National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) better predicts critical Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) illness than COVID-GRAM, a multi-centre study.
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ABSTRACT: Purpose
Clinical scores to rapidly assess the severity illness of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) could be considered of help for clinicians. Recently, a specific score (named COVID-GRAM) for severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection, based on a nationwide Chinese cohort, has been proposed. We routinely applied the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) to predict critical COVID-19. Aim of this study is to compare NEWS2 and COVID-GRAM score.Methods
We retrospectively analysed data of 121 COVID-19 patients admitted in two Clinics of Infectious Diseases in the Umbria region, Italy. The primary outcome was critical COVID-19 illness defined as admission to the intensive care unit, invasive ventilation, or death. Accuracy of the scores was evaluated with the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Differences between scores were confirmed used Hanley-McNeil test.Results
The NEWS2 AUROC curve measured 0.87 (standard error, SE 0.03; 95% CI 0.80-0.93; p < 0.0001). The COVID-GRAM score AUROC curve measured 0.77 (SE 0.04; 95% CI 0.68-0.85; p < 0.0001). Hanley-McNeil test showed that NEWS2 better predicted severe COVID-19 (Z = 2.03).Conclusions
The NEWS2 showed superior accuracy to COVID-GRAM score for prediction of critical COVID-19 illness.
SUBMITTER: De Socio GV
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8108728 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:BackgroundThe National Early Warning Score (NEWS2) is currently recommended in the UK for the risk stratification of COVID-19 patients, but little is known about its ability to detect severe cases. We aimed to evaluate NEWS2 for the prediction of severe COVID-19 outcome and identify and validate a set of blood and physiological parameters routinely collected at hospital admission to improve upon the use of NEWS2 alone for medium-term risk stratification.MethodsTraining cohorts comprised 1276 patients admitted to King's College Hospital National Health Service (NHS) Foundation Trust with COVID-19 disease from 1 March to 30 April 2020. External validation cohorts included 6237 patients from five UK NHS Trusts (Guy's and St Thomas' Hospitals, University Hospitals Southampton, University Hospitals Bristol and Weston NHS Foundation Trust, University College London Hospitals, University Hospitals Birmingham), one hospital in Norway (Oslo University Hospital), and two hospitals in Wuhan, China (Wuhan Sixth Hospital and Taikang Tongji Hospital). The outcome was severe COVID-19 disease (transfer to intensive care unit (ICU) or death) at 14 days after hospital admission. Age, physiological measures, blood biomarkers, sex, ethnicity, and comorbidities (hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular, respiratory and kidney diseases) measured at hospital admission were considered in the models.ResultsA baseline model of 'NEWS2 + age' had poor-to-moderate discrimination for severe COVID-19 infection at 14 days (area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) in training cohort = 0.700, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.680, 0.722; Brier score = 0.192, 95% CI 0.186, 0.197). A supplemented model adding eight routinely collected blood and physiological parameters (supplemental oxygen flow rate, urea, age, oxygen saturation, C-reactive protein, estimated glomerular filtration rate, neutrophil count, neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio) improved discrimination (AUC = 0.735; 95% CI 0.715, 0.757), and these improvements were replicated across seven UK and non-UK sites. However, there was evidence of miscalibration with the model tending to underestimate risks in most sites.ConclusionsNEWS2 score had poor-to-moderate discrimination for medium-term COVID-19 outcome which raises questions about its use as a screening tool at hospital admission. Risk stratification was improved by including readily available blood and physiological parameters measured at hospital admission, but there was evidence of miscalibration in external sites. This highlights the need for a better understanding of the use of early warning scores for COVID.
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Project description:BackgroundWhile several parameters have emerged as predictors of prognosis of COVID-19, a simple clinical score at baseline might help early risk stratification. We determined the ability of National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) to predict poor outcomes among adults with COVID-19.MethodsA prospective study was conducted on 399 hospitalised adults with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection between August and December 2020. Baseline NEWS2 score was determined. Primary outcome was poor outcomes defined as need for mechanical ventilation or death within 28 days. The sensitivity, specificity and Area under the curve were determined for NEWS2 scores of 5 and 6.ResultsMean age of patients was 55.5 ± 14.8 years and 275 of 399 (68.9%) were male. Overall mortality was 3.8% and 7.5% had poor outcomes. Median (interquartile range) NEWS2 score at admission was 2 (0-6). Sensitivity and specificity of NEWS 2 of 5 or more in predicting poor outcomes was 93.3% (95% CI: 76.5-98.8) and 70.7% (95% CI: 65.7-75.3) respectively [area under curve 0.88 (95% CI: 0.847-0.927)]. Age, baseline pulse rate, baseline oxygen saturation, need for supplemental oxygen and ARDS on chest X ray were independently associated with poor outcomes.ConclusionsNEWS2 score of 5 or more at admission predicts poor outcomes in patients with COVID-19 with good sensitivity and can easily be applied for risk stratification at baseline. Further studies are needed in the Indian setting to validate this simple score and recommend widespread use.
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Project description:BackgroundPatients with severe Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) will progress rapidly to acute respiratory failure or death. We aimed to develop a quantitative tool for early predicting mortality risk of patients with COVID-19.Methods301 patients with confirmed COVID-19 admitted to Main District and Tumor Center of the Union Hospital of Huazhong University of Science and Technology (Wuhan, China) between January 1, 2020 to February 15, 2020 were enrolled in this retrospective two-centers study. Data on patient demographic characteristics, laboratory findings and clinical outcomes was analyzed. A nomogram was constructed to predict the death probability of COVID-19 patients.ResultsAge, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, D-dimer and C-reactive protein obtained on admission were identified as predictors of mortality for COVID-19 patients by LASSO. The nomogram demonstrated good calibration and discrimination with the area under the curve (AUC) of 0.921 and 0.975 for the derivation and validation cohort, respectively. An integrated score (named ANDC) with its corresponding death probability was derived. Using ANDC cut-off values of 59 and 101, COVID-19 patients were classified into three subgroups. The death probability of low risk group (ANDC < 59) was less than 5%, moderate risk group (59 ≤ ANDC ≤ 101) was 5% to 50%, and high risk group (ANDC > 101) was more than 50%, respectively.ConclusionThe prognostic nomogram exhibited good discrimination power in early identification of COVID-19 patients with high mortality risk, and ANDC score may help physicians to optimize patient stratification management.
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Project description:BackgroundThere is a need for validated clinical risk scores to identify patients at risk of severe disease and to guide decision-making during the covid-19 pandemic. The National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) is widely used in emergency medicine, but so far, no studies have evaluated its use in patients with covid-19. We aimed to study the performance of NEWS2 and compare commonly used clinical risk stratification tools at admission to predict risk of severe disease and in-hospital mortality in patients with covid-19.MethodsThis was a prospective cohort study in a public non-university general hospital in the Oslo area, Norway, including a cohort of all 66 patients hospitalised with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection from the start of the pandemic; 13 who died during hospital stay and 53 who were discharged alive. Data were collected consecutively from March 9th to April 27th 2020. The main outcome was the ability of the NEWS2 score and other clinical risk scores at emergency department admission to predict severe disease and in-hospital mortality in covid-19 patients. We calculated sensitivity and specificity with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for NEWS2 scores ≥5 and ≥ 6, quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) score ≥ 2, ≥2 Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS) criteria, and CRB-65 score ≥ 2. Areas under the curve (AUCs) for the clinical risk scores were compared using DeLong's test.ResultsIn total, 66 patients (mean age 67.9 years) were included. Of these, 23% developed severe disease. In-hospital mortality was 20%. Tachypnoea, hypoxemia and confusion at admission were more common in patients developing severe disease. A NEWS2 score ≥ 6 at admission predicted severe disease with 80.0% sensitivity and 84.3% specificity (Area Under the Curve (AUC) 0.822, 95% CI 0.690-0.953). NEWS2 was superior to qSOFA score ≥ 2 (AUC 0.624, 95% CI 0.446-0.810, p < 0.05) and other clinical risk scores for this purpose.ConclusionNEWS2 score at hospital admission predicted severe disease and in-hospital mortality, and was superior to other widely used clinical risk scores in patients with covid-19.
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Project description:BACKGROUND:Rapid response teams (RRTs) respond to hospitalized patients experiencing clinical deterioration and help determine subsequent management and disposition. We sought to evaluate and compare the prognostic accuracy of the Hamilton Early Warning Score (HEWS) and the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) for prediction of in-hospital mortality following RRT activation. We secondarily evaluated a subgroup of patients with suspected infection. METHODS:We retrospectively analyzed prospectively collected data (2012-2016) of consecutive RRT patients from two hospitals. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. We calculated the number needed to examine (NNE), which indicates the number of patients that need to be evaluated in order to detect one future death. RESULTS:Five thousand four hundred ninety-one patients were included, of whom 1837 (33.5%) died in-hospital. Mean age was 67.4?years, and 51.6% were male. A HEWS above the low-risk threshold (??5) had a sensitivity of 75.9% (95% confidence interval (CI) 73.9-77.9) and specificity of 67.6% (95% CI 66.1-69.1) for mortality, with a NNE of 1.84. A NEWS2 above the low-risk threshold (??5) had a sensitivity of 84.5% (95% CI 82.8-86.2), and specificity of 49.0% (95% CI: 47.4-50.7), with a NNE of 2.20. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was 0.76 (95% CI 0.75-0.77) for HEWS and 0.72 (95% CI: 0.71-0.74) for NEWS2. Among suspected infection patients (n?=?1708), AUROC for HEWS was 0.79 (95% CI 0.76-0.81) and for NEWS2, 0.75 (95% CI 0.73-0.78). CONCLUSIONS:The HEWS has comparable clinical accuracy to NEWS2 for prediction of in-hospital mortality among RRT patients.
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Project description:BackgroundThe aim of the emergency department (ED) triage is to recognize critically ill patients and to allocate resources. No strong evidence for accuracy of the current triage instruments, especially for the older adults, exists. We evaluated the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) and a 3-level triage assessment as risk predictors for frail older adults visiting the ED.MethodsThis prospective, observational study was performed in a Finnish ED. The data were collected in a six-month period and included were ≥ 75-year-old residents with Clinical Frailty Scale score of at least four. We analyzed the predictive values of NEWS2 and the three-level triage scale for 30-day mortality, hospital admission, high dependency unit (HDU) and intensive care unit (ICU) admissions, a count of 72-h and 30-day revisits, and ED length-of-stay (LOS).ResultsA total of 1711 ED visits were included. Median for age, CFS, LOS and NEWS2 were 85 years, 6 points, 6.2 h and 1 point, respectively. 30-day mortality was 96/1711. At triage, 69, 356 and 1278 of patients were assessed as red, yellow and green, respectively. There were 1103 admissions, of them 31 to an HDU facility, none to ICU. With NEWS2 and triage score, AUCs for 30-day mortality prediction were 0.70 (0.64-0.76) and 0.62 (0.56-0.68); for hospital admission prediction 0.62 (0.60-0.65) and 0.55 (0.52-0.56), and for HDU admission 0.72 (0.61-0.83) and 0.80 (0.70-0.90), respectively. The NEWS2 divided into risk groups of low, medium and high did not predict the ED LOS (p = 0.095). There was a difference in ED LOS between the red/yellow and as red/green patient groups (p < 0.001) but not between the yellow/green groups (p = 0.59). There were 48 and 351 revisits within 72 h and 30 days, respectively. With NEWS2 AUCs for 72-h and 30-day revisit prediction were 0.48 (95% CI 0.40-0.56) and 0.47 (0.44-0.51), respectively; with triage score 0.48 (0.40-0.56) and 0.49 (0.46-0.52), respectively.ConclusionsThe NEWS2 and a local 3-level triage scale are statistically significant, but poor in accuracy, in predicting 30-day mortality, and HDU admission but not ED LOS or revisit rates for frail older adults. NEWS2 also seems to predict hospital admission.
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