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Prognostic classification in acute exacerbation of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: a multicentre retrospective cohort study.

ABSTRACT: Acute exacerbation (AE) in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a major prognostic determinant. However, evidence for its prognostic strength is mainly based on the results of small cohort studies with statistical limitations. This retrospective study, which included 108 patients with a first episode of AE-IPF, aimed to identify prognostic factors and to develop prognostic classification models. Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that a lower percent-predicted forced vital capacity within 12 months before AE onset (baseline %FVC) and a lower PaO₂/FiO₂ ratio at AE onset were independent mortality predictors. If the value of each predictor was lower than the cutoff determined by receiver-operating characteristic analysis, 1 point was assigned. Classification of patients into mild, moderate, and severe groups based on total score showed post-AE 90-day cumulative survival rates of 83.3%, 66.2%, and 22.2%, respectively (model 1: C-index 0.702). Moreover, a decision tree-based model was created with the recursive partitioning method using baseline %FVC and PaO₂/FiO₂ ratio at AE onset from among multivariable; accordingly, patients were classified into 3 groups with post-AE 90-day cumulative survival rates of 84.1%, 64.3%, and 24.0%, respectively (model 2: C-index 0.735). These models can guide clinicians in determining therapeutic strategies and help design future studies on AE-IPF.

SUBMITTER: Suzuki T

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8079397 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Prognostic classification in acute exacerbation of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: a multicentre retrospective cohort study.

Suzuki Takahito T Hozumi Hironao H Miyashita Koichi K Kono Masato M Suzuki Yuzo Y Karayama Masato M Furuhashi Kazuki K Hasegawa Hirotsugu H Fujisawa Tomoyuki T Enomoto Noriyuki N Nakamura Yutaro Y Inui Naoki N Yokomura Koshi K Nakamura Hidenori H Suda Takafumi T

Scientific reports 20210427 1

Acute exacerbation (AE) in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a major prognostic determinant. However, evidence for its prognostic strength is mainly based on the results of small cohort studies with statistical limitations. This retrospective study, which included 108 patients with a first episode of AE-IPF, aimed to identify prognostic factors and to develop prognostic classification models. Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that a lower percent-predicted forced vital capacity ...[more]

PMID: 33907284

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Project description:ObjectiveTo clarify prognostic factors of acute exacerbation (AE) of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF).DesignA systematic review and meta-analysis.Data sourcesMedline, Embase and Science Citation Index Expanded were searched from 2002 through 1 March 2019.Eligibility criteria for selecting studiesThe review included primary studies addressing the association between the outcomes such as all-cause mortality of AE of IPF and its potential prognostic factors, which were designated as any clinical information related to the outcomes.Data extraction and synthesisTwo reviewers extracted relevant data independently and assessed risk of bias. Univariate results were pooled using a random-effect model if at least three studies were available. Prognostic factors were determined based on significant and consistent results on both univariate and multivariate analyses in the majority of studies.ResultsOut of a total of 6763 articles retrieved, 37 were eligible and 31 potential prognostic factors for all-cause mortality were selected. Each study was subject to certain methodological shortcomings. The following five factors were statistically significant by a meta-analysis of univariate results, which was confirmed by multivariate analysis, that is, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II score (HR 1.10, 1.01 to 1.19), partial pressure of arterial oxygen to fraction of inspired oxygen (PaO2/FiO2) ratio (ORs 0.99 in two studies and HRs 0.31 and 0.99 in two studies, respectively), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) (HRs 1.002, 1.003, 1.01 and 1.02), white blood cell (WBC) count (OR 1.38, 1.04 to 1.83) and oxygen therapy before AE (HRs 3.68, 1.05 to 12.9 and 2.34, 1.04 to 5.28) (multivariate analysis, 95% CI).ConclusionsAPACHE II score, PaO2/FiO2 ratio, LDH, WBC count and oxygen therapy before AE were deemed as prognostic factors of AE of IPF. Although there are some methodological limitations in this study, these findings are reliable due to consistent results by both univariate and multivariate analyses.Prospero registration numberCRD42018106172.

Project description:BackgroundAcute exacerbation of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (AE-IPF) is well known as a life-threatening condition during its clinical course. However, the clinical features and prognosis in AE of unclassifiable idiopathic interstitial pneumonia (AE-UCIIP) remain to be elucidated. The aim of this study was to clarify the clinical features and prognosis of AE-UCIIP compared with those of AE-IPF.MethodsIn 187 patients with UCIIP or IPF, 64 patients with AE-UCIIP or AE-IPF, who were diagnosed and treated at our hospital, were retrospectively evaluated.ResultsA total of 24 patients with AE-UCIIP were significantly older (p = 0.011), included more women (p < 0.001) and never-smokers (p < 0.001), and showed fewer lung lesions on high-resolution computed tomography (p = 0.006) than 40 patients with AE-IPF. Incidence of AE-UCIIP was 10.29%/year and was significantly higher than in AE-IPF (Gray's test, p = 0.008). Prognosis of AE-UCIIP was as poor as that of AE-IPF (log-rank, p = 0.681). Percent-predicted forced vital capacity (%FVC) [hazard ratio (HR) 0.934, p = 0.045], and GAP stage within 12 months before AE (HR 3.530, p = 0.023), and partial pressure arterial oxygen/fraction of inspired oxygen (PaO2/FiO2) ratio at AE (HR 0.998, p = 0.016) were significant prognostic factors. Finally, commencement of long-duration (⩾12 h) direct hemoperfusion with a polymyxin B-immobilised fibre column (PMX-DHP) within 2 days after admission significantly improved survival (log-rank, p = 0.038) and was a significant prognostic factor (HR 0.175, p = 0.0039) in AE-UCIIP. Long-duration PMX-DHP showed favourable treatment effects even in the combined group of patients with AE-UCIIP or AE-IPF (log-rank p = 0.002; HR 0.328, p = 0.006).ConclusionsPatients with AE-UCIIP were older and included more women and never-smokers than those with AE-IPF. Prognosis of AE-UCIIP was as poor as that of AE-IPF. The reviews of this paper are available via the supplemental material section.

Dataset Information

Prognostic classification in acute exacerbation of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: a multicentre retrospective cohort study.

Publications

Prognostic classification in acute exacerbation of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: a multicentre retrospective cohort study.

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