Comparative and quantitative analysis of COVID-19 epidemic interventions in Chinese provinces.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Liu H
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8117536 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:In light of the novel coronavirus's (COVID-19's) threat to public health worldwide, we sought to elucidate COVID-19's impacts on the mental health of children and adolescents in China. Through online self-report questionnaires, we aimed to discover the psychological effects of the pandemic and its associated risk factors for developing mental health symptoms in young people. We disseminated a mental health survey through online social media, WeChat, and QQ in the five Chinese provinces with the most confirmed cases of COVID-19 during the late stage of the country-wide lockdown. We used a self-made questionnaire that queried children and adolescents aged 6 to 18 on demographic information, psychological status, and other lifestyle and COVID-related variables. A total of 17,740 children and adolescents with valid survey data participated in the study. 10,022 (56.5%), 11,611 (65.5%), 10,697 (60.3%), 6868 (38.7%), and 6225 (35.1%) participants presented, respectively, more depressive, anxious, compulsive, inattentive, and sleep-related problems compared to before the outbreak of COVID-19. High school students reported a greater change in depression and anxiety than did middle school and primary school students. Despite the fact that very few children (0.1%) or their family members (0.1%) contracted the virus in this study, the psychological impact of the pandemic was clearly profound. Fathers' anxiety appeared to have the strongest influence on a children's psychological symptoms, explaining about 33% of variation in the child's overall symptoms. Other factors only explained less than 2% of the variance in symptoms once parents' anxiety was accounted for. The spread of COVID-19 significantly influenced the psychological state of children and adolescents in participants' view. It is clear that children and adolescents, particularly older adolescents, need mental health support during the pandemic. The risk factors we uncovered suggest that reducing fathers' anxiety is particularly critical to addressing young people's mental health disorders in this time.
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Project description:Purpose: The goals of this study are to compare NGS-derived transcriptome profiling (RNA-seq) of COVID-19 kidney to normal controls Methods/Results: Kidney mRNA profile of human COVID-19 tissue was generated by deep sequencing using Illumina Novaseq6000 Paired-end 150. After filtering reads mapped to contamination database, the reads that were uniquely aligned to the exon and splicing-junction segments with a maximal 2 mismatches for each transcript were then counted as expression level for corresponding transcript. Next, RNA-seq reads count data were downloaded from public resource GTEx project (https://www.gtexportal.org/home/datasets) and 12 normal kidney tissue samples were extracted as controls. The differential analysis by fold change difference was carried out to identify dysregulated genes at 1.5 fold change. The differential expressed genes were then subjected to Gene Ontology function and Pathway (KEGG, Ingenuity IPA, BIOCARTA, NABA, Panther, PID, REACTOME, Wiki-pathway) enrichment analysis by Fisher-exact test. Conclusions: RNA sequencing data revealed that biological processes from upregulated genes were enriched for cell cycle, chromosome segregation, response to wounding, humoral immune response, and blood coagulation, suggesting that cell injury/regeneration, inflammatory response, and endothelial injury were the major disease processes involved. The biological processes from downregulated genes were enriched for ion transport, metabolic processes, and oxidation, likely secondary to severe tubular cell injury. Pathway analysis from both up- and downregulated genes showed enrichment of transmembrane transport, oxidation, and blood coagulation consistent with the GO terms analysis. Upregulated genes were enriched only for the FOXM1 pathway, which was recently reported to promote tubular cell proliferation during injury repair. Additionally, genes related to the renin-angiotensin system were downregulated, but ACE2 expression did not differ from normal controls.
2021-08-09 | GSE157403 | GEO
Project description:In Italy, 128,948 confirmed cases and 15,887 deaths of people who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 were registered as of 5 April 2020. Ending the global SARS-CoV-2 pandemic requires implementation of multiple population-wide strategies, including social distancing, testing and contact tracing. We propose a new model that predicts the course of the epidemic to help plan an effective control strategy. The model considers eight stages of infection: susceptible (S), infected (I), diagnosed (D), ailing (A), recognized (R), threatened (T), healed (H) and extinct (E), collectively termed SIDARTHE. Our SIDARTHE model discriminates between infected individuals depending on whether they have been diagnosed and on the severity of their symptoms. The distinction between diagnosed and non-diagnosed individuals is important because the former are typically isolated and hence less likely to spread the infection. This delineation also helps to explain misperceptions of the case fatality rate and of the epidemic spread. We compare simulation results with real data on the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy, and we model possible scenarios of implementation of countermeasures. Our results demonstrate that restrictive social-distancing measures will need to be combined with widespread testing and contact tracing to end the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.
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Project description:COVID-19 is a constantly challenging global health issue due to its strong intensity, rapid mutation and high infectiousness. The new Delta and Omicron variants have triggered massive outbreaks worldwide. Even China, which has done a good job in outbreak prevention, is still heavily affected by the virus. The long-term fight against multiple COVID-19 outbreaks is ongoing. In this study, we propose an SEIQR model that considers the incubation period and quarantine measurement. We verified our model using actual outbreak data from four Chinese cities. Numerical simulations show that a five-day delay results in a double resurgence scale. Our model can be used as a tool to understand the spread of the virus quantitatively and provide a reference for policymaking accordingly.
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Project description:Current explosive outbreak of COVID-19 around the world is a complex spatiotemporal process with hidden interactions between viruses and humans. This study aims at clarifying the transmission patterns and the driving mechanism that contributed to the COVID-19 prevalence across the provinces of China. Thus, a new dynamical transmission model is established by an ordinary differential system. The model takes into account the hidden circulation of COVID-19 virus among/within humans, which incorporates the spatial diffusion of infection by parameterizing human mobility. Theoretical analysis indicates that the basic reproduction number is a unique epidemic threshold, which can unite infectivity in each region by human mobility and can totally determine whether COVID-19 proceeds among multiple regions. By validating the model with real epidemic data in China, it is found that (1) if without any intervention, COVID-19 would overrun China within three months, resulting in more than 1.1 billion clinical infections and 0.2 billion subclinical infections; (2) high frequency of human mobility can trigger COVID-19 diffusion across each province in China, no matter where the initial infection locates; (3) travel restrictions and other non-pharmaceutical interventions must be implemented simultaneously for disease control; and (4) infection sites in central and east (rather than west and northeast) of China would easily stimulate quick diffusion of COVID-19 in the whole country.Supplementary informationThe online version supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11071-021-07001-1.
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Project description:As of 1 May 2020, there had been 6808 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Australia. Of these, 98 had died from the disease. The epidemic had been in decline since mid-March, with 308 cases confirmed nationally since 14 April. This suggests that the collective actions of the Australian public and government authorities in response to COVID-19 were sufficiently early and assiduous to avert a public health crisis - for now. Analysing factors that contribute to individual country experiences of COVID-19, such as the intensity and timing of public health interventions, will assist in the next stage of response planning globally. We describe how the epidemic and public health response unfolded in Australia up to 13 April. We estimate that the effective reproduction number was likely below one in each Australian state since mid-March and forecast that clinical demand would remain below capacity thresholds over the forecast period (from mid-to-late April).
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Project description:Background: The infectious disease Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbroke in 2019 spread to multiple countries. The quick spread of the virus and isolation strategies may trigger psychological problems. Our aim was to explore the dynamic network structure of the psychological state before and during the epidemic. Methods: A web-based survey was conducted in two stages: the T1 stage (1 January 2019 to 31 December 2019) and the T2 stage (1 February 2020 to 8 March 2020). In both stages, the Patient Health Questionnaire-9, General Anxiety Disorder-7, and Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index were used to assess depression, anxiety, and sleep, respectively. Results: We matched the data based on IP addresses. We included 1,978, 1,547, and 2,061 individuals who completed the depression, anxiety, and sleep assessments, respectively, at both stages. During epidemics, psychomotor agitation/retardation, inability to relax, restless behavior, and the frequency of using medicine had high centrality. Meanwhile, the network structure of psychological symptoms becomes stronger than before the epidemic. Conclusion: Symptoms of psychomotor agitation/retardation, inability to relax, and restless behavior should be treated preferentially. It is necessary to provide mental health services, including timely and effective early psychological intervention. In addition, we should also pay attention to the way patients use medicines to promote sleep quality.
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Project description:Background: Several pharmacological interventions are now under investigation for the treatment of Covid-19, and the evidence is evolving rapidly. Our aim is to assess the comparative efficacy and safety of these drugs. Methods and Findings: We performed a systematic review and network meta-analysis searching Medline, Pubmed, Embase, Cochrane Covid-19 register, international trial registers, medRxiv, bioRxiv, and arXiv up to December 10, 2020. We included all randomised controlled trials (RCTs) comparing any pharmacological intervention for Covid-19 against any drugs, placebo or standard care (SC). Data extracted from published reports were assessed for risk of bias in accordance with the Cochrane tool, and using the GRADE framework. Primary outcomes were all-cause mortality, adverse events (AEs) and serious adverse events (SAEs). We estimated summary risk ratio (RR) using pairwise and network meta-analysis with random effects (Prospero, number CRD42020176914). We performed a systematic review and network meta-analysis searching Medline, Pubmed, Embase, Cochrane Covid-19 register, international trial registers, medRxiv, bioRxiv, and arXiv up to December 10, 2020. We included all randomised controlled trials (RCTs) comparing any pharmacological intervention for Covid-19 against any drugs, placebo or standard care (SC). Data extracted from published reports were assessed for risk of bias in accordance with the Cochrane tool, and using the GRADE framework. Primary outcomes were all-cause mortality, adverse events (AEs) and serious adverse events (SAEs). We estimated summary risk ratio (RR) using pairwise and network meta-analysis with random effects (Prospero, number CRD42020176914). We included 96 RCTs, comprising of 34,501 patients. The network meta-analysis showed in terms of all-cause mortality, when compared to SC or placebo, only corticosteroids significantly reduced the mortality rate (RR 0.90, 95%CI 0.83, 0.97; moderate certainty of evidence). Corticosteroids significantly reduced the mortality rate also when compared to hydroxychloroquine (RR 0.83, 95%CI 0.74, 0.94; moderate certainty of evidence). Remdesivir proved to be better in terms of SAEs when compared to SC or placebo (RR 0.75, 95%CI 0.63, 0.89; high certainty of evidence) and plasma (RR 0.57, 95%CI 0.34, 0.94; high certainty of evidence). The combination of lopinavir and ritonavir proved to reduce SAEs when compared to plasma (RR 0.49, 95%CI 0.25, 0.95; high certainty of evidence). Most of the RCTs were at unclear risk of bias (42 of 96), one third were at high risk of bias (34 of 96) and 20 were at low risk of bias. Certainty of evidence ranged from high to very low. Conclusion: At present, corticosteroids reduced all-cause mortality in patients with Covid-19, with a moderate certainty of evidence. Remdesivir appeared to be a safer option than SC or placebo, while plasma was associated with safety concerns. These preliminary evidence-based observations should guide clinical practice until more data are made public.
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