Forecasting of Lung Cancer Incident Cases at the Small-Area Level in Victoria, Australia.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Wah W
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8151486 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:ObjectiveHospitalisation rates for many chronic conditions are higher in socioeconomically disadvantaged and less accessible areas. We aimed to map diabetes hospitalisation rates by local government area (LGA) across Western Victoria, Australia, and investigate their association with socioeconomic status (SES) and accessibility/remoteness.DesignCross-sectional study METHODS: Data were acquired from the Victorian Admitted Episodes Dataset for all hospitalisations (public and private) with a diagnosis of type 1 or type 2 diabetes mellitus during 2011-2014. Crude and age-standardised hospitalisation rates (per 1000 population per year) were calculated by LGA for men, women and combined data. Associations between accessibility (Accessibility/Remoteness Index of Australia, ARIA), SES (Index of Relative Socioeconomic Advantage and Disadvantage, IRSAD) and diabetes hospitalisation were investigated using Poisson regression analyses.ResultsHigher LGA-level accessibility and SES were associated with higher rates of type 1 and type 2 diabetes hospitalisation, overall and for each sex. For type 1 diabetes, higher accessibility (ARIA category) was associated with higher hospitalisation rates (men incidence rate ratio [IRR]=2.14, 95% CI 1.64 to 2.80; women IRR=2.45, 95% CI 1.87 to 3.19; combined IRR=2.30, 95% CI 1.69 to 3.13; all p<0.05). Higher socioeconomic advantage (IRSAD decile) was also associated with higher hospitalisation rates (men IRR=1.25, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.43; women IRR=1.32, 95% CI 1.16 to 1.51; combined IRR=1.23, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.42; all p<0.05). Similarly, for type 2 diabetes, higher accessibility (ARIA category) was associated with higher hospitalisation rates (men IRR=2.49, 95% CI 1.81 to 3.43; women IRR=2.34, 95% CI 1.69 to 3.25; combined IRR=2.32, 95% CI 1.66 to 3.25; all p<0.05) and higher socioeconomic advantage (IRSAD decile) was also associated with higher hospitalisation rates (men IRR=1.15, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.30; women IRR=1.14, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.28; combined IRR=1.13, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.27; all p<0.05).ConclusionOur observations could indicate self-motivated treatment seeking, and better specialist and hospital services availability in the advantaged and accessible areas in the study region. The determinants for such variations in hospitalisation rates, however, are multifaceted and warrant further research.
| S-EPMC6537986 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundDengue, a vector-borne infectious disease caused by the dengue virus, has spread through tropical and subtropical regions of the world. All four serotypes of dengue viruses are endemic in the equatorial city state of Singapore, and frequent localised outbreaks occur, sometimes leading to national epidemics. Vector control remains the primary and most effective measure for dengue control and prevention. The objective of this study is to develop a novel framework for producing a spatio-temporal dengue forecast at a neighbourhood level spatial resolution that can be routinely used by Singapore's government agencies for planning of vector control for best efficiency.MethodsThe forecasting algorithm uses a mixture of purely spatial, purely temporal and spatio-temporal data to derive dynamic risk maps for dengue transmission. LASSO-based regression was used for the prediction models and separate sub-models were constructed for each forecast window. Data were divided into training and testing sets for out-of-sample validation. Neighbourhoods were categorised as high or low risk based on the forecast number of cases within the cell. The predictive accuracy of the categorisation was measured.ResultsClose concordance between the projections and the eventual incidence of dengue were observed. The average Matthew's correlation coefficient for a classification of the upper risk decile (operational capacity) is similar to the predictive performance at the optimal 30% cut-off. The quality of the spatial predictive algorithm as a classifier shows areas under the curve at all forecast windows being above 0.75 and above 0.80 within the next month.ConclusionsSpatially resolved forecasts of geographically structured diseases like dengue can be obtained at a neighbourhood level in highly urban environments at a precision that is suitable for guiding control efforts. The same method can be adapted to other urban and even rural areas, with appropriate adjustment to the grid size and shape.
| S-EPMC6091171 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundIn the Nordic countries, universal healthcare access has been effective in reducing socioeconomic disparities in non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) management. However, other factors, such as proximity to healthcare facilities, may still affect access to care. This study aimed at investigating the influence of residential area on NSCLC survival.MethodsThis population-based study utilized hospital records to identify NSCLC patients who underwent their initial treatment at Vaasa Central Hospital between January 1, 2016, and December 31, 2020. Patients were categorized based on their postal codes into urban areas (≤50 km from the hospital) and rural areas (>50 km from the hospital). Survival rates between these two groups were compared using Cox regression analysis.ResultsA total of 321 patients were included in the study. Patients residing in rural areas (n = 104) exhibited poorer 12-month survival rates compared to their urban counterparts (n = 217) (unadjusted Hazard Ratio [HR]: 1.38; 95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 1.01-1.89; p = 0.042). After adjusting for factors such as performance status, frailty, and stage at diagnosis in a multivariate Cox regression model, the adjusted HR increased to 1.47 (95% CI: 1.07-2.01; p = 0.017) for patients living in rural areas compared to those in urban areas.InterpretationThe study findings indicate that the distance to the hospital is associated with increased lung cancer mortality. This suggests that geographical proximity may play a crucial role in the disparities observed in NSCLC survival rates. Addressing these disparities should involve strategies aimed at improving healthcare accessibility, particularly for patients residing in rural areas, to enhance NSCLC outcomes and reduce mortality.
| S-EPMC11332544 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Importance COVID-19 mRNA vaccine-associated myocarditis has previously been described; however specific features in the adolescent population are currently not well understood. Objective To describe myocarditis adverse events following immunisation reported following any COVID-19 mRNA vaccines in the adolescent population in Victoria, Australia. Design Statewide, population-based study. Setting Surveillance of Adverse Events Following Vaccination in the Community (SAEFVIC) is the vaccine-safety service for Victoria, Australia. Participants All SAEFVIC reports of myocarditis and myopericarditis in 12–17-year-old COVID-19 mRNA vaccinees submitted between 22 February 2021 and 22 February 2022, as well as accompanying diagnostic investigation results where available, were assessed using Brighton Collaboration criteria for diagnostic certainty. Exposures Any mRNA COVID-19 vaccine. Main outcomes/Mmeasure Confirmed myocarditis as per Brighton Collaboration criteria (levels 1–3). Results Clinical review demonstrated definitive (Brighton level 1) or probable (level 2) diagnoses in 75 cases. Confirmed myocarditis reporting rates were 8.3 per 100 000 doses in this age group. Cases were predominantly male (n=62, 82.7%) and post dose 2 (n=61, 81.3%). Rates peaked in the 16–17-year-old age group and were higher in males than females (17.7 vs 3.9 per 100 000, p=<0.001). The most common presenting symptoms were chest pain, dyspnoea and palpitations. A large majority of cases who had a cardiac MRI had abnormalities (n=33, 91.7%). Females were more likely to have ongoing clinical symptoms at 1-month follow-up (p=0.02). Conclusion Accurate evaluation and confirmation of episodes of COVID-19 mRNA vaccine-associated myocarditis enabled understanding of clinical phenotypes in the adolescent age group. Any potential vaccination and safety surveillance policies needs to consider age and gender differences.
| S-EPMC9240449 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Buruli ulcer (BU) is a destructive soft-tissue infection caused by the environmental pathogen Mycobacterium ulcerans. In response to rising BU notifications in the state of Victoria, Australia, we reviewed all cases that occurred during 2011-2016 to precisely map the time and likely place of M. ulcerans acquisition. We found that 600 cases of BU had been notified; just over half were in residents and the remainder in visitors to defined BU-endemic areas. During the study period, notifications increased almost 3-fold, from 66 in 2013 to 182 in 2016. We identified 4 BU-endemic areas: Bellarine Peninsula, Mornington Peninsula, Frankston region, and the southeastern Bayside suburbs of Melbourne. We observed a decline in cases on the Bellarine Peninsula but a progressive increase elsewhere. Acquisitions peaked in late summer. The appearance of new BU-endemic areas and the decline in established areas probably correlate with changes in the level of local environmental contamination with M. ulcerans.
| S-EPMC6199991 | biostudies-other
Project description:BackgroundExtreme heat is a leading weather-related cause of illness and death in many locations across the globe, including subtropical Australia. The possibility of increasingly frequent and severe heat waves warrants continued efforts to reduce this health burden, which could be accomplished by targeting intervention measures toward the most vulnerable communities.ObjectivesWe sought to quantify spatial variability in heat-related morbidity in Brisbane, Australia, to highlight regions of the city with the greatest risk. We also aimed to find area-level social and environmental determinants of high risk within Brisbane.MethodsWe used a series of hierarchical Bayesian models to examine city-wide and intracity associations between temperature and morbidity using a 2007-2011 time series of geographically referenced hospital admissions data. The models accounted for long-term time trends, seasonality, and day of week and holiday effects.ResultsOn average, a 10°C increase in daily maximum temperature during the summer was associated with a 7.2% increase in hospital admissions (95% CI: 4.7, 9.8%) on the following day. Positive statistically significant relationships between admissions and temperature were found for 16 of the city's 158 areas; negative relationships were found for 5 areas. High-risk areas were associated with a lack of high income earners and higher population density.ConclusionsGeographically targeted public health strategies for extreme heat may be effective in Brisbane, because morbidity risk was found to be spatially variable. Emergency responders, health officials, and city planners could focus on short- and long-term intervention measures that reach communities in the city with lower incomes and higher population densities, including reduction of urban heat island effects.
| S-EPMC4123028 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundSpatiotemporal modelling techniques allow one to predict injury across time and space. However, such methods have been underutilised in injury studies. This study demonstrates the use of statistical spatiotemporal modelling in identifying areas of significantly high injury risk, and areas witnessing significantly increasing risk over time.MethodsWe performed a retrospective review of hospitalised major trauma patients from the Victorian State Trauma Registry, Australia, between 2007 and 2019. Geographical locations of injury events were mapped to the 79 local government areas (LGAs) in the state. We employed Bayesian spatiotemporal models to quantify spatial and temporal patterns, and analysed the results across a range of geographical remoteness and socioeconomic levels.ResultsThere were 31,317 major trauma patients included. For major trauma overall, we observed substantial spatial variation in injury incidence and a significant 2.1% increase in injury incidence per year. Area-specific risk of injury by motor vehicle collision was higher in regional areas relative to metropolitan areas, while risk of injury by low fall was higher in metropolitan areas. Significant temporal increases were observed in injury by low fall, and the greatest increases were observed in the most disadvantaged LGAs.ConclusionsThese findings can be used to inform injury prevention initiatives, which could be designed to target areas with relatively high injury risk and with significantly increasing injury risk over time. Our finding that the greatest year-on-year increases in injury incidence were observed in the most disadvantaged areas highlights the need for a greater emphasis on reducing inequities in injury.
| S-EPMC9258853 | biostudies-literature
Project description:OBJECTIVES:Comprehensive reporting of surgical disease burden and outcomes are vital components of resilient health systems but remain under-reported. The primary objective was to identify the Victorian surgical burden of disease necessitating treatment in a hospital or day centre, including a thorough epidemiology of surgical procedures and their respective perioperative mortality rates (POMR). DESIGN:Retrospective population-level observational study. SETTING:The study was conducted in Victoria, Australia. Access to data from the Victorian Admitted Episodes Dataset was obtained using the Dr Foster Quality Investigator tool. The study included public and private facilities, including day-case facilities. PARTICIPANTS:From January 2014 to December 2016, all admissions with an International Statistical Classification of Diseases-10 code matched to the Global Health Estimates (GHE) disease categories were included. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES:Admissions were assigned a primary disease category according to the 23 GHE disease categories. Surgical procedures during hospitalisations were identified using the Australian Refined Diagnosis Related Groups (AR-DRG). POMR were calculated for GHE disease categories and AR-DRG procedures. RESULTS:A total of 4 865 226 admitted episodes were identified over the 3-year period. 1 715 862 (35.3%) of these required a surgical procedure. The mortality rate for those undergoing a procedure was 0.42%, and 1.47% for those without. The top five procedures performed per GHE category were lens procedures (162 835 cases, POMR 0.001%), caesarean delivery (76 032 cases, POMR 0.01%), abortion with operating room procedure (65 451 cases, POMR 0%), hernia procedures (52 499 cases, POMR 0.05%) and other knee procedures (47 181 cases, POMR 0.004%). CONCLUSIONS:Conditions requiring surgery were responsible for 35.3% of the hospital admitted disease burden in Victoria, a rate higher than previously published from Sweden, New Zealand and the USA. POMR is comparable to other studies reporting individual procedures and conditions, but has been reported comprehensively across all GHE disease categories for the first time.
| S-EPMC6549668 | biostudies-other
Project description:The Victoria Covid19 outbreak is well explained by the data represented in Figure 1. To August 1, 10,931 have tested positive for a coronavirus after more than 1,633,900 tests were performed. 116 people have died from coronavirus in Victoria. The number of infected, tests performed, their ratio, and the number of fatalities as communicated daily by 1 are proposed vs. the number of days since May 31st.
| S-EPMC7550945 | biostudies-literature
Project description:In 2016, the gambling habits of a sample of 3361 adults in the state of Victoria, Australia, were surveyed. It was found that a number of factors that were highly correlated with self-reported gambling frequency and gambling problems were not significant predictors of gambling frequency and problem gambling. The major predictors of gambling frequency were the degree to which family members and peers were perceived to gamble, self-reported approval of gambling, the frequency of discussing gambling offline, and the participant's Canadian Problem Gambling Severity Index (PGSI) score. Age was a significant predictor of gambling frequency for certain types of gambling (e.g. buying lottery tickets). Approximately 91% of the explainable variance in the participant's PGSI score could be explained by just five predictors: Positive Urgency; Frequency of playing poker machines at pubs, hotels or sporting clubs; Participation in online discussions of betting on gaming tables at casinos; Frequency of gambling on the internet, and Overestimating the chances of winning. Based on these findings, suggestions are made as to how gambling-related harm can be reduced.
| S-EPMC6343914 | biostudies-literature