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Prediction of COVID-19 Waves Using Social Media and Google Search: A Case Study of the US and Canada.

ABSTRACT: The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has posed a severe threat to public health worldwide. In this study, we aimed to evaluate several digital data streams as early warning signals of COVID-19 outbreaks in Canada, the US and their provinces and states. Two types of terms including symptoms and preventive measures were used to filter Twitter and Google Trends data. We visualized and correlated the trends for each source of data against confirmed cases for all provinces and states. Subsequently, we attempted to find anomalies in indicator time-series to understand the lag between the warning signals and real-word outbreak waves. For Canada, we were able to detect a maximum of 83% of initial waves 1 week earlier using Google searches on symptoms. We divided states in the US into two categories: category I if they experienced an initial wave and category II if the states have not experienced the initial wave of the outbreak. For the first category, we found that tweets related to symptoms showed the best prediction performance by predicting 100% of first waves about 2-6 days earlier than other data streams. We were able to only detect up to 6% of second waves in category I. On the other hand, 78% of second waves in states of category II were predictable 1-2 weeks in advance. In addition, we discovered that the most important symptoms in providing early warnings are fever and cough in the US. As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to spread around the world, the work presented here is an initial effort for future COVID-19 outbreaks.

SUBMITTER: Yousefinaghani S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8085269 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundSince the beginning of the new coronavirus pandemic, there has been much information about the disease and the virus has been in the spotlight, shared and commented upon on the Internet. However, much of this information is infodemics and can interfere with the advancement of the disease and that way that populations act. Thus, Brazil is a country that requires attention, as despite the fact that in almost two years of pandemic it has shown a devastating numbers of deaths and number of cases, and generates false, distorted and malicious news about the pandemic. This work intends to understand the attitudes of the Brazilian population using infodemic queries from the Google Trends search tool and social and income variables.MethodsData from infodemic research carried out on Google Trends, between January 1, 2020 and June 30, 2021, with socioeconomic data, such as income and education, were unified in a single database: standardization and exploratory and multivalued techniques based on grouping were used in the study.ResultsIn the analysis of the search trend of infodemic terms, it is clear that the categories of Prevention and Beliefs should stand out in Brazil, where there is a diverse culture. It is followed by the COVID-19 Treatment category, with treatments that were not those recommended by the authorities. Income transfer programs and information on socioeconomic variables did not have much impact on infodemic surveys, but it was observed that states where President Bolsonaro has more supporters had researched more infodemic information.ConclusionsIn a country as geographically large as Brazil, it is important that political authorities go to great lengths to disseminate reliable information and monitor the infodemic in the media and on the internet. It was concluded that the denial of the pandemic and the influence of political leaders influenced the search for infodemic information, contributing to a disorganization in the control of the disease and prevention measures.

Project description:BackgroundWeb-based analysis of search queries has become a very useful method in various academic fields for understanding timely and regional differences in the public interest in certain terms and concepts. Particularly in health and medical research, Google Trends has been increasingly used over the last decade.ObjectiveThis study aimed to assess the search activity of pain-related parameters on Google Trends from among the most populated regions worldwide over a 3-year period from before the report of the first confirmed COVID-19 cases in these regions (January 2018) until December 2020.MethodsSearch terms from the following regions were used for the analysis: India, China, Europe, the United States, Brazil, Pakistan, and Indonesia. In total, 24 expressions of pain location were assessed. Search terms were extracted using the local language of the respective country. Python scripts were used for data mining. All statistical calculations were performed through exploratory data analysis and nonparametric Mann-Whitney U tests.ResultsAlthough the overall search activity for pain-related terms increased, apart from pain entities such as headache, chest pain, and sore throat, we observed discordant search activity. Among the most populous regions, pain-related search parameters for shoulder, abdominal, and chest pain, headache, and toothache differed significantly before and after the first officially confirmed COVID-19 cases (for all, P<.001). In addition, we observed a heterogenous, marked increase or reduction in pain-related search parameters among the most populated regions.ConclusionsAs internet searches are a surrogate for public interest, we assume that our data are indicative of an increased incidence of pain after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, as these increased incidences vary across geographical and anatomical locations, our findings could potentially facilitate the development of specific strategies to support the most affected groups.

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Prediction of COVID-19 Waves Using Social Media and Google Search: A Case Study of the US and Canada.

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