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Unprecedented increase of West Nile virus neuroinvasive disease, Spain, summer 2020.

ABSTRACT: Cases of West Nile neuroinvasive disease (WNND) in Spain increased in summer 2020. Here we report on this increase and the local, regional and national public health measures taken in response. We analysed data from regional surveillance networks and the National Epidemiological Surveillance Network, both for human and animal West Nile virus (WNV) infection. During the 2020 season, a total of 77 human cases of WNV infection (median age 65 years; 60% males) were detected in the south-west of Spain; 72 (94%) of these cases developed WNND, presenting as meningoencephalitis, seven of which were fatal. In the previous two decades, only six human cases of WNND were detected in Spain. Reduced activities for vector control this season, together with other factors, might have contributed to the massive increase. Public health measures including vector control, campaigns to raise awareness among physicians and the general population, and interventions to ensure the safety of donations of blood products, organs, cells and tissues were effective to reduce transmission. Going forward, maintenance of vector control activities and an update of the vector-borne diseases response plan in Spain is needed.

SUBMITTER: Garcia San Miguel Rodriguez-Alarcon L

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8120797 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundWest Nile Virus (WNV) is a mosquito-borne flavivirus that has caused ongoing seasonal epidemics in the United States since 1999. It is estimated that ≤1% of WNV-infected patients will develop neuroinvasive disease (West Nile encephalitis and/or myelitis) that can result in debilitating morbidities and long-term sequelae. It is essential to collect longitudinal information about the recovery process and to characterize predicative factors that may assist in therapeutic decision-making in the future.MethodsWe report a longitudinal study of the neurological outcomes (as measured by neurological examination, Glascow Coma Scale, and Modified Mini-Mental State Examination) for 55 subjects with WNV neuroinvasive disease (confirmed by positive CSF IgM) assessed on day 7, at discharge, and on days 14, 30, and 90. The neurological outcome measures were coma (presence and degree), global cognitive status, presence of cranial neuropathy, tremors and/or weakness.ResultsAt initial clinical presentation 93% presented with a significant neurological deficit (49% with weakness, 35% with tremor, and 16% with cranial neuropathy). The number of patients with a cognitive deficit fell from 25 at initial evaluation to 9 at their last evaluation. Cranial neuropathy was present in 9 at onset and in only 4 patients at study conclusion. Of the 19 patients who had a tremor at enrollment, 11 continued to exhibit a tremor at follow-up. Seven patients died after initial enrollment in the study, with 5 of those having presented in a coma. The factors that predict either severity or long-term recovery of neurological function include age (older individuals were weaker at follow-up examination), gender (males recovered better from coma), and presentation in a coma with cranial nerve deficits (had a poorer recovery particularly with regard to cognition).ConclusionsThis study represents one of the largest clinical investigations providing prospectively-acquired neurological outcomes data among American patients with WNV central nervous system disease. The findings show that the factors that influence prognosis from the initial presentation include age, gender, and specific neurological deficits at onset.Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT00138463 and NCT00069316.

Project description:ImportanceWest Nile virus (WNV) is the leading cause of human arboviral disease in the US, peaking during summer. The incidence of WNV, including its neuroinvasive form (NWNV), is increasing, largely due to the expanding distribution of its vector, the Culex mosquito, and climatic changes causing heavy monsoon rains. However, the distinct characteristics and outcomes of NWNV in individuals who are immunosuppressed (IS) and individuals who are not IS remain underexplored.ObjectiveTo describe and compare clinical and radiographic features, treatment responses, and outcomes of NWNV infection in individuals who are IS and those who are not IS.Design, setting, and participantsThis retrospective cohort study used data from the Mayo Clinic Hospital system collected from July 2006 to December 2021. Participants were adult patients (age ≥18 years) with established diagnosis of NWNV infection. Data were analyzed from May 12, 2020, to July 20, 2023.ExposureImmunosuppresion.Main outcomes and measuresOutcomes of interest were clinical and radiographic features and 90-day mortality among patients with and without IS.ResultsOf 115 participants with NWNV infection (mean [SD] age, 64 [16] years; 75 [66%] male) enrolled, 72 (63%) were not IS and 43 (37%) were IS. Neurologic manifestations were meningoencephalitis (98 patients [85%]), encephalitis (10 patients [9%]), and myeloradiculitis (7 patients [6%]). Patients without IS, compared with those with IS, more frequently reported headache (45 patients [63%] vs 18 patients [42%]) and myalgias (32 patients [44%] vs 9 patients [21%]). In contrast, patients with IS, compared with those without, had higher rates of altered mental status (33 patients [77%] vs 41 patients [57%]) and myoclonus (8 patients [19%] vs 8 patients [4%]). Magnetic resonance imaging revealed more frequent thalamic T2 fluid-attenuated inversion recovery hyperintensities in individuals with IS than those without (4 patients [11%] vs 0 patients). Individuals with IS had more severe disease requiring higher rates of intensive care unit admission (26 patients [61%] vs 24 patients [33%]) and mechanical ventilation (24 patients [56%] vs 22 patients [31%]). The 90-day all-cause mortality rate was higher in the patients with IS compared with patients without IS (12 patients [28%] vs 5 patients [7%]), and this difference in mortality persisted after adjusting for Glasgow Coma Scale score (adjusted hazard ratio, 2.22; 95% CI, 1.07-4.27; P = .03). Individuals with IS were more likely to receive intravenous immunoglobulin than individuals without IS (12 individuals [17%] vs 24 individuals [56%]), but its use was not associated with survival (hazard ratio, 1.24; 95% CI, 0.50-3.09; P = .64).Conclusions and relevanceIn this cohort study of individuals with NWNV infection, individuals with IS had a higher risk of disease complications and poor outcomes than individuals without IS, highlighting the need for innovative and effective therapies to improve outcomes in this high-risk population.

Project description:BackgroundWest Nile virus (WNV) is the leading cause of mosquito-borne illness in the continental USA. WNV occurrence has high spatiotemporal variation, and current approaches to targeted control of the virus are limited, making forecasting a public health priority. However, little research has been done to compare strengths and weaknesses of WNV disease forecasting approaches on the national scale. We used forecasts submitted to the 2020 WNV Forecasting Challenge, an open challenge organized by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, to assess the status of WNV neuroinvasive disease (WNND) prediction and identify avenues for improvement.MethodsWe performed a multi-model comparative assessment of probabilistic forecasts submitted by 15 teams for annual WNND cases in US counties for 2020 and assessed forecast accuracy, calibration, and discriminatory power. In the evaluation, we included forecasts produced by comparison models of varying complexity as benchmarks of forecast performance. We also used regression analysis to identify modeling approaches and contextual factors that were associated with forecast skill.ResultsSimple models based on historical WNND cases generally scored better than more complex models and combined higher discriminatory power with better calibration of uncertainty. Forecast skill improved across updated forecast submissions submitted during the 2020 season. Among models using additional data, inclusion of climate or human demographic data was associated with higher skill, while inclusion of mosquito or land use data was associated with lower skill. We also identified population size, extreme minimum winter temperature, and interannual variation in WNND cases as county-level characteristics associated with variation in forecast skill.ConclusionsHistorical WNND cases were strong predictors of future cases with minimal increase in skill achieved by models that included other factors. Although opportunities might exist to specifically improve predictions for areas with large populations and low or high winter temperatures, areas with high case-count variability are intrinsically more difficult to predict. Also, the prediction of outbreaks, which are outliers relative to typical case numbers, remains difficult. Further improvements to prediction could be obtained with improved calibration of forecast uncertainty and access to real-time data streams (e.g. current weather and preliminary human cases).

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Unprecedented increase of West Nile virus neuroinvasive disease, Spain, summer 2020.

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