Project description:ObjectiveTo examine the association between elementary school opening status (ESOS) and changes in pediatric COVID-19 incidence.MethodsWe conducted a cross-sectional study of US counties with school districts with ≥500 elementary school students. The main exposure was ESOS in September, 2020. The outcome was county incidence of COVID-19. Age-stratified negative binomial regression models were constructed using county adult COVID-19 incidence.ResultsAmong 3,220 US counties, 618 (19.2%) were remote, 391 (12.1%) were hybrid, 2,022 (62.8%) were in-person. In unadjusted models, COVID-19 incidence after school started was higher among children in hybrid or in-person counties compared with remote counties. After adjustment for local adult incidence, among children aged 0-9, the incidence rate ratio of COVID-19 (IRR) compared with remote counties was 1.01 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.93-1.08) in hybrid counties and 0.79 (95% CI 0.75-0.84) in in-person counties.ConclusionsCounties with in-person learning did not have higher rates of COVID-19 after adjustment for local adult rates.
Project description:On 13 March 2020, Israel's government declared closure of all schools. Schools fully reopened on 17 May 2020. Ten days later, a major outbreak of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) occurred in a high school. The first case was registered on 26 May, the second on 27 May. They were not epidemiologically linked. Testing of the complete school community revealed 153 students (attack rate: 13.2%) and 25 staff members (attack rate: 16.6%) who were COVID-19 positive.
Project description:The COVID-19 situation and school closure has brought intense impact to millions of students and teachers. However, there is a growing pressure from parents, teachers, and children for schools to reopen and the national government has developed guidelines if schools going to reopen. This study is conducted to assess the perspective of teachers and other education personnel regarding the current situation and the outlook when schools reopen in the future. A combination of survey, focus group discussions, and interviews were conducted among school personnel (i.e. teachers, school administrator, and school principals), local education office officials, and representatives from teacher's professional associations in Indonesia. A total of 27,046 school personnel participated in the survey, making it one of the largest surveys ever conducted with school personnel in Indonesia. In addition, 53 participants were involved in the FGDs and interviews in 5 areas. Findings suggest that 76% teachers were concerned if schools reopen due to the health risks and 95% teachers preferred having a blended learning or continue using full distance learning. Nevertheless, if schools reopen, teachers expressed the needs for greater health protection among teachers and children, strengthened coordination and collaboration with local stakeholders, and further capacity strengthening to ensure that the learning process can be safe, comfortable, and effective. Specific analysis on the perspective and needs for teachers working with special needs learners and disadvantaged areas are further analysed.
Project description:BackgroundThe Robert-Koch-Institute reports that during the summer holiday period a foreign country is stated as the most likely place of infection for an average of 27 and a maximum of 49% of new SARS-CoV-2 infections in Germany.MethodsCross-sectional study on observational data. In Germany, summer school holidays are coordinated between states and spread out over 13 weeks. Employing a dynamic model with district fixed effects, we analyze the association between these holidays and weekly incidence rates across 401 German districts.ResultsWe find effects of the holiday period of around 45% of the average district incidence rates in Germany during their respective final week of holidays and the 2 weeks after holidays end. Western states tend to experience stronger effects than Eastern states. We also find statistically significant interaction effects of school holidays with per capita taxable income and the share of foreign residents in a district's population.ConclusionsOur results suggest that changed behavior during the holiday season accelerated the pandemic and made it considerably more difficult for public health authorities to contain the spread of the virus by means of contact tracing. Germany's public health authorities did not prepare adequately for this acceleration.
Project description:BackgroundThe Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic warranted a myriad of government-ordered business closures across the USA in efforts to mitigate the spread of the virus. This study aims to discover the implications of government-enforced health policies of reopening public businesses amidst the pandemic and its effect on county-level infection rates.MethodsEighty-three US counties (n = 83) that reported at least 20 000 cases as of 4 November 2020 were selected for this study. The dates when businesses (restaurants, bars, retail, gyms, salons/barbers and public schools) partially and fully reopened, as well as infection rates on the 1st and 14th days following each businesses' reopening, were recorded. Regression analysis was conducted to deduce potential associations between the 14-day change in infection rate and mask usage frequency, median household income, population density and social distancing.ResultsOn average, infection rates rose significantly as businesses reopened. The average 14-day change in infection rate was higher for fully reopened businesses (infection rate = +0.100) compared to partially reopened businesses (infection rate = +0.0454). The P-value of the two distributions was 0.001692, indicating statistical significance (P < 0.01).ConclusionThis research provides insight into the transmission of COVID-19 and promotes evidence-driven policymaking for disease prevention and community health.
Project description:In the United States, schools closed in March 2020 due to COVID-19 and began reopening in August 2020, despite continuing transmission of SARS-CoV-2. In states where in-person instruction resumed at that time, two major unknowns were the capacity at which schools would operate, which depended on the proportion of families opting for remote instruction, and adherence to face-mask requirements in schools, which depended on cooperation from students and enforcement by schools. To determine the impact of these conditions on the statewide burden of COVID-19 in Indiana, we used an agent-based model calibrated to and validated against multiple data types. Using this model, we quantified the burden of COVID-19 on K-12 students, teachers, their families, and the general population under alternative scenarios spanning three levels of school operating capacity (50 %, 75 %, and 100 %) and three levels of face-mask adherence in schools (50 %, 75 %, and 100 %). Under a scenario in which schools operated remotely, we projected 45,579 (95 % CrI: 14,109-132,546) infections and 790 (95 % CrI: 176-1680) deaths statewide between August 24 and December 31. Reopening at 100 % capacity with 50 % face-mask adherence in schools resulted in a proportional increase of 42.9 (95 % CrI: 41.3-44.3) and 9.2 (95 % CrI: 8.9-9.5) times that number of infections and deaths, respectively. In contrast, our results showed that at 50 % capacity with 100 % face-mask adherence, the number of infections and deaths were 22 % (95 % CrI: 16 %-28 %) and 11 % (95 % CrI: 5 %-18 %) higher than the scenario in which schools operated remotely. Within this range of possibilities, we found that high levels of school operating capacity (80-95 %) and intermediate levels of face-mask adherence (40-70 %) resulted in model behavior most consistent with observed data. Together, these results underscore the importance of precautions taken in schools for the benefit of their communities.
Project description:BackgroundOne of the most recent concerns of this pandemic regards the role of schools reopening in disease transmission, as well as the impact of keeping schools closed. While school reopening seems critical for the education and mental health of children, adolescents, and adults, so far the literature has not systematically reached a consensus whether to recommend the return to schools in a way that would be safe for students and staff.ObjectiveTo synthesize and critically evaluate the scientific evidence on the potential risk of accelerating the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic among children, adolescents, young adults, and adults with school reopening.MethodsThis systematic review and meta-analysis protocol was elaborated following the PRISMA-P. We will include all observational study designs, which report on the potential risk of accelerating the COVID-2019 pandemic with school reopening. Electronic databases included were MEDLINE/PubMed, Cochrane Library, EMBASE, Web of Science, SCOPUS and CNKI. Additional sources will be also retrieved, including Clinical trials.gov-NIH, The British Library, Pro Quest Dissertations Database, Public Health Gray Literature Sources and Health Evidence, Google Scholar, and pre-prints [medRXiv]. No restriction to language or date will be used as search strategy. In an independently manner, two investigators will select studies, perform data extraction, as well as perform a critical appraisal of the risk of bias and overall quality of the selected observational studies, based on their designs. The heterogeneity among the studies will be assessed using the I2 statistic test. According to the results of this test, we will verify whether a meta-analysis is feasible. If feasibility is confirmed, a random-effect model analysis will be carried out. For data analysis, the calculation of the pooled effect estimates will consider a 95% CI and alpha will be set in 0.05 using the R statistical software, v.4.0.4. In addition, we will rate the certainty of evidence based on Cochrane methods and in accordance with the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE).Expected resultsThis systematic review and meta-analysis will provide better insights into safety in the return to school in the context of the COVID-2019 pandemic, at a time when vaccination advances unevenly in several countries around the world. Hence, consistent data and robust evidence will be provided to help decision-makers and stakeholders in the current pandemic scenario.Prospero registration numberCRD42021265283; https://clinicaltrials.gov.
Project description:During the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, many countries opted for strict public health measures, including closing schools. After some time, they have started relaxing some of those restrictions. To avoid overwhelming health systems, predictions for the number of new COVID-19 cases need to be considered when choosing a school reopening strategy. Using a computer simulation based on a stochastic compartmental model that includes a heterogeneous and dynamic network, we analyse different strategies to reopen schools in the São Paulo Metropolitan Area, including one similar to the official reopening plan. Our model allows us to describe different types of relations between people, each type with a different infectiousness. Based on our simulations and model assumptions, our results indicate that reopening schools with all students at once has a big impact on the number of new COVID-19 cases, which could cause a collapse of the health system. On the other hand, our results also show that a controlled school reopening could possibly avoid the collapse of the health system, depending on how people follow sanitary measures. We estimate that postponing the schools' return date for after a vaccine becomes available may save tens of thousands of lives just in the São Paulo Metropolitan Area compared to a controlled reopening considering a worst-case scenario. We also discuss our model constraints and the uncertainty of its parameters.
Project description:The true risk of a COVID-19 resurgence as states reopen businesses is unknown. In this paper, we used anonymized cell-phone data to quantify the potential risk of COVID-19 transmission in business establishments by building a Business Risk Index that measures transmission risk over time. The index was built using two metrics, visits per square foot and the average duration of visits, to account for both density of visits and length of time visitors linger in the business. We analyzed trends in traffic patterns to 1,272,260 businesses across eight states from January 2020 to June 2020. We found that potentially risky traffic behaviors at businesses decreased by 30% by April. Since the end of April, the risk index has been increasing as states reopen. There are some notable differences in trends across states and industries. Finally, we showed that the time series of the average Business Risk Index is useful for forecasting future COVID-19 cases at the county-level (P < 0.001). We found that an increase in a county's average Business Risk Index is associated with an increase in positive COVID-19 cases in 1 week (IRR: 1.16, 95% CI: (1.1-1.26)). Our risk index provides a way for policymakers and hospital decision-makers to monitor the potential risk of COVID-19 transmission from businesses based on the frequency and density of visits to businesses. This can serve as an important metric as states monitor and evaluate their reopening strategies.