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High Child-Pugh and CRUB65 scores predict mortality of decompensated cirrhosis patients with COVID-19: A 23-center, retrospective study.

ABSTRACT: Background: COVID-19 has rapidly become a major health emergency worldwide. The characteristic, outcome, and risk factor of COVID-19 in patients with decompensated cirrhosis remain unclear.Methods: Medical records were collected from 23 Chinese hospitals. Patients with decompensated cirrhosis and age- and sex-matched non-liver disease patients were enrolled with 1:4 ratio using stratified sampling.Results: There were more comorbidities with higher Chalson Complication Index (p < 0.001), higher proportion of patients having gastrointestinal bleeding, jaundice, ascites, and diarrhea among those patients (p < 0.05) and in decompensated cirrhosis patients. Mortality (p < 0.05) and the proportion of severe ill (p < 0.001) were significantly high among those patients. Patients in severe ill subgroup had higher mortality (p < 0.001), MELD, and CRUB65 score but lower lymphocytes count. Besides, this subgroup had larger proportion of patients with abnormal (PT), activated partial thromboplatin time (APTT), D-Dimer, alanine aminotransferase (ALT), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), total bilirubin (TBL) and Creatinine (Cr) (p < 0.05). Multivariate logistic regression for severity shown that MELD and CRUB65 score reached significance. Higher Child-Pugh and CRUB65 scores were found among non-survival cases and multivariate logistic regression further inferred risk factors for adverse outcome. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves also provided remarkable demonstrations for the predictive ability of Child-Pugh and CRUB65 scores.Conclusions: COVID-19 patients with cirrhosis had larger proportion of more severely disease and higher mortality. MELD and CRUB65 score at hospital admission may predict COVID-19 severity while Child-Pugh and CRUB65 score were highly associated with non-survival among those patients.

SUBMITTER: Xiao Y

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8078510 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Background and Aim. Various methods, including the Child-Pugh score, the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score, the MELD combined with serum sodium concentration (MELD-Na) score, the integrated MELD (iMELD) score, and the albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) score, have been widely used for predicting the survival of decompensated cirrhosis (DeCi) patients. In this study, we defined and compared the prognostic value of these scores to predict mortality in DeCi patients.MethodsWe performed a single-center, observational retrospective study and analyzed 456 DeCi patients who were hospitalized in the gastroenterology department. The biochemical examination results and demographic characteristics of the patients were obtained, and five scores were calculated upon admission after 24 hours. All patients were observed until death, loss to follow-up, or specific follow-up times (28 days, 90 days, and 6 months). A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to evaluate the ability of these methods to predict mortality in DeCi patients.ResultsAt 28 days, 90 days, and 6 months, the cumulative number of deaths was 50 (11.0%), 76 (16.6%), and 91 (19.9%), respectively. The scores were significantly higher in nonsurviving patients than in surviving patients. All scores yielded viable values in predicting 28-day, 90-day, and 6-month prognoses for DeCi patients. The areas under the ROC curve (AUROCs) of the ALBI score were higher than those of the other scores, which were only over 0.700 at 28 days. The AUROC of the MELD score was higher than that of the other scores, including the MELD-Na and iMELD scores, at 90 days and 6 months.ConclusionAll five methods (Child-Pugh score, MELD score, MELD-Na score, iMELD score, and ALBI score) provided a reliable prediction of mortality for both the short-term and long-term prognosis of patients with DeCi. The ALBI score may be particularly useful for assessing short-term outcomes, whereas the MELD score may be particularly useful for assessing long-term outcomes.

Project description:Background: Soluble CD163 (sCD163) is a scavenger receptor membrane protein expressed almost exclusively on Kupffer cells and other macrophages. It was found to be associated with the severity of liver cirrhosis. The aim of the present study was to determine whether the novel biomarker sCD163 predicts outcomes in patients with decompensated cirrhosis. Materials and Methods: A single-center, observational, prospective study with 345 decompensated cirrhosis patients was conducted in the Gastroenterology Department between January 2017 and December 2020. Their plasma samples were tested by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) for sCD163 within 24 hours of admission. These patients were followed up at 28 days, 3 months and 6 months. The independent risk factors were identified with uni- and multivariate logistic regression analyses. We evaluated the predictive performance of the new scoring system (including sCD163) and the original scoring system. Results: The sCD163 level was significantly higher in non-surviving patients than in surviving patients. Positive associations were found between sCD163 levels and the Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP), Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) and albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) scores. Logistic regression confirmed that sCD163 was an independent risk factor for 28-day, 3-month, and 6-month mortality. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) of the use of sCD163 for the prediction of 28-day, 3-month, and 6-month mortality were relatively higher (AUROCs: 0.856; 0.823 and 0.811, respectively). The AUROCs of the new scores obtained by adding sCD163 to the original scoring systems (CTP + sCD163, MELD + sCD163 and ALBI + sCD163) showed that the new scoring systems had better predictive performance than the original scoring systems at all time points (P < 0.001). Conclusion: sCD163 is a prognostic predictor of short-term and long-term outcomes in decompensated cirrhosis patients. Accordingly, the addition of sCD163 to the original clinical scoring systems improved their prognostic performance.

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High Child-Pugh and CRUB65 scores predict mortality of decompensated cirrhosis patients with COVID-19: A 23-center, retrospective study.

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