A validated model for predicting live birth after embryo transfer.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Awadalla MS
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8144418 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:BackgroundStudy objectives included the development of a practical nomogram for predicting live birth following frozen-thawed embryo transfers in ovulatory women.MethodsTotally, 2884 patients with regular menstrual cycles in our center were retrospectively enrolled. In an 8:2 ratio, we randomly assigned patients to training and validation cohorts. Then we identified risk factors by multivariate logistic regression and constructed nomogram. Finally, receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, calibration curve and decision curve analysis were performed to assess the calibration and discriminative ability of the nomogram.ResultsWe identified five variables which were related to live birth, including age, anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH), protocol of frozen-thawed embryo transfer (FET), stage of embryos and amount of high-quality embryos. We then constructed nomograms that predict the probabilities of live birth by using those five parameters. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis (ROC) showed that the area under the curve (AUC) for live birth was 0.666 (95% CI: 0.644-0.688) in the training cohort. The AUC in the subsequent validation cohorts was 0.669 (95% CI, 0.625-0.713). The clinical practicability of this nomogram was demonstrated through calibration curve analysis and decision curve analysis.ConclusionsOur nomogram provides a visual and simple tool in predicting live birth in ovulatory women who received FET. It could also provide advice and guidance for physicians and patients on decision-making during the FET procedure.
| S-EPMC11348591 | biostudies-literature
Project description:PurposeMosaicism is a prevalent characteristic of human preimplantation embryos. This retrospective cohort study aimed to investigate pregnancy outcomes after transfer of mosaic or euploid embryos.MethodsThe embryos, which had been transferred as "euploidy," were processed using array-based comparative genomic hybridization (aCGH). The original aCGH charts of the transferred embryos were reanalyzed. Mosaic and control euploid embryos were defined according to log2 ratio calls.ResultsOverall, 102 embryos were determined to be mosaic, of which 101 were estimated to harbor no more than 50% aneuploid mosaicism. Additionally, 268 euploid embryos were matched as controls. The rates of live birth (46.6% vs. 59.1%, odds ratio (OR) 0.60, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.38-0.95), and biochemical pregnancy (65.7% vs. 76.1%, OR 0.60, 95% CI 0.37-0.99) per transfer cycle were significantly lower after mosaic embryo transfer than after euploid embryo transfer. The rates of clinical pregnancy and pregnancy loss and the risks of obstetric outcomes did not differ significantly between the two groups.ConclusionsCompared with euploid embryo transfer, mosaic embryo transfer is associated with a lower rate of live birth, which is mainly attributed to a decreased rate of conception. However, as mosaic embryo transfer yielded a live birth rate of 46.6%, patients without euploid embryos could be counseled regarding this alternative option.
| S-EPMC6338591 | biostudies-literature
Project description:PurposeMany practices are moving away from cleavage-stage transfer in favor of blastocyst transfer. The purpose of this study is to evaluate how the overall live birth rate for fresh IVF cycles may increase by optimizing the day of transfer for each patient.MethodsThis is a retrospective cohort study of 1225 first fresh autologous IVF cycles performed between May 2012 and November 2013. Stepwise logistic regression was used to determine characteristics associated with live birth following cleavage-stage versus blastocyst transfer. The optimal transfer day (i.e., the day that maximized the odds of live birth) was determined for each patient, and the actual live birth rate was compared with the projected rate had each patient undergone transfer on her optimal day.ResultsWith transfer on the optimal day for each patient, the overall birth rate would have increased from its actual value of 34.8 % to a projected 43.0 %, a 24 % increase. The majority of this increase (21 %) was due to optimization of patients who underwent cleavage-stage transfer but had a higher projected birth rate from blastocyst transfer. These patients were older (37.8 versus 36.0 years, p < 0.01) and had more follicles ≥18 mm than patients who should have remained with a cleavage-stage transfer.ConclusionsA model can be built enabling patient-specific identification of optimal transfer day; within this discovery cohort, such optimization was estimated to increase live birth following a fresh transfer by 24 %. This study suggests blastocyst transfer should be more widely offered; however, there remain patients for whom a cleavage-stage transfer may yield better outcomes.
| S-EPMC5125155 | biostudies-literature
Project description: Not available
| S-EPMC9510053 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundWe aimed to develop an accurate model to predict live birth for patients receiving in vitro fertilization and embryo transfer (IVF-ET) treatment.MethodsThis is a prospective nested case-control study. Women aged between 18 and 38 years, whose body mass index (BMI) were between the range of 18.5-24 kg/m2, who had an endometrium of ≥ 8 mm at the thickest were enrolled from 2018/9 to 2020/8. All patients received IVF-ET treatment and were followed up until Jan. 2022 when they had reproductive outcomes. Endometrial samples during the window of implantation (LH + 6 to 9 days) were subjected to analyze specific endometrial receptivity genes' expression using real-time PCR (RT-PCR). Patients were divided into live birth group and non-live birth group based on IVF-ET outcomes. Clinical signatures relevant to live birth were collected, analyzed, and used to establish a predictive model for live birth by univariate analysis (clinical model). Specific endometrial receptivity genes' expression was analyzed, selected, and used to construct a predictive model for live birth by The Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) analysis (gene model). Finally, significant clinical factors and genes were used to construct a combined model for predicting live birth using multivariate logistical regression (combined model). Different models' Area Under Curve (AUC) were compared to identify the most predictive model.ResultsThirty-nine patients were enrolled in the study, twenty-four patients had live births, fifteen did not. In univariate analysis, the odds of live birth for women with ovulation dysfunction was 4 times higher than that for women with other IVF-ET indications (OR = 4.0, 95% CI: 1.125 - 8.910, P = 0.018). Age, body mass index, duration of infertility, primary infertility, repeated implantation failure, antral follicle counting, ovarian sensitivity index, anti-Mullerian hormone, controlled ovarian hyperstimulation protocol and duration, total dose of FSH/hMG, number of oocytes retrieved, regiment of endometrial preparation, endometrium thickness before embryo transfer, type of embryo transferred were not associated with live birth (P > 0.05). Only ovulation dysfunction was used to construct the clinical model and its AUC was 0.688. In lasso analysis, GAST, GPX3, THBS2 were found to promote the risk of live birth. AUCs for GAST, GPX3, THBS2 reached to 0.736, 0.672, and 0.678, respectively. The gene model was established based on these three genes and its AUC was 0.772. Ovulation dysfunction, GAST, GPX3, and THBS2 were finally used to construct the combined model, reaching the highest AUC (AUC = 0.842).ConclusionsCompared to the single model, the combined model of clinical (Ovulation dysfunction) and specific genes (GAST, GPX3, THBS2) was more accurate to predict live birth for IVF-ET patients.
| S-EPMC10541716 | biostudies-literature
Project description:In recent years, the freeze-all strategy has been widely adopted and applied. However, with the exception of age, the factors that affect the outcomes of frozen embryo transfer are still unclear. Therefore, the identification and mitigation of factors that influence the live birth rate after frozen embryo transfer is a good way to increase the "take-home-baby" rate of frozen embryo transfer. The objective of this study was to identify factors affecting the live birth rate after cleavage-stage frozen embryo transfer in young ovulatory women. This was a secondary analysis from a previously published multicenter randomized controlled trial (ChiCTR-IOR-14005406) that was originally designed to compare the live birth rate and perinatal complications after fresh embryo transfer to those after frozen embryo transfer among ovulatory women. This study was carried out using a portion of the data from the original randomized controlled trial, which included 917 young women who underwent cleavage-stage frozen embryo transfer. The 16 clinical candidate variables potentially affecting the live birth rate after frozen embryo transfer were analyzed. Univariable analysis and multivariable analysis were performed to assess the relationship between predictive factors and outcomes, with the aim of identifying independent predictors of live birth after frozen embryo transfer. In this study, the live birth rate was 53.0% (486/917). Three independent predictors were ultimately identified as the main factors affecting the live birth rate of ovulatory young women. Infertility duration [odds ratio (OR): 0.933, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.876-0.995, p = 0.033], endometrial thickness before frozen embryo transfer (OR: 3.375, 95% CI: 1.556-7.321 p = 0.002), and the number of embryos transferred (OR: 2.653, 95% CI:1.226-5,743, p = 0.013) were the major factors contributing to the live birth rate after cleavage-stage frozen embryo transfer among young women. The cut-off point for infertility duration was 4.5 years, and the cut-off point for endometrial thickness was 0.89 cm. Infertility duration, endometrial thickness and number of embryos transferred might affect the live birth rate after frozen embryo transfer among young women. This result could help inform clinical decisions and counseling to increase the live birth rate after frozen embryo transfer among young women.
| S-EPMC7105776 | biostudies-literature
Project description:PurposeTo evaluate whether endometrial compaction using sequential transvaginal ultrasound is associated with improved live birth rates in medicated single euploid frozen embryo transfer (FET) cycles.MethodsProspective observational cohort study at a private fertility clinic. Patients who underwent FETs between January and December 2018 were assessed for inclusion. The change in endometrial thickness between the end of the estrogen phase and the day before embryo transfer, measured by sequential transvaginal ultrasound, was used to categorize cycles with compaction (≥ 5%), no change, or expansion (≥ 5%). FET cycle outcomes were then compared between groups. The primary outcome was live birth. Secondary outcomes include clinical pregnancy rate and rate of spontaneous abortion.ResultsOf the 259 single euploid medicated FETs performed during the study period, only 43/259 (16.6%) of the cycles demonstrated ≥ 5% compaction, whereas 152/259 (58.7%) expanded and 64/259 (24.7%) were unchanged. Live birth rates did not differ between cycles with compaction (58.1%), no change (54.7%), or expansion (58.6%), p = 0.96. Clinical pregnancy and spontaneous abortion rates were also similar between groups.ConclusionThe vast majority of cycles did not demonstrate endometrial compaction. Endometrial compaction is not associated with live birth rate or spontaneous abortion rate in medicated single euploid FETs in this cohort.
| S-EPMC7884553 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Do differences in blood pressure within the normal range have any impacts on the live birth rate (primary outcome) or biochemical pregnancy rate (beta-hCG positivity), clinical pregnancy rate (heart beating in ultrasound), abortion rate and ectopic pregnancy rate (secondary outcomes) of fresh embryo transfer in women undergoing their IVF/ICSI treatment? Even rather small differences in baseline blood pressure in women with normal blood pressure according to current guidelines undergoing fresh embryo transfer after IVF/ICSI affects substantially the live birth rate. Pre-pregnancy hypertension is a well-known risk factor for adverse pregnancy events such as preeclampsia, fetal growth restriction, placental abruption and adverse neonatal events. It is likewise well known that hypertension during pregnancy in women undergoing ART is associated with adverse pregnancy outcomes. However, whether blood pressure at the high end of the normal range has an impact on ART is unknown. It is a prospective observational cohort study based on a single IVF center between January 2017 and December 2018. Two thousand four hundred and eighteen women with normal blood pressure undergoing fresh embryo transfer after IVF/ICSI at the Reproductive and Genetic Hospital of CITIC-Xiangya were enrolled in this study. Blood pressure was measured at the first visit when women consulted the IVF center due to infertility. In women with a successful pregnancy outcome (1487 live births out of 2418 women undergoing fresh embryo transfer after IVF/ICSI), systolic blood pressure (SBP) (114.1 ± 9.48 mmHg versus 115.4 ± 9.8 mmHg, P = 0.001) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) (74.5 ± 7.5 mmHg versus 75.3 ± 7.34 mmHg, P = 0.006) were lower than in those who did not achieve live births. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that SBP (OR: 0.987, 95% CI: 0.979-0.996, P = 0.004) and DBP (OR: 0.986, 95% CI: 0.975-0.998, P = 0.016) were negatively associated with live birth. Similarly, SBP was significantly negatively related to clinical pregnancy rate (OR: 0.990, 95% CI: 0.981-0.999, P = 0.033), while for DBP the association was not statistically significant (OR: 0.994, 95% CI: 0.982-1.006, P = 0.343). However, both SBP and DBP were positively associated with miscarriage OR: 1.021 (95% CI: 1.004-1.037, P = 0.013) and OR: 1.027 (95% CI: 1.005-1.049, P = 0.014), respectively. Both SBP and DBP were unrelated to biochemical pregnancy (hCG positivity), implantation and ectopic pregnancy rate. Whether lowering blood pressure before initiating ART treatment in women with SBP or DBP higher than the thresholds defined in our study will confer a benefit is unknown. Also, we cannot exclude bias due to different ethnicities. Moreover, participants in our study only received fresh embryo transfer, whether the results could apply to frozen embryo transfer is unclear. Our study challenges the current blood pressure goals in women undergoing fresh embryo transfer after IVF/ICSI. Further studies are needed to figure out the mechanism and effective approach to increase IVF/ICSI pregnancy outcomes. Hunan Provincial Grant for Innovative Province Construction (2019SK4012). The authors declare that there were no conflicts of interest in this study. N/A.
| S-EPMC9627811 | biostudies-literature
Project description:PurposeTo study the relationship between blastomere number and pregnancy outcomes of day 3 embryo transfers.MethodsThis retrospective cohort study included 2237 fresh single day 3 embryo transfer cycles from October 2013 to November 2020. Patients were divided into six groups according to the blastomere number on day 3: ≤ 6-cell (n = 100), 7-cell (n = 207), 8-cell (n = 1522), 9-cell (n = 187), 10-cell (n = 91) and ≥ 11-cell (n = 130). Generalized estimating equation analysis based on multivariate logistic regression model was performed to adjust for potential confounders.ResultsThe live birth rate (LBR) was 19.0%, 27.1%, 38.9%, 32.1%, 44.0% and 53.8% for the ≤ 6-cell, 7-cell, 8-cell, 9-cell, 10-cell and ≥ 11-cell groups, respectively (P < 0.001). Specifically, the ≤ 6-cell group was associated with reduced LBR compared with the 8-cell group (aOR 0.50, 95% CI 0.29-0.86; P = 0.013). Conversely, the odds of live birth were significantly increased in patients transferred with 10-cell embryos (aOR 1.62, 95% CI 1.03-2.53; P = 0.035) and ≥ 11-cell embryos (aOR 2.14, 95% CI 1.47-3.11; P < 0.001) when using the 8-cell embryo group as reference. Similar trends were also observed in the rates of positive hCG test and clinical pregnancy, while no significant differences were detected in miscarriage risk.ConclusionIncreased blastomere number was associated with higher LBR in fresh single day 3 embryo transfer cycles. This finding questions the consensus on the reduced developmental potential of fast-cleaving embryos. Further large prospective studies are warranted for confirmation.
| S-EPMC8917733 | biostudies-literature
Project description: Not available
| S-EPMC7401760 | biostudies-literature