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Which Socio-economic Conditions Drive the Selection of Agroforestry at the Forest Frontier?

ABSTRACT: Models are essential to assess the socio-economic credentials of new agroforestry systems. In this study, we showcase robust optimisation as a tool to evaluate agroforestry's potential to meet farmers' multiple goals. Our modelling approach has three parts. First, we use a discrete land-use model to evaluate two agroforestry systems (alley cropping and silvopasture) and conventional land uses against five socio-economic objectives, focusing on the forest frontier in eastern Panama. Next, we couple the land-use model with robust optimisation, to determine the mix of land uses (farm portfolio) that minimises trade-offs between the five objectives. Here we consider uncertainty to simulate the land-use decisions of a risk-averse farmer. Finally, we assess how the type and amount of agroforestry included in the optimal land-use portfolio changes under different environmental, socio-economic and political scenarios, to explore the conditions that may make agroforestry more attractive for farmers. We identify silvopasture as a promising land use for meeting farmers' goals, especially for farms with less productive soils. The additional labour demand compared to conventional pasture, however, may prove an important barrier to adoption for farms facing acute labour shortages. The selection of agroforestry responded strongly to changes in investment costs and timber prices, suggesting that cost-sharing arrangements and tax incentives could be effective strategies to enhance adoption. We found alley cropping to be less compatible with farmers' risk aversion, but this agroforestry system may still be a desirable complement to the land-use portfolio, especially for farmers who are more profit-oriented and tolerant of risk.

SUBMITTER: Gosling E

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8106585 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundHemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) occurs widely in Northeastern China, but the mechanism and interactions of meteorological and socio-economic factors on the transmission of HFRS are still largely unknown.ObjectiveWe explored the effects of socioeconomic-environmental factors on the spatio-temporal variation of HFRS incidence from 2001 to 2019 in Northeastern China. Specifically, the relative importance and contribution rates (CR) of determinants of HFRS were identified by boosted regression tree and variance partitioning analysis, respectively. Structural equation models (SEMs) were used to explain the roles of climatic and socio-economic factors in the transmission of HFRS. And a negative binomial regression was used to identify the risk effect between monthly meteorological variables and HFRS with 0-6 months lags in Northeastern China.ResultsOver the past decades, the high-risk areas of HFRS were mainly concentrated in the northern and eastern areas of Northeastern China. Additionally, HFRS mainly presented a decreasing trend from 2001 to 2019 in most areas of Northeastern China, but slightly increased in the cities of Daqing, Songyuan, Baicheng, and Tonghua. The temporal dynamics of the incidence of HFRS were primarily explained by the variations in population density (CR = 27.30%), climate (CR = 13.30%), and economic condition(CR = 1.90%). The spatial variations of HFRS were medicated by the climate (CR = 16.95%) and population density (CR = 9.45%) and medical health care (CR = 2.25%). The SEM models indicated that humid and warm climates were conducive to the incidence and increase of HFRS, but the improvement in education and an increase in population density reduced the transmission of HFRS.ConclusionClimate and population density appeared to mediate the spatio-temporal variation of HFRS in Northeastern China. These findings may provide valuable empirical evidence for the management of HFRS in endemic areas.

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Which Socio-economic Conditions Drive the Selection of Agroforestry at the Forest Frontier?

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