Predictability of COVID-19 Hospitalizations, Intensive Care Unit Admissions, and Respiratory Assistance in Portugal: Longitudinal Cohort Study.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT: Background
In the face of the current COVID-19 pandemic, the timely prediction of upcoming medical needs for infected individuals enables better and quicker care provision when necessary and management decisions within health care systems.Objective
This work aims to predict the medical needs (hospitalizations, intensive care unit admissions, and respiratory assistance) and survivability of individuals testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 infection in Portugal.Methods
A retrospective cohort of 38,545 infected individuals during 2020 was used. Predictions of medical needs were performed using state-of-the-art machine learning approaches at various stages of a patient's cycle, namely, at testing (prehospitalization), at posthospitalization, and during postintensive care. A thorough optimization of state-of-the-art predictors was undertaken to assess the ability to anticipate medical needs and infection outcomes using demographic and comorbidity variables, as well as dates associated with symptom onset, testing, and hospitalization.Results
For the target cohort, 75% of hospitalization needs could be identified at the time of testing for SARS-CoV-2 infection. Over 60% of respiratory needs could be identified at the time of hospitalization. Both predictions had >50% precision.Conclusions
The conducted study pinpoints the relevance of the proposed predictive models as good candidates to support medical decisions in the Portuguese population, including both monitoring and in-hospital care decisions. A clinical decision support system is further provided to this end.
SUBMITTER: Patricio A
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8080965 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Similar Datasets
Project description:IntroductionHyperkalemia is a common, potentially life-threatening condition in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). We studied the association between hyperkalemia and mortality, cardiovascular events, hospitalizations, and intensive care unit (ICU) admissions.MethodsWe performed a retrospective cohort study using administrative databases in Manitoba, Canada. All adults (≥18 years of age) with potassium tests between January 2007 and December 2016 were included, with follow-up until March 31, 2017. Propensity score matching was performed among patients with de novo hyperkalemia (serum potassium ≥ 5.0 mmol/l) and patients who were nonhyperkalemic. The association between hyperkalemia and normokalemia and mortality was assessed using multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression models, adjusting for patient characteristics in a 1:1 propensity score-matched sample. Secondary outcomes included cardiovascular events, hospitalizations, and ICU admissions. A sensitivity analysis was performed with hyperkalemia defined as serum potassium ≥ 5.5 mmol/l.ResultsOf 93,667 patients with de novo hyperkalemia, 36% had diabetes mellitus (DM), 28% had CKD, and 21% had heart failure (HF). In the propensity score-matched sample of 177,082 individuals, hyperkalemia was associated with an increased risk for all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 1.15 [95% confidence interval {CI} 1.13-1.18], P < 0.001), cardiovascular events (HR 1.20 [95% CI 1.14-1.26], P < 0.001), short-term mortality (odds ratio [OR] 1.29 [95% CI 1.24-1.34], P < 0.001), hospitalizations (OR 1.71 [95% CI 1.68-1.74]), and ICU admissions (OR 3.48 [95% CI 3.34-3.62], P < 0.001). Findings were unchanged when a threshold of serum potassium ≥ 5.5 mmol/l was used.ConclusionHyperkalemia was an independent risk factor for all-cause mortality, cardiovascular events, hospitalizations, and ICU admissions. This finding expands our understanding of important clinical outcomes associated with hyperkalemia.
| S-EPMC8116905 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Intensive care unit (ICU) care is expensive for patients and providers, and utilization and spending on ICU resources have increased. The No Surprises Act, passed in 2022, specifically prohibits balance billing by ICU specialists (intensivists) for emergency and most non-emergency care. The potential economic impact of this remains unclear, given few data exist on the magnitude of balance billing in the ICU. Using the MarketScan Commercial (IBM) database, we studied hospitalizations in which ICU care was provided ("ICU hospitalizations") between 2010 and 2019. Hospitalizations were characterized as fully in-network, fully out-of-network, or "mixed" (contained both in- and out-of-network services). The share of "mixed" hospitalizations among all ICU hospitalizations rose from 26% to 33% over the study period. Over half of these mixed hospitalizations contained out-of-network services specifically delivered within the ICU. Total hospitalization spending averaged $81 047, with ICU spending averaging $15 799. On average, 11% of ICU spending within these hospitalizations was out-of-network. Patients were plausibly balance-billed in approximately one-third of ICU hospitalizations, for thousands of dollars per hospitalization. Given that the No Surprises Act prevents this type of balance billing, the portended revenue loss may lead to changes in provider negotiations with insurers concerning network status and prices, which could affect the care patients receive.
| S-EPMC10932732 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundIlio-psoas hematoma is a potentially lethal condition that can arise during hospital stay. However, neither the incidence nor the prognosis of patients whose stay in intensive care units (ICU) is complicated by a iatrogenic ilio-psoas hematoma is known.MethodsA bicentric retrospective study was conducted to compile the patients who developed an ilio-psoas hematoma while they were hospitalized in ICU between January 2009 and December 2016. Their biometric characteristics, pre-existing conditions, the circumstances in which the hematoma was diagnosed, the treatments they received and their prognosis were recorded.ResultsForty patients were diagnosed with an ilio-psoas hematoma during their ICU stay. The incidence of this complication was 3.8 cases for 1000 admissions, taking into account only patients who stayed more than three days in ICU. The median age of patients was 74 years old and the median time between admission and the diagnosis of ilio-psoas hematoma was 12.6 days. A large proportion of them was obese (42.5%) and/or under dialysis (50%) prior to developing their hematoma. Ninety-five percent of the patients had heparin at prophylactic or therapeutic doses. Only 10% of them were above the therapeutic range of anticoagulation. The ICU mortality rate was of 50% following this complication (versus a general mortality rate of 22% for the patients without IPH over the same period of time). Patients with IPH that were complicated by disseminated intravascular coagulopathy had a significantly higher mortality rate than those with IPH and no disseminated intravascular coagulopathy (OR 6.91, 95% CI [1.28; 58.8], p = 0.04).ConclusionAge, anticoagulation, a high body mass index and dialysis seem to be risk factors of developing an ilio-psoas hematoma in ICU. Iatrogenic ilio-psoas hematomas complicated by disseminated intravascular coagulopathies are more at risk of leading to death. It is noteworthy that activated partial thromboplastin time above the therapeutic range was not a good predictor of developing a hematoma for patients who received unfractioned heparin therapy.
| S-EPMC6386274 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ImportanceIncreased patient acuity, decreased intensive care unit (ICU) bed availability, and a shortage of intensivist physicians have led to strained ICU capacity. The resulting increase in emergency department (ED) boarding time for patients requiring ICU-level care has been associated with worse outcomes.ObjectiveTo determine the association of a novel ED-based ICU, the Emergency Critical Care Center (EC3), with 30-day mortality and inpatient ICU admission.Design, setting, and participantsThis retrospective cohort study used electronic health records of all ED visits between September 1, 2012, and July 31, 2017, with a documented clinician encounter at a large academic medical center in the United States with approximately 75 000 adult ED visits per year. The pre-EC3 cohort included ED patients from September 2, 2012, to February 15, 2015, when the EC3 opened, and the post-EC3 cohort included ED patients from February 16, 2015, to July 31, 2017. Data analyses were conducted from March 2, 2018, to May 28, 2019.ExposuresImplementation of EC3, an ED-based ICU designed to provide rapid initiation of ICU-level care in the ED setting and seamless transition to inpatient ICUs.Main outcomes and measuresThe main outcomes were 30-day mortality among ED patients and rate of ED to ICU admission.ResultsA total of 349 310 visits from a consecutive sample of ED patients (mean [SD] age, 48.5 [19.7] years; 189 709 [54.3%] women) were examined; the pre-EC3 cohort included 168 877 visits and the post-EC3 cohort included 180 433 visits. Implementation of EC3 was associated with a statistically significant reduction in risk-adjusted 30-day mortality among all ED patients (pre-EC3, 2.13%; post-EC3, 1.83%; adjusted odds ratio, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.80-0.90; number needed to treat, 333 patient encounters; 95% CI, 256-476). The risk-adjusted rate of ED admission to ICU decreased with implementation of EC3 (pre-EC3, 3.2%; post-EC3, 2.7%; adjusted odds ratio, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.76-0.83; number needed to treat, 179 patient encounters; 95% CI, 149-217).Conclusions and relevanceImplementation of a novel ED-based ICU was associated with improved 30-day survival and reduced inpatient ICU admission. Additional research is warranted to further explore the value of this novel care delivery model in various health care systems.
| S-EPMC6659143 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ImportanceHigh health care costs encourage initiatives that avoid overuse of resources and identify opportunities to promote appropriate care.ObjectiveTo investigate the causes of potentially avoidable surgical intensive care unit (SICU) admissions and disposition delays to determine whether targeted interventions could decrease these stays.Design, setting, and participantsThis prospective, observational study focused on potentially avoidable SICU days, as determined by observers with input from the rounding intensivists at a 24-bed open SICU at an urban, academic hospital. The preintervention phase occurred from April 6 through June 21, 2015; after implementation of targeted interventions, the postintervention phase occurred from April 4 through June 28, 2016. Data collected included demographic characteristics, reason for admission, and length of stay. All patients admitted to the SICU during the preintervention and postintervention phases were included in the analysis.InterventionsBased on results collected in the preintervention phase, targeted interventions were designed and implemented from July 1, 2015, through March 31, 2016, including (1) reducing SICU care for minor traumatic brain injury, (2) optimizing postoperative airway management, (3) enhancing communication between services regarding transfers to the SICU, (4) identifying and facilitating more timely end-of-life conversations and supportive care consultations, and (5) encouraging early disposition of patients to floor beds.Main outcomes and measuresChanges in the proportion of potentially avoidable SICU days owing to potentially avoidable admissions and/or disposition delays.ResultsA total of 459 patients (253 men [55.1%] and 206 women [44.9%]; median age, 62 years [interquartile range, 46-75 years]) were admitted during the preintervention and postintervention phases. Of 261 patients admitted during the preintervention period and 245 during the postintervention period, median SICU and hospital length of stay remained unchanged. A reduction was noted in the percentage of postintervention SICU days owing to potentially avoidable admissions (152 of 1168 days [13%] vs 118 of 1338 days [8.8%]; P?=?.001) and disposition delays (138 of 1168 days [11.8%] vs 97 of 1338 days [7.2%]; P?<?.001). During the postintervention period, decreases were noted in the SICU days related to the most common sources of potentially avoidable admissions (SICU stay ?24 hours, airway concerns, and somnolence) and disposition delays (end-of-life decisions and floor bed unavailable) as well as in the overall rate of potentially avoidable days (269 of 1168 days [23%] vs 205 of 1338 days [15.3%]; P?<?.001).Conclusions and relevanceNearly one-fourth of SICU days could be categorized as potentially avoidable. Targeted interventions resulted in a significant reduction of potentially avoidable SICU days.
| S-EPMC5710417 | biostudies-literature
Project description:PurposeTerminal oncology intensive care unit (ICU) hospitalizations are associated with high costs and inferior quality of care. This study identifies and characterizes potentially avoidable terminal admissions of oncology patients to ICUs.MethodsThis was a retrospective case series of patients cared for in an academic medical center's ambulatory oncology practice who died in an ICU during July 1, 2012 to June 30, 2013. An oncologist, intensivist, and hospitalist reviewed each patient's electronic health record from 3 months preceding terminal hospitalization until death. The primary outcome was the proportion of terminal ICU hospitalizations identified as potentially avoidable by two or more reviewers. Univariate and multivariate analysis were performed to identify characteristics associated with avoidable terminal ICU hospitalizations.ResultsSeventy-two patients met inclusion criteria. The majority had solid tumor malignancies (71%), poor performance status (51%), and multiple encounters with the health care system. Despite high-intensity health care utilization, only 25% had documented advance directives. During a 4-day median ICU length of stay, 81% were intubated and 39% had cardiopulmonary resuscitation. Forty-seven percent of these hospitalizations were identified as potentially avoidable. Avoidable hospitalizations were associated with factors including: worse performance status before admission (median 2 v 1; P = .01), worse Charlson comorbidity score (median 8.5 v 7.0, P = .04), reason for hospitalization (P = .006), and number of prior hospitalizations (median 2 v 1; P = .05).ConclusionGiven the high frequency of avoidable terminal ICU hospitalizations, health care leaders should develop strategies to prospectively identify patients at high risk and formulate interventions to improve end-of-life care.
| S-EPMC5063186 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundDespite international commitment to Millennium Development Goal 5, maternal mortality remains high in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) of sub-Saharan Africa. This is in part due to infrastructure gaps, including availability of intensive care units (ICUs). We sought to use obstetric ICU utilization as a marker of severe maternal morbidity and provide an initial characterization of its relationship with in-hospital mortality.MethodsA prospective observational cohort study of all obstetric subjects admitted to the ICU of Kamuzu Central Hospital in Malawi from September 2016 to March 2018. We reviewed charts at the time of ICU admission to assess the indication for admission, clinical characteristics and laboratory values. Subjects were followed until death or discharge. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality.ResultsOne-hundred-and-five obstetric patients were admitted to the study ICU (23% of all admissions). The median age was 26 years. The majority (79%) had undergone recent surgery; 40 (52%) an abdominal postnatal or cesarean hysterectomy and 31 (40%) a cesarean delivery without hysterectomy. Ninety-five percent required mechanical ventilation and 48% required vasopressors. Overall in-hospital mortality was 49%.ConclusionsThe proportion of obstetric subjects admitted to the ICU in Malawi is nearly 1 in 4, which exceeds that found in high-income countries by orders of magnitude. Intensive care unit admission was associated with high mortality in this population. Investments in improving infrastructure and care gaps may include addressing available ICU bed and blood-banking needs, and increasing the number of providers trained in managing critical illness among obstetric patients.
| S-EPMC6626685 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background:Admission of patients perceived as potentially inappropriate for intensive care is a very sensitive and controversial issue. We aimed to evaluate the use of medical resources in the intensive care unit (ICU) and outcomes of patients according to a physician's judgment of appropriateness. Methods:ICU physicians classified patients who were admitted to the medical ICU of a tertiary hospital as appropriate or inappropriate for intensive care within 24 hours of admission. Patient outcomes including mortality were analyzed according to appropriateness. Additionally, the usage and duration of mechanical ventilation (MV), renal replacement therapy (RRT), and extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) were analyzed according to appropriateness. Results:In total, 105 patients (male, 55.4%; mean age, 62 years) were included. Twelve (11.4%) patients were considered inappropriate for intensive care based on guidance published by the Society of Critical Care Medicine through a questionnaire survey of physicians. There was no significant difference between patients considered inappropriate or appropriate for ICU admission regarding the use and duration of MV, RRT, and ECMO. In contrast, the ICU, in-hospital, 28-day, 90-day, and total mortality rates were significantly higher among patients with inappropriate admission than among patients with appropriate admission (ICU mortality: 50.0% vs. 25.8%, P=0.008; in-hospital mortality: 58.3% vs. 43.0%, P=0.028; 28-day mortality: 58.3% vs. 33.3%, P=0.019; 90-day mortality: 66.7% vs. 44.1%, P=0.023). Conclusions:Despite higher mortality, the amount of medical resources used for patients considered potentially inappropriate for intensive care did not differ from the resources used for patients considered suitable for ICU care.
| S-EPMC6849049 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundInfluenza virus predictably causes an annual epidemic resulting in a considerable burden of illness in Australia. Children are disproportionately affected and can experience severe illness and complications, which occasionally result in death.MethodsWe conducted a retrospective descriptive study using data collated in the Australian and New Zealand Paediatric Intensive Care (ANZPIC) Registry of influenza-related intensive care unit (ICU) admissions over a 17-year period (1997-2013, inclusive) in children <16 years old. National laboratory-confirmed influenza notifications were used for comparison.ResultsBetween 1997 and 2013, a total of 704 influenza-related ICU admissions were recorded, at a rate of 6.2 per 1,000 all-cause ICU admissions. Age at admission ranged from 0 days and 15.9 years (median = 2.1 years), with 135 (19.2%) aged <6 months. Pneumonia/pneumonitis and bronchiolitis were the most common primary diagnoses among influenza-related admissions (21.9% and 13.6%, respectively). More than half of total cases (59.2%) were previously healthy (no co-morbidities recorded), and in the remainder, chronic lung disease (16.7%) and asthma (12.5%) were the most common co-morbidities recorded. Pathogen co-detection occurred in 24.7% of cases, most commonly with respiratory syncytial virus or a staphylococcal species. Median length of all ICU admissions was 3.2 days (range 2.0 hours- 107.4 days) and 361 (51.3%) admissions required invasive respiratory support for a median duration of 4.3 days (range 0.2 hours- 107.5 days). There were 27 deaths recorded, 14 (51.9%) in children without a recorded co-morbidity.ConclusionInfluenza causes a substantial number of ICU admissions in Australian children each year with the majority occurring in previously healthy children.
| S-EPMC4811543 | biostudies-literature