Computational modeling identifies embolic stroke of undetermined source patients with potential arrhythmic substrate.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Bifulco SF
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8143793 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Background We aimed to assess the prevalence and degree of overlap of potential embolic sources (PES) in patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS). Methods and Results In a pooled data set derived from 3 prospective stroke registries, patients were categorized in ≥1 groups according to the PES that was/were identified. We categorized PES as follows: atrial cardiopathy, atrial fibrillation diagnosed during follow-up, arterial disease, left ventricular disease, cardiac valvular disease, patent foramen ovale, and cancer. In 800 patients with ESUS (43.1% women; median age, 67.0 years), 3 most prevalent PES were left ventricular disease, arterial disease, and atrial cardiopathy, which were present in 54.4%, 48.5%, and 45.0% of patients, respectively. Most patients (65.5%) had >1 PES, whereas only 29.7% and 4.8% of patients had a single or no PES, respectively. In 31.1% of patients, there were ≥3 PES present. On average, each patient had 2 PES (median, 2). During a median follow-up of 3.7 years, stroke recurrence occurred in 101 (12.6%) of patients (23.3 recurrences per 100 patient-years). In multivariate analysis, the risk of stroke recurrence was higher in the atrial fibrillation group compared with other PES, but not statistically different between patients with 0 to 1, 2, or ≥3 PES. Conclusions There is major overlap of PES in patients with ESUS. This may possibly explain the negative results of the recent large randomized controlled trials of secondary prevention in patients with ESUS and offer a rationale for a randomized controlled trial of combination of anticoagulation and aspirin for the prevention of stroke recurrence in patients with ESUS. Clinical Trial Registration URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT02766205.
| S-EPMC6761628 | biostudies-literature
Project description: Not available
| S-EPMC8189862 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background and purposeOne-fifth of ischemic strokes are embolic strokes of undetermined source (ESUS). Their theoretical causes can be classified as cardioembolic versus noncardioembolic. This distinction has important implications, but the categories' proportions are unknown.MethodsUsing data from the Cornell Acute Stroke Academic Registry, we trained a machine-learning algorithm to distinguish cardioembolic versus non-cardioembolic strokes, then applied the algorithm to ESUS cases to determine the predicted proportion with an occult cardioembolic source. A panel of neurologists adjudicated stroke etiologies using standard criteria. We trained a machine learning classifier using data on demographics, comorbidities, vitals, laboratory results, and echocardiograms. An ensemble predictive method including L1 regularization, gradient-boosted decision tree ensemble (XGBoost), random forests, and multivariate adaptive splines was used. Random search and cross-validation were used to tune hyperparameters. Model performance was assessed using cross-validation among cases of known etiology. We applied the final algorithm to an independent set of ESUS cases to determine the predicted mechanism (cardioembolic or not). To assess our classifier's validity, we correlated the predicted probability of a cardioembolic source with the eventual post-ESUS diagnosis of atrial fibrillation.ResultsAmong 1083 strokes with known etiologies, our classifier distinguished cardioembolic versus noncardioembolic cases with excellent accuracy (area under the curve, 0.85). Applied to 580 ESUS cases, the classifier predicted that 44% (95% credibility interval, 39%-49%) resulted from cardiac embolism. Individual ESUS patients' predicted likelihood of cardiac embolism was associated with eventual atrial fibrillation detection (OR per 10% increase, 1.27 [95% CI, 1.03-1.57]; c-statistic, 0.68 [95% CI, 0.58-0.78]). ESUS patients with high predicted probability of cardiac embolism were older and had more coronary and peripheral vascular disease, lower ejection fractions, larger left atria, lower blood pressures, and higher creatinine levels.ConclusionsA machine learning estimator that distinguished known cardioembolic versus noncardioembolic strokes indirectly estimated that 44% of ESUS cases were cardioembolic.
| S-EPMC8034802 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundFrom a therapeutic viewpoint, it is important to differentiate the underlying causes of embolism in patients with cryptogenic stroke, such as aortic arch atheroma, patent foramen ovale, and paroxysmal atrial fibrillation. We investigated the clinical and radiological characteristics of these 3 common causes of cryptogenic embolism to develop models for decision making in etiologic workups.Methods and resultsA total of 321 consecutive patients with acute infarcts from cryptogenic embolism were included. Patients were divided into 3 groups-aortic arch atheroma (n=40), patent foramen ovale (n=153), and paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (n=128)-based on extensive cardiologic workups. We used a multinomial logistic regression analysis to detect the clinical and diffusion-weighted imaging factors associated with the probability of aortic arch atheroma, patent foramen ovale, and paroxysmal atrial fibrillation. Clinical and radiological features differed among the groups. The patent foramen ovale group had a healthy vascular risk factor profile and showed posterior circulation involvement compared with other groups (P<0.01). In contrast, paroxysmal atrial fibrillation-related strokes had higher initial National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) scores and larger lesions than the other groups (P<0.001). The aortic arch atheroma group had clinical features similar to those of the paroxysmal atrial fibrillation group but showed small lesions scattered in multiple vascular territories (P<0.001). Multivariate regression analysis revealed that age, initial NIHSS score, lesion size (≥20 mm), multiple (≥3) lesions, and involvement of posterior circulation or multiple vascular territories differentiated the 3 groups (pseudo, R(2)=0.656). The prediction ability of this model was validated in the external validation cohort (n=117, area under the curve 0.78).ConclusionsOur data indicate that patients with cryptogenic embolic stroke show distinct clinical and radiological features depending on the underlying causes.
| S-EPMC4943271 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Cryptogenic stroke (CS) and embolic stroke of unknown source (ESUS) represent a major challenge to healthcare systems worldwide. Atrial fibrillation (AF) is commonly found after CS or ESUS. Independent of the mechanism of the index CS or ESUS, detection of AF in these patients offers the opportunity to reduce the risk of stroke recurrence by prescribing an anticoagulant instead of aspirin. The detection of AF may be pursued with different monitoring strategies. Comparison of monitoring strategies should take into account that AF detection rates reported in published studies, and then pooled in meta-analyses, are not only a function of the monitoring strategy itself, but also depend on patient-related, device-related, and study design-related factors. Once AF is found, the decision to anticoagulate a patient should be made on the basis of AF burden and the baseline risk of the patient. Empirical anticoagulation in patients with ESUS and no evidence of AF is an intriguing but still-unproven strategy and therefore should not be adopted outside of randomized clinical trials.
| S-EPMC6490022 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectivePrevention of recurrent stroke in patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS) is challenging. The advent of safer anticoagulation in the form of direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) has prompted exploration of prophylactic anticoagulation for all ESUS patients, rather than anticoagulating just those with documented atrial fibrillation (AF). However, recent trials have failed to demonstrate a clinical benefit, while observing increased bleeding. We modeled the economic impact of anticoagulating ESUS patients without documented AF across multiple geographies.MethodsCRYSTAL-AF trial data were used to assess ischaemic stroke event rates in ESUS patients confirmed AF-free after long-term monitoring. Anticipated bleeding event rates (including both minor and major bleeds) with aspirin, dabigatran 150 mg, and rivaroxaban 20 mg were sourced from published meta-analyses, whilst a 30% ischaemic stroke reduction for both DOACs was assumed. Cost data for clinical events and pharmaceuticals were collected from the local payer perspective.ResultsCompared with aspirin, dabigatran and rivaroxaban resulted in 17.9 and 29.9 additional bleeding events per 100 patients over a patient's lifetime, respectively. Despite incorporating into our model the proposed 30% reduction in ischaemic stroke risk, both DOACs were cost-additive over patient lifetime, as the costs of bleeding events and pharmaceuticals outweighed cost savings associated with the reduction in ischaemic strokes. DOACs added £5953-£7018 per patient (UK), €6683-€7368 (Netherlands), €4933-€9378 (Spain), AUD$5353-6539 (Australia) and $26,768-$32,259 (US) of payer cost depending on the agent prescribed. Additionally, in the U.S. patient pharmacy co-payments ranged from $2468-$12,844 depending on agent and patient plan. In all settings, cost-savings could not be demonstrated even when the modelling assumed 100% protection from recurrent ischaemic strokes, due to the very low underlying risk of recurrent ischaemic stroke in this population (1.27 per 100 patient-years).ConclusionsAnticoagulation of non-AF patients may cause excess bleeds and add substantial costs for uncertain benefits, suggesting a personalised approach to anticoagulation in ESUS patients.
| S-EPMC8015049 | biostudies-literature
Project description: Not available
| S-EPMC8552842 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveTo investigate whether the correlation of age and sex with the risk of recurrence and death seen in patients with previous ischemic stroke is also evident in patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS).MethodsWe pooled datasets of 11 stroke registries from Europe and America. ESUS was defined according to the Cryptogenic Stroke/ESUS International Working Group. We performed Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier product limit analyses to investigate whether age (<60, 60-80, >80 years) and sex were independently associated with the risk for ischemic stroke/TIA recurrence or death.ResultsIschemic stroke/TIA recurrences and deaths per 100 patient-years were 2.46 and 1.01 in patients <60 years old, 5.76 and 5.23 in patients 60 to 80 years old, 7.88 and 11.58 in those >80 years old, 3.53 and 3.48 in women, and 4.49 and 3.98 in men, respectively. Female sex was not associated with increased risk for recurrent ischemic stroke/TIA (hazard ratio [HR] 1.15, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.84-1.58) or death (HR 1.35, 95% CI 0.97-1.86). Compared with the group <60 years old, the 60- to 80- and >80-year groups had higher 10-year cumulative probability of recurrent ischemic stroke/TIA (14.0%, 47.9%, and 37.0%, respectively, p < 0.001) and death (6.4%, 40.6%, and 100%, respectively, p < 0.001) and higher risk for recurrent ischemic stroke/TIA (HR 1.90, 95% CI 1.21-2.98 and HR 2.71, 95% CI 1.57-4.70, respectively) and death (HR 4.43, 95% CI 2.32-8.44 and HR 8.01, 95% CI 3.98-16.10, respectively).ConclusionsAge, but not sex, is a strong predictor of stroke recurrence and death in ESUS. The risk is ≈3- and 8-fold higher in patients >80 years compared with those <60 years of age, respectively. The age distribution in the ongoing ESUS trials may potentially influence their power to detect a significant treatment association.
| S-EPMC5562957 | biostudies-literature
Project description:PurposeThe etiology of an ischemic stroke remains undetermined in 20-35% of cases and many patients do not have any of the conventional risk factors. Increased visceral adipose tissue (VAT) is a suggested new risk factor for both carotid artery atherosclerosis (CAA) and atrial fibrillation (AF), but its role in the remaining stroke population is unknown. We assessed the amount of VAT in patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS) after excluding major-risk cardioembolic sources, occlusive atherosclerosis, and lacunar stroke.MethodsAltogether 58 patients (mean age 57.7 ± 10.2 years, 44 men) with ischemic stroke of unknown etiology but without CAA, known AF or small vessel disease underwent computed tomography angiography and assessment of VAT. For comparison VAT values from three different reference populations were used. Conventional risk factors (smoking, hypertension, diabetes, increased total and LDL-cholesterol, decreased HDL-cholesterol) were also registered.ResultsMean VAT area was significantly higher in stroke patients (205 ± 103 cm2 for men and 168 ± 99 cm2 for women) compared to all reference populations (P < 0.01). 50% of male and 57% of female patients had an increased VAT area. In male patients, VAT was significantly higher despite similar body mass index (BMI). Increased VAT was more common than any of the conventional risk factors.ConclusionIncreased VAT was found in over half of our patients with ESUS suggesting it may have a role in the pathogenesis of thromboembolism in this selected group of patients.
| S-EPMC4354901 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background We sought to determine recurrent stroke predictors among patients with embolic strokes of undetermined source (ESUS). Methods and Results We applied Cox proportional hazards models to identify clinical features associated with recurrent stroke among participants enrolled in RE-SPECT ESUS (Randomized, Double-Blind, Evaluation in Secondary Stroke Prevention Comparing the Efficacy and Safety of the Oral Thrombin Inhibitor Dabigatran Etexilate Versus Acetylsalicylic Acid in Patients With Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source) trial, an international clinical trial evaluating dabigatran versus aspirin for patients with ESUS. During a median follow-up of 19 months, 384 of 5390 participants had recurrent stroke (annual rate, 4.5%). Multivariable models revealed that stroke or transient ischemic attack before the index event (hazard ratio [HR], 2.27 [95% CI, 1.83-2.82]), creatinine clearance <50 mL/min (HR, 1.69 [95% CI, 1.23-2.32]), male sex (HR, 1.60 [95% CI, 1.27-2.02]), and CHA2DS2-VASc ≥4 (HR, 1.55 [95% CI, 1.15-2.08] and HR, 1.66 [95% CI, 1.21-2.26] for scores of 4 and ≥5, respectively) versus CHA2DS2-VASc of 2 to 3, were independent predictors for recurrent stroke. Conclusions In RE-SPECT ESUS trial, expected risk factors previously linked to other common stroke causes were associated with stroke recurrence. These data help define high-risk groups for subsequent stroke that may be useful for clinicians and for researchers designing trials among patients with ESUS. Registration URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT02239120.
| S-EPMC9238731 | biostudies-literature