Dataset Information

Far from MCAR: Obtaining Population-level Estimates of HIV Viral Suppression.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Population-level estimates of disease prevalence and control are needed to assess prevention and treatment strategies. However, available data often suffer from differential missingness. For example, population-level HIV viral suppression is the proportion of all HIV-positive persons with suppressed viral replication. Individuals with measured HIV status, and among HIV-positive individuals those with measured viral suppression, likely differ from those without such measurements.

Methods

We discuss three sets of assumptions to identify population-level suppression in the intervention arm of the SEARCH Study (NCT01864603), a community randomized trial in rural Kenya and Uganda (2013-2017). Using data on nearly 100,000 participants, we compare estimates from (1) an unadjusted approach assuming data are missing-completely-at-random (MCAR); (2) stratification on age group, sex, and community; and (3) targeted maximum likelihood estimation to adjust for a larger set of baseline and time-updated variables.

Results

Despite high measurement coverage, estimates of population-level viral suppression varied by identification assumption. Unadjusted estimates were most optimistic: 50% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 46%, 54%) of HIV-positive persons suppressed at baseline, 80% (95% CI = 78%, 82%) at year 1, 85% (95% CI = 83%, 86%) at year 2, and 85% (95% CI = 83%, 87%) at year 3. Stratifying on baseline predictors yielded slightly lower estimates, and full adjustment reduced estimates meaningfully: 42% (95% CI = 37%, 46%) of HIV-positive persons suppressed at baseline, 71% (95% CI = 69%, 73%) at year 1, 76% (95% CI = 74%, 78%) at year 2, and 79% (95% CI = 77%, 81%) at year 3.

Conclusions

Estimation of population-level disease burden and control requires appropriate adjustment for missing data. Even in large studies with limited missingness, estimates relying on the MCAR assumption or baseline stratification should be interpreted cautiously.

SUBMITTER: Balzer LB

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8105880 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Similar Datasets

Project description:BACKGROUND:Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data are an important source of maternal, newborn, and child health as well as nutrition information for low- and middle-income countries. However, DHSs are often unavailable at the administrative unit that is most interesting or useful for program planning. In addition, the location of DHS survey clusters are geomasked within 10 km, and prior to 2009, may have crossed district boundaries. We aim to use DHS surveyed information with these geomasked coordinates to estimate district assignments for use in health program planning and evaluation. METHODS:We developed three methods to assign a district to a geomasked survey cluster in two DHS surveys from Malawi: 2000 and 2004. Method A assigns districts of origin in proportion to the likelihood that results from repeated simulated geomasking, allowing more than one possible district of origin. Method B assigns a single district of origin which contains the greatest proportion of simulated geomasked survey clusters. Method C maps the geomasked survey cluster's location to a district polygon. We used these method assignments to estimate a selection of commonly used coverage indicators for each district. We compared the district coverage estimates, confidence intervals, and concordance correlation coefficients, by each of the methods, to those which used validated district assignments in 2004, and we looked at coverage change from 2000 to 2004. RESULTS:The methods we tested each approximated the validated estimates in 2004 by confidence interval comparison and concordance correlation coefficient. Estimated agreement for method A was between .14 and .98, for method B the estimated agreement was between .97 and .99, and for method C the agreement ranged from .93 to .99 when compared with the validated district assignments. Therefore, we recommend the protocol which is the simplest to implement-method C-overlaying geomasked survey cluster within district polygon. CONCLUSIONS:Using geomasked survey clusters from DHSs to assign districts provided district level coverage rates similar to those using the validated surveyed locations. This method may be applied to data sources where survey cluster centroids are available and where district level estimates are needed for program implementation and evaluation in low- and middle-income settings. This method is of special interest to those using DHSs to study spatiotemporal trends as it allows for the utilization of historic DHS data where geomasking hinders the generation of reliable subnational estimates of health in areas smaller than the first-order administrative unit (ADM1).

Project description:Achieving the UNAIDS 95% sustained viral suppression (VS) rate requires considerable global efforts, particularly among adolescents living with HIV (ALHIV) who are often associated with high rates of virological failure (VF). In this study, we prospectively assessed the rate of VS, and the factors associated with VF in a cohort of adolescents followed up according to the WHO guidelines in Cameroon. A cross-sectional study was carried out in 2021 among adolescents (aged 10-19 years) receiving ART in the national program in Cameroon. Socio-demographic and clinical data were collected using patients' medical files and a brief interview with the participant and/or his guardian. Thereafter, a first viral load test (VL1) was performed using the ABBOTT Platform. For adolescents with VL1 > 1000 copies/ml, adherence-enhancing interventions were routinely performed each month for 3 consecutive months, after which a second viral load (VL2) was measured. Adolescents with VL2 > 1000 copies/ml were considered in VF. Overall, 280 adolescents were enrolled, of whom 89.3% (250/280) acquired HIV infection via mother-to-child transmission. The median age was 16.0 (IQR: 13.0-18.0) years and the median duration on ART was 9.8 (IQR: 5.1-12.8) years. Females and males were almost equally represented, as 52.1% (146/280) were female, while 47.9% (134/280) were males (p = 0.47). The VS rate was 88.2% (CI: 83.8-91.7%) overall; 89.0% (CI: 82.0-93.1%) and 88.7% (CI: 81.2-93.0%) in females and males, respectively. Being on second or third-line ART, self-declared suboptimal adherence, and a history of past VF were independently associated with VF. The high rate of VS we report in this study is welcome in the era of the 95/95/95 UNAIDS goals, and indicates that improving treatment outcomes in this specific and fragile population that represent adolescents in Sub-Saharan Africa is achievable. 20/10/2020 NCT04593979 ( https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04593979 ).