Dataset Information

Predicting venous thromboembolism in hospitalized trauma patients: a combination of the Caprini score and data-driven machine learning model.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a common complication of hospitalized trauma patients and has an adverse impact on patient outcomes. However, there is still a lack of appropriate tools for effectively predicting VTE for trauma patients. We try to verify the accuracy of the Caprini score for predicting VTE in trauma patients, and further improve the prediction through machine learning algorithms.

Methods

We retrospectively reviewed emergency trauma patients who were admitted to a trauma center in a tertiary hospital from September 2019 to March 2020. The data in the patient's electronic health record (EHR) and the Caprini score were extracted, combined with multiple feature screening methods and the random forest (RF) algorithm to constructs the VTE prediction model, and compares the prediction performance of (1) using only Caprini score; (2) using EHR data to build a machine learning model; (3) using EHR data and Caprini score to build a machine learning model. True Positive Rate (TPR), False Positive Rate (FPR), Area Under Curve (AUC), accuracy, and precision were reported.

Results

The Caprini score shows a good VTE prediction effect on the trauma hospitalized population when the cut-off point is 11 (TPR = 0.667, FPR = 0.227, AUC = 0.773), The best prediction model is LASSO+RF model combined with Caprini Score and other five features extracted from EHR data (TPR = 0.757, FPR = 0.290, AUC = 0.799).

Conclusion

The Caprini score has good VTE prediction performance in trauma patients, and the use of machine learning methods can further improve the prediction performance.

SUBMITTER: He L

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8111727 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:ObjectiveHospital-acquired venous thromboembolism (VTE, including pulmonary embolism [PE] and deep vein thrombosis [DVT]) is a preventable cause of hospital death. The Caprini risk assessment model (RAM) is one of the most commonly used tools to assess VTE risk. The RAM is operationalized in clinical practice by grouping several risk scores into VTE risk categories that drive decisions on prophylaxis. A correlation between increasing Caprini scores and rising VTE risk is well-established. We assessed whether the increasing VTE risk categories assigned on the basis of recommended score ranges also correlate with increasing VTE risk.MethodsWe conducted a systematic review of articles that used the Caprini RAM to assign VTE risk categories and that reported corresponding VTE rates. A Medline and EMBASE search retrieved 895 articles, of which 57 fulfilled inclusion criteria.ResultsForty-eight (84%) of the articles were cohort studies, 7 (12%) were case-control studies, and 2 (4%) were cross-sectional studies. The populations varied from postsurgical to medical patients. There was variability in the number of VTE risk categories assigned by individual studies (6 used 5 risk categories, 37 used 4, 11 used 3, and 3 used 2), and in the cutoff scores defining the risk categories (scores from 0 alone to 0-10 for the low-risk category; from ≥5 to ≥10 for high risk). The VTE rates reported for similar risk categories also varied across studies (0%-12.3% in the low-risk category; 0%-40% for high risk). The Caprini RAM is designed to assess composite VTE risk; however, two studies reported PE or DVT rates alone, and many of the other studies did not specify the types of DVTs analyzed. The Caprini RAM predicts VTE at 30 days after assessment; however, only 17 studies measured outcomes at 30 days; the remaining studies had either shorter or longer follow-ups (0-180 days).ConclusionsThe usefulness of the Caprini RAM is limited by heterogeneity in its implementation across centers. The score-derived VTE risk categorization has significant variability in the number of risk categories being used, the cutpoints used to define the risk categories, the outcome being measured, and the follow-up duration. This factor leads to similar risk categories being associated with different VTE rates, which impacts the clinical and research implications of the results. To enhance generalizability, there is a need for studies that validate the RAM in a broad population of medical and surgical patients, identify standardized risk categories, define risk of DVT and PE as distinct end points, and measure outcomes at standardized follow-up time points.

Project description:Surgical patients should receive perioperative thromboprophylaxis based on risk assessment, and the Caprini score is validated for this purpose. Whether the Padua score, originally devised for medical patients, can be useful in surgical patients remains to be fully clarified. This study aimed to evaluate perioperative thromboprophylaxis based on the Caprini or the Padua score in elective abdominal surgery. A total of 223 patients undergoing elective abdominal surgery for malignant or benign disease were prospectively evaluated. The patients were divided into two groups in which thromboprophylaxis was prescribed according to either the Caprini score (n = 122) or the Padua score (n = 101). Patients with high-risk scores in both groups received nadroparin. The alternate risk score in each group was calculated for evaluation purposes only. During a 3-month follow-up, we assessed patients for symptomatic venous thromboembolism (VTE), bleeding, or mortality. In the Caprini score group, 87 patients (71%) had a high risk for VTE (≥5 points), while 38 patients (38%) had a high risk for VTE (≥4 points) in the Padua score group; p < 0.00001. The overall correlation between the Caprini and Padua scores was moderate (r= 0.619), with 85 patients having high Caprini and discordant Padua scores. Ten patients died during follow-up (4.5%), and five developed non-fatal symptomatic VTE (2.2%). Among the five major bleeding incidents recorded (1.8%), two cases were possibly associated with pharmacological thromboprophylaxis. The incidence of adverse outcomes did not differ between the two groups. The odds ratio for adverse outcomes was significantly higher with a high Caprini or Padua risk score, malignant disease, age ≥65 years, and active smoking. We found no significant differences in adverse outcomes between abdominal surgical patients who received perioperative thromboprophylaxis based on either the Caprini or the Padua risk score. However, a discordant Padua score was noted in almost 40% of patients who had a high Caprini score, suggesting that the latter may be more sensitive than the Padua score in surgical patients.