An interrupted time series analysis of the lockdown policies in India: a national-level analysis of COVID-19 incidence.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Thayer WM
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8135431 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:BackgroundAn estimated 1.8 billion children live in countries where COVID-19 disrupted violence prevention and response. It is important to understand how government policies to contain COVID-19 impacted children's ability to seek help, especially in contexts where there was limited formal help-seeking prior to the pandemic. We aimed to quantify how the national lockdown in Zimbabwe affected helpline calls for violence against children, estimated the number of calls that would have been received had the lockdown not occurred and described characteristics of types of calls and callers before and after the national lockdown.MethodsWe used an interrupted time series design to analyse the proportion of violence related calls (17,913 calls out of 57,050) to Childline Zimbabwe's national child helpline between 2017 to 2021. We applied autoregressive integrated moving average regression (ARIMA) models to test possible changes in call trends before and after the March 2020 lockdown and forecasted how many calls would have been received in the absence of lockdown. In addition, we examined call characteristics before and after lockdown descriptively.ResultsThe proportion of violence related calls decreased in the 90 days after the lockdown and subsequently returned to pre-COVID-19 levels. We estimate that 10.3% (95% confidence interval [CI] 6.0-14.6%) more violence related calls would have occurred in this period had there not been a lockdown. Violence was increasingly reported as occurring in children's households, with fewer reports from children and formal child protection actors.ConclusionsLockdowns dramatically change everyday life and strain populations, which is unlikely to reduce violence prevalence but may reduce help-seeking. The three months after COVID-19 lockdowns may be key time periods when help-seeking for violence decreases drastically. Policy makers should ensure that in-person and remote services support help-seeking. Interventions and campaigns may additionally want to target adult female family members in encouraging reporting of suspected violence cases when they occur within households and are perpetuated by other family members. We suggest a composite approach of scaling-up remote reporting mechanisms that are accessible and geographically well-distributed, establishing non-traditional sites for help seeking within communities and continuing limited in-person home visitation for known cases of violence.
| S-EPMC9673211 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background and aimsThe relationship between alcohol consumption and cirrhosis is well established. Policies that can influence population-level use of alcohol should, in turn, impact cirrhosis. We examined the effect of population-level alcohol control policies on cirrhosis mortality rates in Lithuania - a high-income European Union country with high levels of alcohol consumption.MethodsAge-standardized, monthly liver mortality data (deaths per 100,000 adults, aged 15+) from Lithuania were analysed from 2001 to 2018 (n = 216 months) while controlling for economic confounders (gross domestic product and inflation). An interrupted time-series analysis was conducted to estimate the effect of three alcohol control policies implemented in 2008, 2017 and 2018 and the number of cirrhosis deaths averted.ResultsThere was a significant effect of the 2008 (P < .0001) and 2017 (P = .0003) alcohol control policies but a null effect of the 2018 policy (P = .40). Following the 2008 policy, the cirrhosis mortality rate dropped from 4.93 to 3.41 (95% CI: 3.02-3.80) deaths per 100,000 adults, which equated to 493 deaths averted. Further, we found that following the 2017 policy, the mortality rate dropped from 2.85 to 2.01 (95% CI: 1.50-2.52) deaths per 100,000 adults, corresponding to 245 deaths averted.ConclusionsOur findings support the hypothesis that alcohol control policies can have a significant, immediate effect on cirrhosis mortality. These policy measures are cost-effective and aid in reducing the burden of liver disease.
| S-EPMC8930681 | biostudies-literature
Project description:This study evaluated a special form of lockdown that was applied in Jordan: one day of lockdown every week, which was applied on consecutive weekend days (i.e., Friday in Jordan, for 24 hours). We tried to assess the impact of this form of lockdown on the daily number of positive coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases, using interrupted time series analysis. We included the period of March 5 to April 17, 2021, as the period affected by the Friday lockdown, which was applied to seven consecutive Fridays with a total of 168 hours. We used R version 4.0.5 (R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria) for our analysis. We used Poisson model regression analysis, where the number of positive cases was used as the outcome variable, while the total number of tests, time, and lockdown were used as the predictor variables. We further performed quasi-Poisson regression analysis to confirm the first model. On Poisson model regression analysis, it was found that there was an evidence of an increase in the number of positive COVID-19 cases following the intervention of Friday lockdown, with a p value of <0.001 (relative risk, 1.569; 95% confidence interval, 1.549-1.590). On using quasi-Poisson regression, similar results were found with a wider confidence interval. We concluded that a single weekend day lockdown led to an increase in the number of daily cases of COVID-19. Therefore, we recommend authorities to adhere to evidence-based measures or to the WHO recommendations in the dealing with this pandemic.
| S-EPMC8449516 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic and ensuing national lockdowns have dramatically changed the healthcare landscape. The pandemic's impact on people with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) remains poorly understood. We hypothesised that the UK-wide lockdown restrictions were associated with reductions in severe COPD exacerbations. We provide the first national level analyses of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and first lockdown on severe COPD exacerbations resulting in emergency hospital admissions and/or leading to death as well as those recorded in primary care or emergency departments.MethodsUsing data from Public Health Scotland and the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank in Wales, we accessed weekly counts of emergency hospital admissions and deaths due to COPD over the first 30 weeks of 2020 and compared these to the national averages over the preceding 5 years. For both Scotland and Wales, we undertook interrupted time-series analyses to model the impact of instigating lockdown on these outcomes. Using fixed-effect meta-analysis, we derived pooled estimates of the overall changes in trends across the two nations.ResultsLockdown was associated with 48% pooled reduction in emergency admissions for COPD in both countries (incidence rate ratio, IRR 0.52, 95% CI 0.46 to 0.58), relative to the 5-year averages. There was no statistically significant change in deaths due to COPD (pooled IRR 1.08, 95% CI 0.87 to 1.33). In Wales, lockdown was associated with 39% reduction in primary care consultations for acute exacerbation of COPD (IRR 0.61, 95% CI 0.52 to 0.71) and 46% reduction in COPD-related emergency department attendances (IRR 0.54, 95% CI 0.36 to 0.81).ConclusionsThe UK-wide lockdown was associated with the most substantial reductions in COPD exacerbations ever seen across Scotland and Wales, with no corresponding increase in COPD deaths. This may have resulted from reduced transmission of respiratory infections, reduced exposure to outdoor air pollution and/or improved COPD self-management.
| S-EPMC8126470 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundAntibiotic prophylaxis given before invasive dental procedures in patients at risk of developing infective endocarditis has historically been the focus of infective endocarditis prevention. Recent changes in antibiotic prophylaxis guidelines in the USA and Europe have substantially reduced the number of patients for whom antibiotic prophylaxis is recommended. In the UK, guidelines from the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) recommended complete cessation of antibiotic prophylaxis for prevention of infective endocarditis in March, 2008. We aimed to investigate changes in the prescribing of antibiotic prophylaxis and the incidence of infective endocarditis since the introduction of these guidelines.MethodsWe did a retrospective secular trend study, analysed as an interrupted time series, to investigate the effect of antibiotic prophylaxis versus no prophylaxis on the incidence of infective endocarditis in England. We analysed data for the prescription of antibiotic prophylaxis from Jan 1, 2004, to March 31, 2013, and hospital discharge episode statistics for patients with a primary diagnosis of infective endocarditis from Jan 1, 2000, to March 31, 2013. We compared the incidence of infective endocarditis before and after the introduction of the NICE guidelines using segmented regression analysis of the interrupted time series.FindingsPrescriptions of antibiotic prophylaxis for the prevention of infective endocarditis fell substantially after introduction of the NICE guidance (mean 10,900 prescriptions per month [Jan 1, 2004, to March 31, 2008] vs 2236 prescriptions per month [April 1, 2008, to March 31, 2013], p<0·0001). Starting in March, 2008, the number of cases of infective endocarditis increased significantly above the projected historical trend, by 0·11 cases per 10 million people per month (95% CI 0·05-0·16, p<0·0001). By March, 2013, 35 more cases per month were reported than would have been expected had the previous trend continued. This increase in the incidence of infective endocarditis was significant for both individuals at high risk of infective endocarditis and those at lower risk.InterpretationAlthough our data do not establish a causal association, prescriptions of antibiotic prophylaxis have fallen substantially and the incidence of infective endocarditis has increased significantly in England since introduction of the 2008 NICE guidelines.FundingHeart Research UK, Simplyhealth, and US National Institutes of Health.
| S-EPMC5599216 | biostudies-literature
Project description:OBJECTIVE:To assess the impact of the Swedish health authority recommendation against the use of knee arthroscopy in patients aged ?40 years with knee osteoarthritis (OA). DESIGN:Interrupted time series analysis. SETTING:Public health care in Skåne region. PARTICIPANTS:Patients aged ?40 years who underwent knee arthroscopy from January 2010 to December 2015. INTERVENTION(S):National guideline's recommendation against the use of knee arthroscopy in patients with knee OA. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S):1) proportion of patients aged ?40 years with a main diagnosis of Knee OA and/or degenerative meniscal lesions (DML) who underwent knee arthroscopy, and 2) overall knee arthroscopy rate per 100,000 Skåne population aged ?40 years. RESULTS:A total of 6,155 knee arthroscopy were performed among people aged ?40 years during study period. Of 42,044 patients with Knee OA/DML, 3,728 had knee arthroscopy. The recommendation was associated with reductions in the use of knee arthroscopy and two years after the recommendation, there was a reduction of 28.6% (95% CI: 9.3, 47.8) and 34.7% (23.9, 45.4) in proportion of Knee OA/DML patients with knee arthroscopy and the overall knee arthroscopy rate, respectively, relative to that expected if pre-recommendation trend continued. Our sensitivity analysis showed that the use of total knee replacement was stable over the study period. CONCLUSION:The national recommendation was associated with reduction in use of knee arthroscopy in public health care in southern Sweden. However, still 4.5% of these patients underwent knee arthroscopy in 2015 implying that more efforts are required to achieve the recommended target.
| S-EPMC7076349 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveThe objective of this study was to examine the impact of medicines price regulation (Drug Price Control Order, 2013) on the market share of atorvastatin in the Indian retail market for statins.SettingAll Indian states, January 2012 to December 2015.DesignQuasi-experimental-interrupted time series analysis.DataPharmaceutical sales audit data set from IMS Health (now IQVIA) for the 48-month period from January 2012 to December 2015.Outcome measureShare of atorvastatin (in percentage) in the Indian market for statins in terms of sales volumes.ResultsWe observed that the price regulation notification (Drug Price Control Orders, 2013) was associated with 0.12% (p<0.001; 95% CI 0.06 to 0.18) increase in the trend of the average monthly market share of atorvastatin (5 mg and 10 mg). After 31 months of price ceilings notification, the average market share of atorvastatin was 3.41% higher than would have been expected had the price ceilings not been notified. In sensitivity analysis, with a control, our findings remain robust, we observed a 0.16% (p<0.001; 95% CI 0.08 to 0.24) rise in the trend of average monthly market share of atorvastatin (5 mg and 10 mg) as compared with the change in the control.ConclusionsPrice control as a public intervention did improve the relative sales of atorvastatin in the statin market in India.
| S-EPMC6347882 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundInternationally, smoking prevalence among people in prison custody (ie, people on remand awaiting trial, awaiting sentencing, or serving a custodial sentence) is high. In Scotland, all prisons implemented a comprehensive smoke-free policy in 2018 after a 16-month anticipatory period. In this study, we aimed to use data on medication dispensing to assess the impact of this policy on cessation support, health outcomes, and potential unintended consequences among people in prison custody.MethodsWe did an interrupted time-series analysis using dispensing data for 44 660 individuals incarcerated in 14 closed prisons in Scotland between March 30, 2014, and Nov 30, 2019. We estimated changes in dispensing rates associated with the policy announcement (July 17, 2017) and full implementation (Nov 30, 2018) using seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average models. Medication categories of primary interest were treatments for nicotine dependence (as an indicator of smoking cessation or abstinence attempts), acute smoking-associated illnesses, and mental health (antidepressants). We included antiepileptic medications as a negative control.FindingsA 44% step increase in dispensing of treatments for nicotine dependence was observed at implementation (2250 items per 1000 people in custody per fortnight, 95% CI 1875 to 2624) due primarily to a 42% increase in dispensing of nicotine replacement therapy (2109 items per 1000 people in custody per fortnight, 1701 to 2516). A 9% step decrease in dispensing for smoking-related illnesses was observed at implementation, largely accounted for by respiratory medications (-646 items per 1000 people in custody per fortnight, -1111 to -181). No changes associated with announcement or implementation were observed for mental health dispensing or antiepileptic medications (control).InterpretationSmoke-free prison policies might improve respiratory health among people in custody and encourage smoking abstinence or cessation without apparent short-term adverse effects on mental health dispensing.FundingNational Institute of Health Research Public Health Research programme, Scottish Government Chief Scientist Office, and UK Medical Research Council.
| S-EPMC8554387 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundWe assessed the impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic in India on the consumption of antibiotics and hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) in the private sector in 2020 compared to the expected level of use had the epidemic not occurred.Methods and findingsWe performed interrupted time series (ITS) analyses of sales volumes reported in standard units (i.e., doses), collected at regular monthly intervals from January 2018 to December 2020 and obtained from IQVIA, India. As children are less prone to develop symptomatic severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection, we hypothesized a predominant increase in non-child-appropriate formulation (non-CAF) sales. COVID-19-attributable changes in the level and trend of monthly sales of total antibiotics, azithromycin, and HCQ were estimated, accounting for seasonality and lockdown period where appropriate. A total of 16,290 million doses of antibiotics were sold in India in 2020, which is slightly less than the amount in 2018 and 2019. However, the proportion of non-CAF antibiotics increased from 72.5% (95% CI: 71.8% to 73.1%) in 2019 to 76.8% (95% CI: 76.2% to 77.5%) in 2020. Our ITS analyses estimated that COVID-19 likely contributed to 216.4 million (95% CI: 68.0 to 364.8 million; P = 0.008) excess doses of non-CAF antibiotics and 38.0 million (95% CI: 26.4 to 49.2 million; P < 0.001) excess doses of non-CAF azithromycin (equivalent to a minimum of 6.2 million azithromycin treatment courses) between June and September 2020, i.e., until the peak of the first epidemic wave, after which a negative change in trend was identified. In March 2020, we estimated a COVID-19-attributable change in level of +11.1 million doses (95% CI: 9.2 to 13.0 million; P < 0.001) for HCQ sales, whereas a weak negative change in monthly trend was found for this drug. Study limitations include the lack of coverage of the public healthcare sector, the inability to distinguish antibiotic and HCQ sales in inpatient versus outpatient care, and the suboptimal number of pre- and post-epidemic data points, which could have prevented an accurate adjustment for seasonal trends despite the robustness of our statistical approaches.ConclusionsA significant increase in non-CAF antibiotic sales, and particularly azithromycin, occurred during the peak phase of the first COVID-19 epidemic wave in India, indicating the need for urgent antibiotic stewardship measures.
| S-EPMC8248656 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectivesWe evaluated whether implementation of lockdown orders in South Africa affected ambulatory clinic visitation in rural Kwa-Zulu Natal (KZN).DesignObservational cohort SETTING: Data were analysed from 11 primary healthcare clinics in northern KZN.ParticipantsA total of 46 523 individuals made 89 476 clinic visits during the observation period.Exposure of interestWe conducted an interrupted time series analysis to estimate changes in clinic visitation with a focus on transitions from the prelockdown to the level 5, 4 and 3 lockdown periods.Outcome measuresDaily clinic visitation at ambulatory clinics. In stratified analyses, we assessed visitation for the following subcategories: child health, perinatal care and family planning, HIV services, non-communicable diseases and by age and sex strata.ResultsWe found no change in total clinic visits/clinic/day at the time of implementation of the level 5 lockdown (change from 90.3 to 84.6 mean visits/clinic/day, 95% CI -16.5 to 3.1), or at the transitions to less stringent level 4 and 3 lockdown levels. We did detect a >50% reduction in child healthcare visits at the start of the level 5 lockdown from 11.9 to 4.7 visits/day (-7.1 visits/clinic/day, 95% CI -8.9 to 5.3), both for children aged <1 year and 1-5 years, with a gradual return to prelockdown within 3 months after the first lockdown measure. In contrast, we found no drop in clinic visitation in adults at the start of the level 5 lockdown, or related to HIV care (from 37.5 to 45.6, 8.0 visits/clinic/day, 95% CI 2.1 to 13.8).ConclusionsIn rural KZN, we identified a significant, although temporary, reduction in child healthcare visitation but general resilience of adult ambulatory care provision during the first 4 months of the lockdown. Future work should explore the impacts of the circulating epidemic on primary care provision and long-term impacts of reduced child visitation on outcomes in the region.
| S-EPMC7536636 | biostudies-literature