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An Immune Model to Predict Prognosis of Breast Cancer Patients Receiving Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy Based on Support Vector Machine.

ABSTRACT: Tumor microenvironment has been increasingly proved to be crucial during the development of breast cancer. The theory about the conversion of cold and hot tumor attracted the attention to the influences of traditional therapeutic strategies on immune system. Various genetic models have been constructed, although the relation between immune system and local microenvironment still remains unclear. In this study, we tested and collected the immune index of 262 breast cancer patients before and after neoadjuvant chemotherapy. Five indexes were selected and analyzed to form the prediction model, including the ratio values between after and before neoadjuvant chemotherapy of CD4⁺/CD8⁺ T cell ratio; lymphosum of T, B, and natural killer (NK) cells; CD3⁺CD8⁺ cytotoxic T cell percent; CD16⁺CD56⁺ NK cell absolute value; and CD3⁺CD4⁺ helper T cell percent. Interestingly, these characters are both the ratio value of immune status after neoadjuvant chemotherapy to the baseline. Then the prediction model was constructed by support vector machine (accuracy rate = 75.71%, area under curve = 0.793). Beyond the prognostic effect and prediction significance, the study instead emphasized the importance of immune status in traditional systemic therapies. The result provided new evidence that the dynamic change of immune status during neoadjuvant chemotherapy should be paid more attention.

SUBMITTER: Wang M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8111218 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundAccurate evaluation of the response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) provides important information about systemic therapies for breast cancer, which implies pharmacological response, prognosis, and guide further therapy. Gene profiles overcome the shortcomings of the relatively limited detection indicators of the classical pathological evaluation criteria and the subjectivity of observation, but are complicated and expensive. Therefore, it is essential to develop a more accurate, repeatable, and economical evaluation approach for neoadjuvant chemotherapy responses.MethodsWe analyzed the transcriptional profiles of chemo-resistant breast cancer cell lines and tumors of chemo-resistant breast cancer patients in the GSE25066 dataset. We preliminarily screened out common significantly differentially expressed genes and constructed a NAC response risk model using LASSO regression and univariate and multivariate analyses. The differences in bioinformatic features of tumor cells, immune characteristics, and prognosis were compared between high and low-risk group. The potential drugs that could reverse chemotherapy resistance in breast cancer were screened by the CMap database.ResultsThirty-six genes were commonly up/down-regulated in both NAC chemo-resistant tumors and cells compared to the sensitive tumors and wild-type cells. Through LASSO regression, we obtained a risk model composed of 12 genes. The risk model divided patients into high and low-risk groups. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses suggested that the risk score is an independent prognostic factor for evaluating NAC response in breast cancer. Tumors in risk groups exhibited significant differences in molecular biological characteristics, tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes, and immunosuppressive molecule expression. Our results suggested that the risk score was also a good prognostic factor for breast cancer. Finally, we screened potential drugs that could reverse chemotherapy resistance in breast cancer.ConclusionA novel 12 gene-signature could be used to predict NAC response and predict prognosis in breast cancer.

Project description:ObjectiveThis study aims at investigating the potential prognostic significance of the breast immune prognostic index (BIPI) in breast cancer patients who received neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT).MethodsThe optimal cutoff value was calculated through the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC). The correlations between BIPI and clinicopathologic characteristics were determined by the chi-square test or Fisher's exact test. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate the survival probability, and the log-rank test was used to analyze the differences in the survival probability among patients. The univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression model was used to screen the independent prognostic factors. A prognostic nomogram for disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) was built on the basis of the multivariate analyses. Furthermore, the calibration curve and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to assess the predictive performance of the nomogram.ResultsAll enrolled patients were split into three subgroups based on the BIPI score. The mean DFS and OS of the BIPI score 0 group and BIPI score 1 group were significantly longer than those of the BIPI score 2 group (42.02 vs. 38.61 vs. 26.01 months, 77.61 vs. 71.83 vs. 53.15 months; p < 0.05). Univariate and multivariate analyses indicated that BIPI was an independent prognostic factor for patients' DFS and OS (DFS, hazard ratio (HR): 6.720, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.629-27.717; OS, HR: 8.006, 95% CI: 1.638-39.119). A nomogram with a C-index of 0.873 (95% CI: 0.779-0.966) and 0.801 (95% CI: 0.702-0.901) had a favorable performance for predicting DFS and OS survival rates for clinical use by combining immune scores with other clinical features. The calibration curves at 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival suggested a good consistency between the predicted and actual DFS and OS probability. The DCA demonstrated that the constructed nomogram had better clinical predictive usefulness than only BIPI in predictive clinical applications of 5-year DFS and OS prognostic assessments.ConclusionsThe patients with low BIPI score have better prognoses and longer DFS and OS. Furthermore, the BIPI-based nomogram may serve as a convenient prognostic tool for breast cancer and help in clinical decision-making.

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An Immune Model to Predict Prognosis of Breast Cancer Patients Receiving Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy Based on Support Vector Machine.

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