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Optimal Lockdown Policy for Vaccination during COVID-19 Pandemic.

ABSTRACT: As the COVID-19 spreads across the world, many nations impose lockdown measures at the early stage of the pandemic to prevent the spread of the disease. Controversy surrounds the lockdown as it is a choice between economic freedom and public health. The ultimate solution to a pandemic is to vaccinate a massive population to achieve herd immunity. However, the whole vaccination programme is a long and complicated process. The virus and the vaccine will persist for quite a long time. How to gradually ease the lockdown based on vaccination progress is an important issue, as both economic and epidemiological issues are involved. In this paper, we extend the classic SIR model to find optimal decision making to balance between economy and public health in the process of vaccination rollout. The model provides an approach of vaccine value estimation. Our results provide scientific suggestion for policymakers to make important decisions about when to start the lockdown and how strong it should be over the entire vaccination cycle.

SUBMITTER: Fu Y

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8119293 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Faced with the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the development of COVID-19 vaccines has been progressing at an unprecedented rate. This study aimed to evaluate the acceptance of COVID-19 vaccination in China and give suggestions for vaccination strategies and immunization programs accordingly. In March 2020, an anonymous cross-sectional survey was conducted online among Chinese adults. The questionnaire collected socio-demographic characteristics, risk perception, the impact of COVID-19, attitudes, acceptance and attribute preferences of vaccines against COVID-19 during the pandemic. Multivariate logistic regression was performed to identify the influencing factors of vaccination acceptance. Of the 2058 participants surveyed, 1879 (91.3%) stated that they would accept COVID-19 vaccination after the vaccine becomes available, among whom 980 (52.2%) wanted to get vaccinated as soon as possible, while others (47.8%) would delay the vaccination until the vaccine's safety was confirmed. Participants preferred a routine immunization schedule (49.4%) to emergency vaccination (9.0%) or either of them (41.6%). Logistic regression showed that being male, being married, perceiving a high risk of infection, being vaccinated against influenza in the past season, believing in the efficacy of COVID-19 vaccination or valuing doctor's recommendations could increase the probability of accepting COVID-19 vaccination as soon as possible, while having confirmed or suspected cases in local areas, valuing vaccination convenience or vaccine price in decision-making could hinder participants from immediate vaccination. During the pandemic period, a strong demand for and high acceptance of COVID-19 vaccination has been shown among the Chinese population, while concerns about vaccine safety may hinder the promotion of vaccine uptake. To expand vaccination coverage, immunization programs should be designed to remove barriers in terms of vaccine price and vaccination convenience, and health education and communication from authoritative sources are important ways to alleviate public concerns about vaccine safety.

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Optimal Lockdown Policy for Vaccination during COVID-19 Pandemic.

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