODS:We linked survey responses of 1,572 non-physician patient-care workers with the Occupational Health Services (OHS) database at two academic hospitals. We determined whether survey respondents who said they had sharps injuries indicated that they had reported them and whether reported injuries were recorded in the OHS database. RESULTS:Respondents said that they reported 62 of 78 sharps injuries occurring over a 12-month period. Only 28 appeared in the OHS data. Safety practices were positively associated with respondents' saying they reported sharps injuries but not with whether reported injuries appeared in the OHS data. CONCLUSIONS:Administrators should consider creating reporting mechanisms that are simpler and more direct. Administrators and researchers should attempt to understand how incidents might be lost before they are recorded.
| S-EPMC5077298 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Departure delays are a major cause of economic loss and inefficiency in the growing industry of passenger flights. A departure delay of a current flight is inevitably affected by the late arrival of the flight immediately preceding it with the same aircraft. We seek to understand the mechanisms of such propagated delays, and to obtain universal metrics by which to evaluate an airline's operational effectiveness in delay alleviation. Here we use big data collected by the American Bureau of Transportation Statistics to design models of flight delays. Offering two dynamic models of delay propagation, we divided all carriers into two groups exhibiting a shifted power law or an exponentially truncated shifted power law delay distribution, revealing two universal delay propagation classes. Three model parameters, extracted directly from dual data mining, help characterize each airline's operational efficiency in delay mitigation. Therefore, our modeling framework provides the crucially lacking evaluation indicators for airlines, potentially contributing to the mitigation of future departure delays.
| S-EPMC7181864 | biostudies-literature
Project description:While the lack of consent is the only determining factor in considering whether a situation is rape or not, there is sufficient evidence that participants conflate wantedness with consent and pleasurableness with wantedness. Understanding how people appraise sexual scenarios may form the basis to develop appropriate educational packages. We conducted two large-scale qualitative studies in two UK universities in which participants read vignettes describing sexual encounters that were consensual or not, wanted or unwanted and pleasurable or not pleasurable. Participants provided free-text responses as to whether they perceived the scenarios to be rape or not and why they made these judgments. The second study replicated the results of the first and included a condition where participants imagined themselves as either the subject or initiator of the sexual encounter. The results indicate that a significant portion of our participants held attitudes reflecting rape myths and tended to blame the victim. Participants used distancing language when imagining themselves in the initiator condition. Participants indicated that they felt there were degrees of how much a scenario reflected rape rather than it simply being a dichotomy (rape or not). Such results indicate a lack of understanding of consent and rape and highlight avenues of potential educational materials for schools, universities or jurors.
| S-EPMC7878243 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundEmerging arboviral diseases in Europe pose a challenge due to difficulties in detecting and diagnosing cases during the initial circulation of the pathogen. Early outbreak detection enables public health authorities to take effective actions to reduce disease transmission. Quantification of the reporting delays of cases is vital to plan and assess surveillance and control strategies. Here, we provide estimates of reporting delays during an emerging arboviral outbreak and indications on how delays may have impacted onward transmission.Methodology/principal findingsUsing descriptive statistics and Kaplan-Meyer curves we analyzed case reporting delays (the period between the date of symptom onset and the date of notification to the public health authorities) during the 2017 Italian chikungunya outbreak. We further investigated the effect of outbreak detection on reporting delays by means of a Cox proportional hazard model. We estimated that the overall median reporting delay was 15.5 days, but this was reduced to 8 days after the notification of the first case. Cases with symptom onset after outbreak detection had about a 3.5 times higher reporting rate, however only 3.6% were notified within 24h from symptom onset. Remarkably, we found that 45.9% of identified cases developed symptoms before the detection of the outbreak.Conclusions/significanceThese results suggest that efforts should be undertaken to improve the early detection and identification of arboviral cases, as well as the management of vector species to mitigate the impact of long reporting delays.
| S-EPMC10501639 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Age-appropriate breastfeeding and introduction to complementary foods can shape child feeding practices, ensure adequate energy and nutrient intake and prevent linear growth faltering. This study aimed to assess mothers' and health workers' knowledge of timely introduction to complementary foods and evaluate the relationship between delays in complementary feeding and subsequent linear growth. We conducted two rounds of surveys (March/August 2017) among 249 health workers (n = 249) and caregivers (n = 2635) of children 6-23 months of age. We collected information about socio-demographic characteristics, knowledge and practice related to timely introduction to complementary foods. The study was conducted in households from the Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP) districts, in four highland regions of Ethiopia. Delays in the introduction to complementary feeding were widespread with 53% of children 6-8 months of age not consuming solid, semisolid or soft foods in the past 24 h. After controlling for child, caregiver and household characteristics, children not introduced to complementary foods by 6-8 months had a 0.48 SD lower length-for-age z-score at 12-15 months. Caregivers' knowledge was strongly and inversely correlated with untimely introduction of complementary foods in logistic regressions (OR = 0.55, p < 0.01). In turn, local health extension worker's knowledge was strongly correlated with caregiver's knowledge. Consequently, frequent and timely visits by health extension workers emphasising not only on what to feed but also when and how to feed a child are needed. Innovative ways of increasing reach, intensity and frequency of nutrition messaging by using the PSNP interactions as an additional point of contact would need to be explored further.
| S-EPMC11258766 | biostudies-literature