Browse
Submit Data
Databases
API
Help

Dataset Information

29 Views

0 Connections

0 Citations

0 Reanalyses

0 Downloads

Omics score: 0

Global health effects of future atmospheric mercury emissions.

ABSTRACT: Mercury is a potent neurotoxin that poses health risks to the global population. Anthropogenic mercury emissions to the atmosphere are projected to decrease in the future due to enhanced policy efforts such as the Minamata Convention, a legally-binding international treaty entered into force in 2017. Here, we report the development of a comprehensive climate-atmosphere-land-ocean-ecosystem and exposure-risk model framework for mercury and its application to project the health effects of future atmospheric emissions. Our results show that the accumulated health effects associated with mercury exposure during 2010-2050 are $19 (95% confidence interval: 4.7-54) trillion (2020 USD) realized to 2050 (3% discount rate) for the current policy scenario. Our results suggest a substantial increase in global human health cost if emission reduction actions are delayed. This comprehensive modeling approach provides a much-needed tool to help parties to evaluate the effectiveness of Hg emission controls as required by the Minamata Convention.

SUBMITTER: Zhang Y

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8144432 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Json Xml

Similar Datasets

Global health impact of atmospheric mercury emissions from artisanal and small-scale gold mining.

Project description:Artisanal and small-scale gold mining (ASGM) is the leading source of mercury (Hg), a global neurotoxin. Past research has focused on the health impacts on miners and nearby residents; here, we estimate the risk for global general populations by employing a comprehensive atmosphere-land-ocean-ecosystem and exposure-risk-valuation model framework. Our results suggest that ASGM sources contribute 12%, 10%, and 0.63% to the atmospheric Hg deposition, plankton methylmercury concentrations, and soil total Hg concentrations at present day, respectively, and cause 5.8×105 points of intelligence quotient decrements and 1,430 deaths for global general populations per year. The monetized global health impact of ASGM ($154 billion) is 1.5 times its local impact and accounts for half of the total revenue of ASGM ($319 billion). A major spatial decoupling between the health impact and economic gains is also revealed, suggesting that intervention measures such as awareness-raising, capacity-building, and technology transfer funded by the Global North are cost-effective.

| S-EPMC9418800 | biostudies-literature

Trans-provincial health impacts of atmospheric mercury emissions in China.

Project description:Mercury (Hg) exposure poses substantial risks to human health. Investigating a longer chain from economic activities to human health can reveal the sources and critical processes of Hg-related health risks. Thus, we develop a more comprehensive assessment method which is applied to mainland China-the largest global Hg emitter. We present a map of Hg-related health risks in China and estimate that 0.14 points of per-foetus intelligence quotient (IQ) decrements and 7,360 deaths from fatal heart attacks are related to the intake of methylmercury in 2010. This study, for the first time, reveals the significant impacts of interprovincial trade on Hg-related health risks across the whole country. For instance, interprovincial trade induced by final consumption prevents 0.39 × 10-2 points for per-foetus IQ decrements and 194 deaths from fatal heart attacks. These findings highlight the importance of policy decisions in different stages of economic supply chains to reduce Hg-related health risks.

| S-EPMC6445112 | biostudies-literature

Observed decrease in atmospheric mercury explained by global decline in anthropogenic emissions.

Project description:Observations of elemental mercury (Hg(0)) at sites in North America and Europe show large decreases (∼ 1-2% y(-1)) from 1990 to present. Observations in background northern hemisphere air, including Mauna Loa Observatory (Hawaii) and CARIBIC (Civil Aircraft for the Regular Investigation of the atmosphere Based on an Instrument Container) aircraft flights, show weaker decreases (<1% y(-1)). These decreases are inconsistent with current global emission inventories indicating flat or increasing emissions over that period. However, the inventories have three major flaws: (i) they do not account for the decline in atmospheric release of Hg from commercial products; (ii) they are biased in their estimate of artisanal and small-scale gold mining emissions; and (iii) they do not properly account for the change in Hg(0)/Hg(II) speciation of emissions from coal-fired utilities after implementation of emission controls targeted at SO2 and NOx. We construct an improved global emission inventory for the period 1990 to 2010 accounting for the above factors and find a 20% decrease in total Hg emissions and a 30% decrease in anthropogenic Hg(0) emissions, with much larger decreases in North America and Europe offsetting the effect of increasing emissions in Asia. Implementation of our inventory in a global 3D atmospheric Hg simulation [GEOS-Chem (Goddard Earth Observing System-Chemistry)] coupled to land and ocean reservoirs reproduces the observed large-scale trends in atmospheric Hg(0) concentrations and in Hg(II) wet deposition. The large trends observed in North America and Europe reflect the phase-out of Hg from commercial products as well as the cobenefit from SO2 and NOx emission controls on coal-fired utilities.

| S-EPMC4725498 | biostudies-other

Global atmospheric emissions of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons from 1960 to 2008 and future predictions.

Project description:Global atmospheric emissions of 16 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) from 69 major sources were estimated for a period from 1960 to 2030. Regression models and a technology split method were used to estimate country and time specific emission factors, resulting in a new estimate of PAH emission factor variation among different countries and over time. PAH emissions in 2007 were spatially resolved to 0.1° × 0.1° grids based on a newly developed global high-resolution fuel combustion inventory (PKU-FUEL-2007). The global total annual atmospheric emission of 16 PAHs in 2007 was 504 Gg (331-818 Gg, as interquartile range), with residential/commercial biomass burning (60.5%), open-field biomass burning (agricultural waste burning, deforestation, and wildfire, 13.6%), and petroleum consumption by on-road motor vehicles (12.8%) as the major sources. South (87 Gg), East (111 Gg), and Southeast Asia (52 Gg) were the regions with the highest PAH emission densities, contributing half of the global total PAH emissions. Among the global total PAH emissions, 6.19% of the emissions were in the form of high molecular weight carcinogenic compounds and the percentage of the carcinogenic PAHs was higher in developing countries (6.22%) than in developed countries (5.73%), due to the differences in energy structures and the disparities of technology. The potential health impact of the PAH emissions was greatest in the parts of the world with high anthropogenic PAH emissions, because of the overlap of the high emissions and high population densities. Global total PAH emissions peaked at 592 Gg in 1995 and declined gradually to 499 Gg in 2008. Total PAH emissions from developed countries peaked at 122 Gg in the early 1970s and decreased to 38 Gg in 2008. Simulation of PAH emissions from 2009 to 2030 revealed that PAH emissions in developed and developing countries would decrease by 46-71% and 48-64%, respectively, based on the six IPCC SRES scenarios.

| S-EPMC3753807 | biostudies-literature

Global health impacts of future aviation emissions under alternative control scenarios.

Project description:There is strong evidence of an association between fine particulate matter less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) in aerodynamic diameter and adverse health outcomes. This study analyzes the global excess mortality attributable to the aviation sector in the present (2006) and in the future (three 2050 scenarios) using the integrated exposure response model that was also used in the 2010 Global Burden of Disease assessment. The PM2.5 concentrations for the present and future scenarios were calculated using aviation emission inventories developed by the Volpe National Transportation Systems Center and a global chemistry-climate model. We found that while excess mortality due to the aviation sector emissions is greater in 2050 compared to 2006, improved fuel policies (technology and operations improvements yielding smaller increases in fuel burn compared to 2006, and conversion to fully sustainable fuels) in 2050 could lead to 72% fewer deaths for adults 25 years and older than a 2050 scenario with no fuel improvements. Among the four health outcomes examined, ischemic heart disease was the greatest cause of death. Our results suggest that implementation of improved fuel policies can have substantial human health benefits.

| S-EPMC4270391 | biostudies-literature

Photoreduction of gaseous oxidized mercury changes global atmospheric mercury speciation, transport and deposition.

Project description:Anthropogenic mercury (Hg(0)) emissions oxidize to gaseous Hg(II) compounds, before deposition to Earth surface ecosystems. Atmospheric reduction of Hg(II) competes with deposition, thereby modifying the magnitude and pattern of Hg deposition. Global Hg models have postulated that Hg(II) reduction in the atmosphere occurs through aqueous-phase photoreduction that may take place in clouds. Here we report that experimental rainfall Hg(II) photoreduction rates are much slower than modelled rates. We compute absorption cross sections of Hg(II) compounds and show that fast gas-phase Hg(II) photolysis can dominate atmospheric mercury reduction and lead to a substantial increase in the modelled, global atmospheric Hg lifetime by a factor two. Models with Hg(II) photolysis show enhanced Hg(0) deposition to land, which may prolong recovery of aquatic ecosystems long after Hg emissions are lowered, due to the longer residence time of Hg in soils compared with the ocean. Fast Hg(II) photolysis substantially changes atmospheric Hg dynamics and requires further assessment at regional and local scales.

| S-EPMC6237998 | biostudies-literature

Nitrogen trifluoride global emissions estimated from updated atmospheric measurements.

Project description:Nitrogen trifluoride (NF(3)) has potential to make a growing contribution to the Earth's radiative budget; however, our understanding of its atmospheric burden and emission rates has been limited. Based on a revision of our previous calibration and using an expanded set of atmospheric measurements together with an atmospheric model and inverse method, we estimate that the global emissions of NF(3) in 2011 were 1.18 ± 0.21 Gg⋅y(-1), or ∼20 Tg CO(2)-eq⋅y(-1) (carbon dioxide equivalent emissions based on a 100-y global warming potential of 16,600 for NF(3)). The 2011 global mean tropospheric dry air mole fraction was 0.86 ± 0.04 parts per trillion, resulting from an average emissions growth rate of 0.09 Gg⋅y(-2) over the prior decade. In terms of CO(2) equivalents, current NF(3) emissions represent between 17% and 36% of the emissions of other long-lived fluorinated compounds from electronics manufacture. We also estimate that the emissions benefit of using NF(3) over hexafluoroethane (C(2)F(6)) in electronics manufacture is significant-emissions of between 53 and 220 Tg CO(2)-eq⋅y(-1) were avoided during 2011. Despite these savings, total NF(3) emissions, currently ∼10% of production, are still significantly larger than expected assuming global implementation of ideal industrial practices. As such, there is a continuing need for improvements in NF(3) emissions reduction strategies to keep pace with its increasing use and to slow its rising contribution to anthropogenic climate forcing.

| S-EPMC3568375 | biostudies-literature

Author Correction: Photoreduction of gaseous oxidized mercury changes global atmospheric mercury speciation, transport and deposition.

Project description: Not available

| S-EPMC8831628 | biostudies-literature

Global demographic trends and future carbon emissions.

Project description:Substantial changes in population size, age structure, and urbanization are expected in many parts of the world this century. Although such changes can affect energy use and greenhouse gas emissions, emissions scenario analyses have either left them out or treated them in a fragmentary or overly simplified manner. We carry out a comprehensive assessment of the implications of demographic change for global emissions of carbon dioxide. Using an energy-economic growth model that accounts for a range of demographic dynamics, we show that slowing population growth could provide 16-29% of the emissions reductions suggested to be necessary by 2050 to avoid dangerous climate change. We also find that aging and urbanization can substantially influence emissions in particular world regions.

| S-EPMC2955139 | biostudies-literature

Future carbon emissions from global mangrove forest loss.

Project description:Mangroves have among the highest carbon densities of any tropical forest. These 'blue carbon' ecosystems can store large amounts of carbon for long periods, and their protection reduces greenhouse gas emissions and supports climate change mitigation. Incorporating mangroves into Nationally Determined Contributions to the Paris Agreement and their valuation on carbon markets requires predicting how the management of different land-uses can prevent future greenhouse gas emissions and increase CO2 sequestration. We integrated comprehensive global datasets for carbon stocks, mangrove distribution, deforestation rates, and land-use change drivers into a predictive model of mangrove carbon emissions. We project emissions and foregone soil carbon sequestration potential under 'business as usual' rates of mangrove loss. Emissions from mangrove loss could reach 2391 Tg CO2 eq by the end of the century, or 3392 Tg CO2 eq when considering foregone soil carbon sequestration. The highest emissions were predicted in southeast and south Asia (West Coral Triangle, Sunda Shelf, and the Bay of Bengal) due to conversion to aquaculture or agriculture, followed by the Caribbean (Tropical Northwest Atlantic) due to clearing and erosion, and the Andaman coast (West Myanmar) and north Brazil due to erosion. Together, these six regions accounted for 90% of the total potential CO2 eq future emissions. Mangrove loss has been slowing, and global emissions could be more than halved if reduced loss rates remain in the future. Notably, the location of global emission hotspots was consistent with every dataset used to calculate deforestation rates or with alternative assumptions about carbon storage and emissions. Our results indicate the regions in need of policy actions to address emissions arising from mangrove loss and the drivers that could be managed to prevent them.

| S-EPMC8251893 | biostudies-literature

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

OmicsDI is an Elixir interoperability service. Learn more ›

Tweets

OmicsDI Databases

PRIDE
PeptideAtlas
MassIVE
JPOST Repository
Physiome Model Repository

EGA
EVA
ENA
LINCS
PAXDB
Cell Collective

MetaboLights
Metabolomics Workbench
MetabolomeExpress
GNPS
BioModels
FAIRDOMHub

ArrayExpress
dbGaP
ExpressionAtlas
GEO
NODE

Information

Databases
Help
API
Contact us
Code on GitHub
Terms of use
Submit Data