Dataset Information

Mortality risk estimation in acute calculous cholecystitis: beyond the Tokyo Guidelines.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Acute calculous cholecystitis (ACC) is the second most frequent surgical condition in emergency departments. The recommended treatment is the early laparoscopic cholecystectomy; however, the Tokyo Guidelines (TG) advocate for different initial treatments in some subgroups of patients without a strong evidence that all patients will benefit from them. There is no clear consensus in the literature about who is the unfit patient for surgical treatment. The primary aim of the study is to identify the risk factors for mortality in ACC and compare them with Tokyo Guidelines (TG) classification.

Methods

Retrospective unicentric cohort study of patients emergently admitted with and ACC during 1 January 2011 to 31 December 2016. The study comprised 963 patients. Primary outcome was the mortality after the diagnosis. A propensity score method was used to avoid confounding factors comparing surgical treatment and non-surgical treatment.

Results

The overall mortality was 3.6%. Mortality was associated with older age (68 + IQR 27 vs. 83 + IQR 5.5; P = 0.001) and higher Charlson Comorbidity Index (3.5 + 5.3 vs. 0+2; P = 0.001). A logistic regression model isolated four mortality risk factors (ACME): chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (OR 4.66 95% CI 1.7-12.8 P = 0.001), dementia (OR 4.12; 95% CI 1.34-12.7, P = 0.001), age > 80 years (OR 1.12: 95% CI 1.02-1.21, P = 0.001) and the need of preoperative vasoactive amines (OR 9.9: 95% CI 3.5-28.3, P = 0.001) which predicted the mortality in a 92% of the patients. The receiver operating characteristic curve yielded an area of 88% significantly higher that 68% (P = 0.003) from the TG classification. When comparing subgroups selected using propensity score matching with the same morbidity and severity of ACC, mortality was higher in the non-surgical treatment group. (26.2% vs. 10.5%).

Conclusions

Mortality was higher in ACC patients treated with non-surgical treatment. ACME identifies high-risk patients. The validation to ACME with a prospective multicenter study population could allow us to create a new alternative guideline to TG for treating ACC.

Trial registration

Retrospectively registered and recorded in Clinical Trials. NCT04744441.

SUBMITTER: Gonzalez-Castillo AM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8111736 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundComplicated acute biliary calculous disease poses clinical challenges. The European Society of Trauma and Emergency Surgery (ESTES) snapshot audit of complicated biliary calculous disease aims to make novel comparisons between self-reported institutional adherence to the Tokyo guidelines (TG18) and 'real-world' contemporary practice across Europe.MethodsA preplanned analysis of a prospective observational multicentre audit that captured patients undergoing emergency admission for complicated biliary calculous disease (complicated cholecystitis, biliary pancreatitis, or choledocholithiasis with or without cholangitis) between 1 and 31 October 2018 was performed. An anonymized survey was administered to participating sites.ResultsFollowing an open call for participation, 25 centres from nine countries enrolled 338 patients. All centres completed the anonymized survey. Fifteen centres (60 per cent) self-reported that a minority of patients were treated surgically on index admission, favouring interval cholecystectomy. This was replicated in the snapshot audit, in which 152 of 338 patients (45·0 per cent) underwent index admission cholecystectomy, 17 (5·0 per cent) had interval cholecystectomy, and the remaining 169 (50·0 per cent) had not undergone surgery by the end of the 60-day follow-up. Centres that employed a dedicated acute care surgery model of care were more likely to perform index admission cholecystectomy compared with a traditional general surgery 'on call' service (57 versus 38 per cent respectively; odds ratio 2·14 (95 per cent c.i. 1·37 to 3·35), P < 0·001). Six centres (24 per cent) self-reported routinely performing blood cultures in acute cholecystitis; patient-level audit data revealed that blood cultures were done in 47 of 154 patients (30·5 per cent). No centre self-reported omitting antibiotics in the management of acute cholecystitis, and 144 of 154 (93·5 per cent) of patients in the snapshot audit received antibiotics during their index admission.ConclusionAwareness of TG18 recommendations was high, but self-reported adherence and objective snapshot audit data showed low compliance with TG18 in patients with complicated acute biliary calculous disease.