Dataset Information

Atrial fibrillation and the risk of sudden cardiac arrest in patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy - A nationwide cohort study.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM), affecting 0.2% of the population, is the leading cause of sudden cardiac arrest (SCA). Incident atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with an increased risk of SCA in general population. To determine whether AF is associated with an increased risk of SCA in patients with HCM.

Methods

This nationwide cohort study analyzed data from Registry for Catastrophic Illness, which encompassed almost 100% of the patients with HCM in Taiwan from 1996 to 2013. Follow-up and data analysis ended December 31, 2013. The main outcome was physician-adjudicated SCA, defined as death from a sudden, pulseless condition presumed due to a ventricular tachyarrhythmia. The secondary outcome was non-sudden cardiac death (NSCD), which was heart failure death, stroke death and non-HCM related death. We used Cox proportional hazards models to assess the association between AF and SCA/NSCD, adjusting for baseline demographic and cardiovascular risk factors.

Findings

A total 10,910 subjects participated in this study with mean age of 62 years. Among enrolled subjects, 1,169 (10.7%) developed AF, which was independently associated with elder age, female sex, and history of heart failure (HF) hospitalization. During follow-up (median, 8.5 years and 2th to 7th interquartile range, 3.6 to 16.5 years), 371 SCA (166 in AF and 205 in non-AF group) and 797 NSCD (417 in AF and 380 in non-AF group) events occurred. The crude incidence rates of SCA were 12.45/1000 person-years (with AF) and 3.57/1000 person-years (without AF). The crude incidence rates for NSCD were 31.29/1000 person-years (with AF) and 6.63/1000 person-years (without AF). The multivariable hazard ratios (HRs) (95% CI) of AF for SCA and NSCD were 3.633 (2.756-4.791) and 2.086 (1.799-2.418), respectively. Furthermore, among the etiologies of NSCD, subjects with AF was at most risk of stroke-related death (HR, 6.609; 95% CI, 3.794-9.725).

Interpretation

Incident AF is associated with an increased risk of SCA and NSCD in the HCM population. Early detection of AF may provide more comprehensive risk stratification of SCD in HCM population. Because of underuse of oral anticoagulants and the absence of primary prevention ICD therapy in our cohort, the application of our findings was limited for the general HCM population in the current clinical practice.

Funding

None.

SUBMITTER: Liao MT

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8102675 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundHypertrophic cardiomyopathy is the leading cause of sudden cardiac death (SCD) in children and young adults. Our objective was to develop and validate a SCD risk prediction model in pediatric hypertrophic cardiomyopathy to guide SCD prevention strategies.MethodsIn an international multicenter observational cohort study, phenotype-positive patients with isolated hypertrophic cardiomyopathy <18 years of age at diagnosis were eligible. The primary outcome variable was the time from diagnosis to a composite of SCD events at 5-year follow-up: SCD, resuscitated sudden cardiac arrest, and aborted SCD, that is, appropriate shock following primary prevention implantable cardioverter defibrillators. Competing risk models with cause-specific hazard regression were used to identify and quantify clinical and genetic factors associated with SCD. The cause-specific regression model was implemented using boosting, and tuned with 10 repeated 4-fold cross-validations. The final model was fitted using all data with the tuned hyperparameter value that maximizes the c-statistic, and its performance was characterized by using the c-statistic for competing risk models. The final model was validated in an independent external cohort (SHaRe [Sarcomeric Human Cardiomyopathy Registry], n=285).ResultsOverall, 572 patients met eligibility criteria with 2855 patient-years of follow-up. The 5-year cumulative proportion of SCD events was 9.1% (14 SCD, 25 resuscitated sudden cardiac arrests, and 14 aborted SCD). Risk predictors included age at diagnosis, documented nonsustained ventricular tachycardia, unexplained syncope, septal diameter z-score, left ventricular posterior wall diameter z score, left atrial diameter z score, peak left ventricular outflow tract gradient, and presence of a pathogenic variant. Unlike in adults, left ventricular outflow tract gradient had an inverse association, and family history of SCD had no association with SCD. Clinical and clinical/genetic models were developed to predict 5-year freedom from SCD. Both models adequately discriminated between patients with and without SCD events with a c-statistic of 0.75 and 0.76, respectively, and demonstrated good agreement between predicted and observed events in the primary and validation cohorts (validation c-statistic 0.71 and 0.72, respectively).ConclusionOur study provides a validated SCD risk prediction model with >70% prediction accuracy and incorporates risk factors that are unique to pediatric hypertrophic cardiomyopathy. An individualized risk prediction model has the potential to improve the application of clinical practice guidelines and shared decision making for implantable cardioverter defibrillator insertion. Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT0403679.