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Ahead of the second wave: Early warning for COVID-19 by wastewater surveillance in Hungary.

ABSTRACT: Wastewater based epidemiology is a potential early warning tool for the detection of COVID-19 outbreak. Sewage surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 RNA was introduced in Hungary after the successful containment of the first wave of the pandemic to forecast the resurge of infections. Three wastewater treatment plants servicing the entire population (1.8 million) of the capital, Budapest were sampled weekly. 24 h composite (n = 44) and grab samples (n = 21) were concentrated by an in-house flat sheet membrane ultrafiltration method. The efficiency and reproducibility of the method was comparable to those previously published. SARS-CoV-2 RNA was quantified using RT-qPCR of the N gene. The first positive signal in sewage was detected 2 weeks before the rise in case numbers. Viral concentration and volume-adjusted viral load correlated to the weekly new cases from the same week and the rolling 7-day average of active cases in the subsequent week. The correlation was more pronounced in the ascending phase of the outbreak, data was divergent once case numbers plateaued. Wastewater surveillance was found to be effective in predicting the second wave of the outbreak in Hungary. Data indicated that even relatively low frequency (weekly) sampling is useful and at the same time, cost effective tool in outbreak detection.

SUBMITTER: Roka E

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8081569 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Ahead of the second wave: Early warning for COVID-19 by wastewater surveillance in Hungary.

Róka Eszter E Khayer Bernadett B Kis Zoltán Z Kovács Luca Bella LB Schuler Eszter E Magyar Nóra N Málnási Tibor T Oravecz Orsolya O Pályi Bernadett B Pándics Tamás T Vargha Márta M

The Science of the total environment 20210429

Wastewater based epidemiology is a potential early warning tool for the detection of COVID-19 outbreak. Sewage surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 RNA was introduced in Hungary after the successful containment of the first wave of the pandemic to forecast the resurge of infections. Three wastewater treatment plants servicing the entire population (1.8 million) of the capital, Budapest were sampled weekly. 24 h composite (n = 44) and grab samples (n = 21) were concentrated by an in-house flat sheet membr ...[more]

PMID: 33971598

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Project description:BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic has severely impacted Europe, resulting in a high caseload and deaths that varied by country. The second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic has breached the borders of Europe. Public health surveillance is necessary to inform policy and guide leaders.ObjectiveThis study aimed to provide advanced surveillance metrics for COVID-19 transmission that account for weekly shifts in the pandemic, speed, acceleration, jerk, and persistence, to better understand countries at risk for explosive growth and those that are managing the pandemic effectively.MethodsWe performed a longitudinal trend analysis and extracted 62 days of COVID-19 data from public health registries. We used an empirical difference equation to measure the daily number of cases in Europe as a function of the prior number of cases, the level of testing, and weekly shift variables based on a dynamic panel model that was estimated using the generalized method of moments approach by implementing the Arellano-Bond estimator in R.ResultsNew COVID-19 cases slightly decreased from 158,741 (week 1, January 4-10, 2021) to 152,064 (week 2, January 11-17, 2021), and cumulative cases increased from 22,507,271 (week 1) to 23,890,761 (week 2), with a weekly increase of 1,383,490 between January 10 and January 17. France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom had the largest 7-day moving averages for new cases during week 1. During week 2, the 7-day moving average for France and Spain increased. From week 1 to week 2, the speed decreased (37.72 to 33.02 per 100,000), acceleration decreased (0.39 to -0.16 per 100,000), and jerk increased (-1.30 to 1.37 per 100,000).ConclusionsThe United Kingdom, Spain, and Portugal, in particular, are at risk for a rapid expansion in COVID-19 transmission. An examination of the European region suggests that there was a decrease in the COVID-19 caseload between January 4 and January 17, 2021. Unfortunately, the rates of jerk, which were negative for Europe at the beginning of the month, reversed course and became positive, despite decreases in speed and acceleration. Finally, the 7-day persistence rate was higher during week 2 than during week 1. These measures indicate that the second wave of the pandemic may be subsiding, but some countries remain at risk for new outbreaks and increased transmission in the absence of rapid policy responses.

Project description:Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) is useful in predicting temporal fluctuations of COVID-19 incidence in communities and providing early warnings of pending outbreaks. To investigate the relationship between SARS-CoV-2 concentrations in wastewater and COVID-19 incidence in communities, a 12-month study between September 1, 2020, and August 31, 2021, prior to the Omicron surge, was conducted. 407 untreated wastewater samples were collected from the Great Lakes Water Authority (GLWA) in southeastern Michigan. N1 and N2 genes of SARS-CoV-2 were quantified using RT-ddPCR. Daily confirmed COVID-19 cases for the City of Detroit, and Wayne, Macomb, Oakland counties between September 1, 2020, and October 4, 2021, were collected from a public data source. The total concentrations of N1 and N2 genes ranged from 714.85 to 7145.98 gc/L and 820.47 to 6219.05 gc/L, respectively, which were strongly correlated with the 7-day moving average of total daily COVID-19 cases in the associated areas, after 5 weeks of the viral measurement. The results indicate a potential 5-week lag time of wastewater surveillance preceding COVID-19 incidence for the Detroit metropolitan area. Four statistical models were established to analyze the relationship between SARS-CoV-2 concentrations in wastewater and COVID-19 incidence in the study areas. Under a 5-week lag time scenario with both N1 and N2 genes, the autoregression model with seasonal patterns and vector autoregression model were more effective in predicting COVID-19 cases during the study period. To investigate the impact of flow parameters on the correlation, the original N1 and N2 gene concentrations were normalized by wastewater flow parameters. The statistical results indicated the optimum models were consistent for both normalized and non-normalized data. In addition, we discussed parameters that explain the observed lag time. Furthermore, we evaluated the impact of the omicron surge that followed, and the impact of different sampling methods on the estimation of lag time.

Project description:Wastewater surveillance (WS), when coupled with advanced molecular techniques, offers near real-time monitoring of community-wide transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and allows assessing and mitigating COVID-19 outbreaks, by evaluating the total microbial assemblage in a community. Composite wastewater samples (24 h) were collected weekly from a manhole between December 2020 and November 2021 in Maryland, USA. RT-qPCR results showed concentrations of SARS-CoV-2 RNA recovered from wastewater samples reflected incidence of COVID-19 cases. When a drastic increase in COVID-19 was detected in February 2021, samples were selected for microbiome analysis (DNA metagenomics, RNA metatranscriptomics, and targeted SARS-CoV-2 sequencing). Targeted SARS-CoV-2 sequencing allowed for detection of important genetic mutations, such as spike: K417N, D614G, P681H, T716I, S982A, and D1118H, commonly associated with increased cell entry and reinfection. Microbiome analysis (DNA and RNA) provided important insight with respect to human health-related factors, including detection of pathogens and their virulence/antibiotic resistance genes. Specific microbial species comprising the wastewater microbiome correlated with incidence of SARS-CoV-2 RNA, suggesting potential association with SARS-CoV-2 infection. Climatic conditions, namely, temperature, were related to incidence of COVID-19 and detection of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater, having been monitored as part of an environmental risk score assessment carried out in this study. In summary, the wastewater microbiome provides useful public health information, and hence, a valuable tool to proactively detect and characterize pathogenic agents circulating in a community. In effect, metagenomics of wastewater can serve as an early warning system for communicable diseases, by providing a larger source of information for health departments and public officials. IMPORTANCE Traditionally, testing for COVID-19 is done by detecting SARS-CoV-2 in samples collected from nasal swabs and/or saliva. However, SARS-CoV-2 can also be detected in feces of infected individuals. Therefore, wastewater samples can be used to test all individuals of a community contributing to the sewage collection system, i.e., the infrastructure, such as gravity pipes, manholes, tanks, lift stations, control structures, and force mains, that collects used water from residential and commercial sources and conveys the flow to a wastewater treatment plant. Here, we profile community wastewater collected from a manhole, detect presence of SARS-CoV-2, identify genetic mutations of SARS-CoV-2, and perform COVID-19 risk score assessment of the study area. Using metagenomics analysis, we also detect other microorganisms (bacteria, fungi, protists, and viruses) present in the samples. Results show that by analyzing all microorganisms present in wastewater, pathogens circulating in a community can provide an early warning for contagious diseases.

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Ahead of the second wave: Early warning for COVID-19 by wastewater surveillance in Hungary.

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Ahead of the second wave: Early warning for COVID-19 by wastewater surveillance in Hungary.

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