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A predictive score at admission for respiratory failure among hospitalized patients with confirmed 2019 Coronavirus Disease: a simple tool for a complex problem.

ABSTRACT: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has implacably stricken on the wellness of many countries and their health-care systems. The aim of the present study is to analyze the clinical characteristics of the initial wave of patients with COVID-19 attended in our center, and to identify the key variables predicting the development of respiratory failure. Prospective design study with concurrent data retrieval from automated medical records of all hospitalized adult patients who tested positive for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) rRT-PCR assay performed on respiratory samples from March 2nd to 18th, 2020. Patients were followed up to May 1st, 2020 or death. Respiratory failure was defined as a PaO₂/FiO₂ ratio ≤ 200 mm Hg or the need for mechanical ventilation (either non-invasive positive pressure ventilation or invasive mechanical ventilation). We included 521 patients of whom 416 (81%) had abnormal Chest X-ray on admission. Median age was 64.6 ± 18.2 years. One hundred eighty-one (34.7%) developed respiratory failure after a median time from onset of symptoms of 9 days (IQR 6-11). In-hospital mortality was 23.8% (124/521). The modeling process concluded into a logistic regression multivariable analysis and a predictive score at admission. Age, peripheral pulse oximetry, lymphocyte count, lactate dehydrogenase and C-reactive protein were the selected variables. The model has a good discriminative capacity with an area under the ROC curve of 0.85 (0.82-0.88). The application of a simple and reliable score at admission seems to be a useful tool to predict respiratory failure in hospitalized COVID-19 patients.

SUBMITTER: Lalueza A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8082224 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Background: Endothelial Activation and Stress Index (EASIX) predict death in patients undergoing allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation who develop endothelial complications. Because coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients also have coagulopathy and endotheliitis, we aimed to assess whether EASIX predicts death within 28 days in hospitalized COVID-19 patients. Methods: We performed a retrospective study on COVID-19 patients from two different cohorts [derivation (n = 1,200 patients) and validation (n = 1,830 patients)]. The endpoint was death within 28 days. The main factors were EASIX [(lactate dehydrogenase * creatinine)/thrombocytes] and aEASIX-COVID (EASIX * age), which were log2-transformed for analysis. Results: Log2-EASIX and log2-aEASIX-COVID were independently associated with an increased risk of death in both cohorts (p < 0.001). Log2-aEASIX-COVID showed a good predictive performance for 28-day mortality both in the derivation cohort (area under the receiver-operating characteristic = 0.827) and in the validation cohort (area under the receiver-operating characteristic = 0.820), with better predictive performance than log2-EASIX (p < 0.001). For log2 aEASIX-COVID, patients with low/moderate risk (<6) had a 28-day mortality probability of 5.3% [95% confidence interval (95% CI) = 4-6.5%], high (6-7) of 17.2% (95% CI = 14.7-19.6%), and very high (>7) of 47.6% (95% CI = 44.2-50.9%). The cutoff of log2 aEASIX-COVID = 6 showed a positive predictive value of 31.7% and negative predictive value of 94.7%, and log2 aEASIX-COVID = 7 showed a positive predictive value of 47.6% and negative predictive value of 89.8%. Conclusion: Both EASIX and aEASIX-COVID were associated with death within 28 days in hospitalized COVID-19 patients. However, aEASIX-COVID had significantly better predictive performance than EASIX, particularly for discarding death. Thus, aEASIX-COVID could be a reliable predictor of death that could help to manage COVID-19 patients.

Project description:ObjectiveThe pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has caused devastating morbidity and mortality worldwide. In particular, thromboembolic complications have emerged as a key threat for patients with COVID-19. We assessed our experience with deep vein thrombosis (DVT) in patients with COVID-19.MethodsWe performed a retrospective analysis of all patients with COVID-19 who had undergone upper or lower extremity venous duplex ultrasonography at an academic health system in New York City from March 3, 2020 to April 12, 2020 with follow-up through May 12, 2020. A cohort of hospitalized patients without COVID-19 (non-COVID-19) who had undergone venous duplex ultrasonography from December 1, 2019 to December 31, 2019 was used for comparison. The primary outcome was DVT. The secondary outcomes included pulmonary embolism, in-hospital mortality, admission to the intensive care unit, and antithrombotic therapy. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to identify the risk factors for DVT and mortality.ResultsOf 443 patients (COVID-19, n = 188; and non-COVID-19, n = 255) who had undergone venous duplex ultrasonography, the COVID-19 cohort had had a greater incidence of DVT (31% vs 19%; P = .005) than had the non-COVID-19 cohort. The incidence of pulmonary embolism was not significantly different statistically between the COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 cohorts (8% vs 4%; P = .105). The DVT location in the COVID-19 group was more often distal (63% vs 29%; P < .001) and bilateral (15% vs 4%; P < .001). The duplex ultrasound findings had a significant impact on the antithrombotic plan; 42 patients (72%) with COVID-19 in the DVT group had their therapy escalated and 49 (38%) and 3 (2%) had their therapy escalated and deescalated in the non-DVT group, respectively (P < .001). Within the COVID-19 cohort, the D-dimer level was significantly greater in the DVT group at admission (2746 ng/mL vs 1481 ng/mL; P = .004) and at the duplex examination (6068 ng/mL vs 3049 ng/mL; P < .01). On multivariable analysis, male sex (odds ratio [OR], 2.27; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.06-4.87; P = .035), intensive care unit admission (OR, 3.42; 95% CI, 1.02-11.44; P = .046), and extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (OR, 5.5; 95% CI, 1.01-30.13; P = .049) were independently associated with DVT.ConclusionsGiven the high incidence of venous thromboembolic events in this population, we support the decision to empirically initiate therapeutic anticoagulation for patients with a low bleeding risk and severe COVID-19 infection. Duplex ultrasonography should be reserved for patients with a high clinical suspicion of venous thromboembolism for whom anticoagulation therapy could result in life-threatening consequences. Further study of patients with COVID-19 is warranted to elucidate the etiology of vascular thromboembolic events and guide the prophylactic and therapeutic interventions for these patients.

Project description:BackgroundUncertainty surrounding COVID-19 regarding rapid progression to acute respiratory distress syndrome and unusual clinical characteristics make discharge from a monitored setting challenging. A clinical risk score to predict 14-day occurrence of hypoxia, ICU admission, and death is unavailable.ObjectiveDerive and validate a risk score to predict suitability for discharge from a monitored setting among an early cohort of patients with COVID-19.DesignModel derivation and validation in a retrospective cohort. We built a manual forward stepwise logistic regression model to identify variables associated with suitability for discharge and assigned points to each variable. Event-free patients were included after at least 14 days of follow-up.ParticipantsAll adult patients with a COVID-19 diagnosis between March 1, 2020, and April 12, 2020, in 10 hospitals in Massachusetts, USA.Main measuresFourteen-day composite predicting hypoxia, ICU admission, and death. We calculated a risk score for each patient as a predictor of suitability for discharge evaluated by area under the curve.Key resultsOf 2059 patients with COVID-19, 1326 met inclusion. The 1014-patient training cohort had a mean age of 58 years, was 56% female, and 65% had at least one comorbidity. A total of 255 (25%) patients were suitable for discharge. Variables associated with suitability for discharge were age, oxygen saturation, and albumin level, yielding a risk score between 0 and 55. At a cut point of 30, the score had a sensitivity of 83% and specificity of 82%. The respective c-statistic for the derivation and validation cohorts were 0.8939 (95% CI, 0.8687 to 0.9192) and 0.8685 (95% CI, 0.8095 to 0.9275). The score performed similarly for inpatients and emergency department patients.ConclusionsA 3-item risk score for patients with COVID-19 consisting of age, oxygen saturation, and an acute phase reactant (albumin) using point of care data predicts suitability for discharge and may optimize scarce resources.

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A predictive score at admission for respiratory failure among hospitalized patients with confirmed 2019 Coronavirus Disease: a simple tool for a complex problem.

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