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Rapid Spread of the SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern 202012/01 in Southern Italy (December 2020-March 2021).

ABSTRACT: Epidemiological and virological studies have revealed that SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOCs) are emerging globally, including in Europe. The aim of this study was to evaluate the spread of B.1.1.7-lineage SARS-CoV-2 in southern Italy from December 2020-March 2021 through the detection of the S gene target failure (SGTF), which could be considered a robust proxy of VOC B.1.1.7. SGTF was assessed on 3075 samples from week 52/2020 to week 10/2021. A subset of positive samples identified in the Apulia region during the study period was subjected to whole-genome sequencing (WGS). A descriptive and statistical analysis of the demographic and clinical characteristics of cases according to SGTF status was performed. Overall, 20.2% of samples showed SGTF; 155 strains were confirmed as VOC 202012/01 by WGS. The proportion of SGTF-positive samples rapidly increased over time, reaching 69.2% in week 10/2021. SGTF-positive cases were more likely to be symptomatic and to result in hospitalization (p < 0.0001). Despite the implementation of large-scale non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as the closure of schools and local lockdowns, a rapid spread of VOC 202012/01 was observed in southern Italy. Strengthened NPIs and rapid vaccine deployment, first among priority groups and then among the general population, are crucial both to contain the spread of VOC 202012/01 and to flatten the curve of the third wave.

SUBMITTER: Loconsole D

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8125211 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Estimating an infectious disease attack rate requires inference on the number of reported symptomatic cases of a disease, the number of unreported symptomatic cases, and the number of asymptomatic infections. Population-level immunity can then be estimated as the attack rate plus the number of vaccine recipients who had not been previously infected; this requires an estimate of the fraction of vaccines that were distributed to seropositive individuals. To estimate attack rates and population immunity in southern New England, we fit a validated dynamic epidemiological model to case, clinical, and death data streams reported by Rhode Island, Massachusetts, and Connecticut for the first 15 months of the COVID-19 pandemic, from March 1 2020 to May 31 2021. This period includes the initial spring 2020 wave, the major winter wave of 2020-2021, and the lagging wave of lineage B.1.1.7(Alpha) infections during March-April 2021. In autumn 2020, SARS-CoV-2 population immunity (equal to the attack rate at that point) in southern New England was still below 15%, setting the stage for a large winter wave. After the roll-out of vaccines in early 2021, population immunity in many states was expected to approach 70% by spring 2021, with more than half of this immune population coming from vaccinations. Our population immunity estimates for May 31 2021 are 73.4% (95% CrI: 72.9% - 74.1%) for Rhode Island, 64.1% (95% CrI: 64.0% - 64.4%) for Connecticut, and 66.3% (95% CrI: 65.9% - 66.9%) for Massachusetts, indicating that >33% of southern Englanders were still susceptible to infection when the Delta variant began spreading in July 2021. Despite high vaccine coverage in these states, population immunity in summer 2021 was lower than planned due to 34% (Rhode Island), 25% (Connecticut), and 28% (Massachusetts) of vaccine distribution going to seropositive individuals. Future emergency-setting vaccination planning will likely have to consider over-vaccination as a strategy to ensure that high levels of population immunity are reached during the course of an ongoing epidemic.

Dataset Information

Rapid Spread of the SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern 202012/01 in Southern Italy (December 2020-March 2021).

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