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A flexible nonlinear mixed effects model for HIV viral load rebound after treatment interruption.

ABSTRACT: Characterization of HIV viral rebound after the discontinuation of antiretroviral therapy is central to HIV cure research. We propose a parametric nonlinear mixed effects model for the viral rebound trajectory, which often has a rapid rise to a peak value followed by a decrease to a viral load set point. We choose a flexible functional form that captures the shapes of viral rebound trajectories and can also provide biological insights regarding the rebound process. Each parameter can incorporate a random effect to allow for variation in parameters across individuals. Key features of viral rebound trajectories such as viral set points are represented by the parameters in the model, which facilitates assessment of intervention effects and identification of important pretreatment interruption predictors for these features. We employ a stochastic expectation-maximization (StEM) algorithm to incorporate HIV-1 RNA values that are below the lower limit of assay quantification. We evaluate the performance of our model in simulation studies and apply the proposed model to longitudinal HIV-1 viral load data from five AIDS Clinical Trials Group treatment interruption studies.

SUBMITTER: Wang R

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8081565 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A flexible nonlinear mixed effects model for HIV viral load rebound after treatment interruption.

Wang Rui R Bing Ante A Wang Cathy C Hu Yuchen Y Bosch Ronald J RJ DeGruttola Victor V

Statistics in medicine 20200415 15

Characterization of HIV viral rebound after the discontinuation of antiretroviral therapy is central to HIV cure research. We propose a parametric nonlinear mixed effects model for the viral rebound trajectory, which often has a rapid rise to a peak value followed by a decrease to a viral load set point. We choose a flexible functional form that captures the shapes of viral rebound trajectories and can also provide biological insights regarding the rebound process. Each parameter can incorporate ...[more]

PMID: 32293756

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Project description:BackgroundThe discovery of potent and broadly neutralizing antibodies (bNAbs) against human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) has made passive immunization a potential strategy for the prevention and treatment of HIV infection. We sought to determine whether passive administration of VRC01, a bNAb targeting the HIV CD4-binding site, can safely prevent or delay plasma viral rebound after the discontinuation of antiretroviral therapy (ART).MethodsWe conducted two open-label trials (AIDS Clinical Trials Group [ACTG] A5340 and National Institutes of Health [NIH] 15-I-0140) of the safety, side-effect profile, pharmacokinetic properties, and antiviral activity of VRC01 in persons with HIV infection who were undergoing interruption of ART.ResultsA total of 24 participants were enrolled, and one serious alcohol-related adverse event occurred. Viral rebound occurred despite plasma VRC01 concentrations greater than 50 μg per milliliter. The median time to rebound was 4 weeks in the A5340 trial and 5.6 weeks in the NIH trial. Study participants were more likely than historical controls to have viral suppression at week 4 (38% vs. 13%, P=0.04 by a two-sided Fisher's exact test in the A5340 trial; and 80% vs. 13%, P<0.001 by a two-sided Fisher's exact test in the NIH trial) but the difference was not significant at week 8. Analyses of virus populations before ART as well as before and after ART interruption showed that VRC01 exerted pressure on rebounding virus, resulting in restriction of recrudescent viruses and selection for preexisting and emerging antibody neutralization-resistant virus.ConclusionsVRC01 slightly delayed plasma viral rebound in the trial participants, as compared with historical controls, but it did not maintain viral suppression by week 8. In the small number of participants enrolled in these trials, no safety concerns were identified with passive immunization with a single bNAb (VRC01). (Funded by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and others; ACTG A5340 and NIH 15-I-0140 ClinicalTrials.gov numbers, NCT02463227 and NCT02471326 .).

Project description:If strategies currently in development succeed in eradicating HIV reservoirs in peripheral blood and lymphoid tissues, residual sources of virus may remain in anatomic compartments. Paired blood and semen samples were collected from 12 individuals enrolled in a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled therapeutic vaccine clinical trial in people with HIV (PWH) who began antiretroviral therapy (ART) during acute or early infection (ClinicalTrials registration no. NCT01859325). After the week 56 visit (postintervention), all participants interrupted ART. At the first available time points after viral rebound, we sequenced HIV-1 env (C2-V3), gag (p24), and pol (reverse transcriptase) regions amplified from cell-free HIV RNA in blood and seminal plasma using the MiSeq Illumina platform. Comprehensive sequence and phylogenetic analyses were performed to evaluate viral population structure, compartmentalization, and viral diversity in blood and seminal plasma. Compared to that in blood, HIV RNA rebound in semen occurred significantly later (median of 66 versus 42 days post-ART interruption, P < 0.01) and reached lower levels (median 164 versus 16,090 copies/ml, P < 0.01). Three of five participants with available sequencing data presented compartmentalized viral rebound between blood and semen in one HIV coding region. Despite early ART initiation, HIV RNA molecular diversity was higher in semen than in blood in all three coding regions for most participants. Higher HIV RNA molecular diversity in the genital tract (compared to that in blood plasma) and evidence of compartmentalization illustrate the distinct evolutionary dynamics between these two compartments after ART interruption. Future research should evaluate whether the genital compartment might contribute to viral rebound in some PWH interrupting ART.IMPORTANCE To cure HIV, we likely need to target the reservoirs in all anatomic compartments. Here, we used sophisticated statistical and phylogenetic methods to analyze blood and semen samples collected from 12 persons with HIV who began antiretroviral therapy (ART) during very early HIV infection and who interrupted their ART as part of a clinical trial. First, we found that HIV RNA rebound in semen occurred significantly later and reached lower levels than in blood. Second, we found that the virus in semen was genetically different in some participants compared to that in blood. Finally, we found increased HIV RNA molecular diversity in semen compared to that in blood in almost all study participants. These data suggest that the HIV RNA populations emerging from the genital compartment after ART interruption might not be the same as those emerging from blood plasma. Future research should evaluate whether the genital compartment might contribute to viral rebound in some people with HIV (PWH) interrupting ART.

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A flexible nonlinear mixed effects model for HIV viral load rebound after treatment interruption.

Publications

A flexible nonlinear mixed effects model for HIV viral load rebound after treatment interruption.

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