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A validated model for predicting live birth after embryo transfer.

ABSTRACT: Accurately predicting the probability of live birth and multiple gestations is important for determining a safe number of embryos to transfer after in vitro fertilization. We developed a model that can be fit to individual clinic data for predicting singleton, twin, and total live birth rates after human embryo transfer. The predicted and observed rates of singleton and twin deliveries were compared in a tenfold cross-validation study using data from a single clinic. The model presented accounts for patient age, embryo stage (cleavage or blastocyst), type of transfer cycle (fresh or frozen) and uterine/universal factors. The standardized errors for rates of singleton and twin deliveries were normally distributed and the mean errors were not significantly different from zero (all p > 0.05). The live birth rates per embryo varied from as high as 43% for fresh blastocysts in the 35-year-old age group to as low as 1% for frozen cleavage stage embryos in the 43-year-old age group. This quantitative model or a simplified version can be used for clinics to generate and analyze their own data to guide the number of embryos to transfer to limit the risk of multiple gestations.

SUBMITTER: Awadalla MS

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8144418 | biostudies-literature | 2021 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A validated model for predicting live birth after embryo transfer.

Awadalla Michael S MS Bendikson Kristin A KA Ho Jacqueline R JR McGinnis Lynda K LK Ahmady Ali A

Scientific reports 20210524 1

Accurately predicting the probability of live birth and multiple gestations is important for determining a safe number of embryos to transfer after in vitro fertilization. We developed a model that can be fit to individual clinic data for predicting singleton, twin, and total live birth rates after human embryo transfer. The predicted and observed rates of singleton and twin deliveries were compared in a tenfold cross-validation study using data from a single clinic. The model presented accounts ...[more]

PMID: 34031492

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Project description:BackgroundWe aimed to develop an accurate model to predict live birth for patients receiving in vitro fertilization and embryo transfer (IVF-ET) treatment.MethodsThis is a prospective nested case-control study. Women aged between 18 and 38 years, whose body mass index (BMI) were between the range of 18.5-24 kg/m2, who had an endometrium of ≥ 8 mm at the thickest were enrolled from 2018/9 to 2020/8. All patients received IVF-ET treatment and were followed up until Jan. 2022 when they had reproductive outcomes. Endometrial samples during the window of implantation (LH + 6 to 9 days) were subjected to analyze specific endometrial receptivity genes' expression using real-time PCR (RT-PCR). Patients were divided into live birth group and non-live birth group based on IVF-ET outcomes. Clinical signatures relevant to live birth were collected, analyzed, and used to establish a predictive model for live birth by univariate analysis (clinical model). Specific endometrial receptivity genes' expression was analyzed, selected, and used to construct a predictive model for live birth by The Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) analysis (gene model). Finally, significant clinical factors and genes were used to construct a combined model for predicting live birth using multivariate logistical regression (combined model). Different models' Area Under Curve (AUC) were compared to identify the most predictive model.ResultsThirty-nine patients were enrolled in the study, twenty-four patients had live births, fifteen did not. In univariate analysis, the odds of live birth for women with ovulation dysfunction was 4 times higher than that for women with other IVF-ET indications (OR = 4.0, 95% CI: 1.125 - 8.910, P = 0.018). Age, body mass index, duration of infertility, primary infertility, repeated implantation failure, antral follicle counting, ovarian sensitivity index, anti-Mullerian hormone, controlled ovarian hyperstimulation protocol and duration, total dose of FSH/hMG, number of oocytes retrieved, regiment of endometrial preparation, endometrium thickness before embryo transfer, type of embryo transferred were not associated with live birth (P > 0.05). Only ovulation dysfunction was used to construct the clinical model and its AUC was 0.688. In lasso analysis, GAST, GPX3, THBS2 were found to promote the risk of live birth. AUCs for GAST, GPX3, THBS2 reached to 0.736, 0.672, and 0.678, respectively. The gene model was established based on these three genes and its AUC was 0.772. Ovulation dysfunction, GAST, GPX3, and THBS2 were finally used to construct the combined model, reaching the highest AUC (AUC = 0.842).ConclusionsCompared to the single model, the combined model of clinical (Ovulation dysfunction) and specific genes (GAST, GPX3, THBS2) was more accurate to predict live birth for IVF-ET patients.

Project description:In recent years, the freeze-all strategy has been widely adopted and applied. However, with the exception of age, the factors that affect the outcomes of frozen embryo transfer are still unclear. Therefore, the identification and mitigation of factors that influence the live birth rate after frozen embryo transfer is a good way to increase the "take-home-baby" rate of frozen embryo transfer. The objective of this study was to identify factors affecting the live birth rate after cleavage-stage frozen embryo transfer in young ovulatory women. This was a secondary analysis from a previously published multicenter randomized controlled trial (ChiCTR-IOR-14005406) that was originally designed to compare the live birth rate and perinatal complications after fresh embryo transfer to those after frozen embryo transfer among ovulatory women. This study was carried out using a portion of the data from the original randomized controlled trial, which included 917 young women who underwent cleavage-stage frozen embryo transfer. The 16 clinical candidate variables potentially affecting the live birth rate after frozen embryo transfer were analyzed. Univariable analysis and multivariable analysis were performed to assess the relationship between predictive factors and outcomes, with the aim of identifying independent predictors of live birth after frozen embryo transfer. In this study, the live birth rate was 53.0% (486/917). Three independent predictors were ultimately identified as the main factors affecting the live birth rate of ovulatory young women. Infertility duration [odds ratio (OR): 0.933, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.876-0.995, p = 0.033], endometrial thickness before frozen embryo transfer (OR: 3.375, 95% CI: 1.556-7.321 p = 0.002), and the number of embryos transferred (OR: 2.653, 95% CI:1.226-5,743, p = 0.013) were the major factors contributing to the live birth rate after cleavage-stage frozen embryo transfer among young women. The cut-off point for infertility duration was 4.5 years, and the cut-off point for endometrial thickness was 0.89 cm. Infertility duration, endometrial thickness and number of embryos transferred might affect the live birth rate after frozen embryo transfer among young women. This result could help inform clinical decisions and counseling to increase the live birth rate after frozen embryo transfer among young women.

Project description:Do differences in blood pressure within the normal range have any impacts on the live birth rate (primary outcome) or biochemical pregnancy rate (beta-hCG positivity), clinical pregnancy rate (heart beating in ultrasound), abortion rate and ectopic pregnancy rate (secondary outcomes) of fresh embryo transfer in women undergoing their IVF/ICSI treatment? Even rather small differences in baseline blood pressure in women with normal blood pressure according to current guidelines undergoing fresh embryo transfer after IVF/ICSI affects substantially the live birth rate. Pre-pregnancy hypertension is a well-known risk factor for adverse pregnancy events such as preeclampsia, fetal growth restriction, placental abruption and adverse neonatal events. It is likewise well known that hypertension during pregnancy in women undergoing ART is associated with adverse pregnancy outcomes. However, whether blood pressure at the high end of the normal range has an impact on ART is unknown. It is a prospective observational cohort study based on a single IVF center between January 2017 and December 2018. Two thousand four hundred and eighteen women with normal blood pressure undergoing fresh embryo transfer after IVF/ICSI at the Reproductive and Genetic Hospital of CITIC-Xiangya were enrolled in this study. Blood pressure was measured at the first visit when women consulted the IVF center due to infertility. In women with a successful pregnancy outcome (1487 live births out of 2418 women undergoing fresh embryo transfer after IVF/ICSI), systolic blood pressure (SBP) (114.1 ± 9.48 mmHg versus 115.4 ± 9.8 mmHg, P = 0.001) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) (74.5 ± 7.5 mmHg versus 75.3 ± 7.34 mmHg, P = 0.006) were lower than in those who did not achieve live births. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that SBP (OR: 0.987, 95% CI: 0.979-0.996, P = 0.004) and DBP (OR: 0.986, 95% CI: 0.975-0.998, P = 0.016) were negatively associated with live birth. Similarly, SBP was significantly negatively related to clinical pregnancy rate (OR: 0.990, 95% CI: 0.981-0.999, P = 0.033), while for DBP the association was not statistically significant (OR: 0.994, 95% CI: 0.982-1.006, P = 0.343). However, both SBP and DBP were positively associated with miscarriage OR: 1.021 (95% CI: 1.004-1.037, P = 0.013) and OR: 1.027 (95% CI: 1.005-1.049, P = 0.014), respectively. Both SBP and DBP were unrelated to biochemical pregnancy (hCG positivity), implantation and ectopic pregnancy rate. Whether lowering blood pressure before initiating ART treatment in women with SBP or DBP higher than the thresholds defined in our study will confer a benefit is unknown. Also, we cannot exclude bias due to different ethnicities. Moreover, participants in our study only received fresh embryo transfer, whether the results could apply to frozen embryo transfer is unclear. Our study challenges the current blood pressure goals in women undergoing fresh embryo transfer after IVF/ICSI. Further studies are needed to figure out the mechanism and effective approach to increase IVF/ICSI pregnancy outcomes. Hunan Provincial Grant for Innovative Province Construction (2019SK4012). The authors declare that there were no conflicts of interest in this study. N/A.

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A validated model for predicting live birth after embryo transfer.

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A validated model for predicting live birth after embryo transfer.

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