Modelling palliative and end-of-life resource requirements during COVID-19: implications for quality care.
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ABSTRACT: Objectives
The WHO estimates that the COVID-19 pandemic has led to more than 1.3 million deaths (1 377 395) globally (as of November 2020). This surge in death necessitates identification of resource needs and relies on modelling resource and understanding anticipated surges in demand. Our aim was to develop a generic computer model that could estimate resources required for end-of-life (EoL) care delivery during the pandemic.Setting
A discrete event simulation model was developed and used to estimate resourcing needs for a geographical area in the South West of England. While our analysis focused on the UK setting, the model is flexible to changes in demand and setting.Participants
We used the model to estimate resourcing needs for a population of around 1 million people.Primary and secondary outcome measures
The model predicts the per-day 'staff' and 'stuff' resourcing required to meet a given level of incoming EoL care activity.Results
A mean of 11.97 hours of additional community nurse time, up to 33 hours of care assistant time and up to 30 hours additional care from care assistant night sits will be required per day as a result of out of hospital COVID-19 deaths based on the model prediction. Specialist palliative care demand is predicted to increase up to 19 hours per day. An additional 286 anticipatory medicine bundles per month will be necessary to alleviate physical symptoms at the EoL care for patients with COVID-19: an average additional 10.21 bundles of anticipatory medication per day. An average additional 9.35 syringe pumps could be needed to be in use per day.Conclusions
The analysis for a large region in the South West of England shows the significant additional physical and human resource required to relieve suffering at the EoL as part of a pandemic response.
SUBMITTER: Chalk D
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8154294 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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| S-EPMC9265763 | biostudies-literature
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Project description:Background. There is a need for increased palliative care training during pediatric residency. Objective. In this pilot study, we created a comprehensive experiential model to teach palliative care skills to pediatric residents. Our Comfort Care Modules (CCMs) address pediatric palliative care (PPC) topics of breaking bad news, dyspnea, anxiety, pain management, and the dying child. We also evaluated a scoring system and gathered qualitative data. Methods. The CCMs are part of the University of California San Diego pediatric residency's second-year curriculum. Comparisons were made for statistical trends between residents exposed to the modules (n = 15) and those not exposed (n = 4). Results. Nineteen of 36 residents (52%) completed surveys to self-rate their preparedness, knowledge, and confidence about PPC before and after the intervention. Resident scores increased in all areas. All improvements reached statistical significance except confidence when breaking bad news. Overall, the resident feedback about the CCMs was positive. Conclusions. This study demonstrates that the CCMs can be performed effectively in an academic setting and can benefit residents' self-perception of preparedness, confidence, and knowledge about pediatric palliative care. In the future, we plan to implement the modules on a larger scale. We encourage their use in interprofessional settings and across institutions.
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Project description:ImportancePalliative care has the potential to improve care for patients and families undergoing high-risk surgery.ObjectiveTo characterize the use of perioperative palliative care and its association with family-reported end-of-life experiences of patients who died within 90 days of a high-risk surgical operation.Design, setting, and participantsThis secondary analysis of administrative data from a retrospective cross-sectional patient cohort was conducted in the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) Healthcare System. Patients who underwent any of 227 high-risk operations between January 1, 2012, and December 31, 2015, were included.ExposuresPalliative-care consultation within 30 days before or 90 days after surgery.Main outcomes and measuresThe outcomes were family-reported ratings of overall care, communication, and support in the patient's last month of life. The VA surveyed all families of inpatient decedents using the Bereaved Family Survey, a valid and reliable tool that measures patient and family-centered end-of-life outcomes.ResultsA total of 95 204 patients underwent high-risk operations in 129 inpatient VA Medical Centers. Most patients were 65 years or older (69 278 [72.8%]), and the most common procedures were cardiothoracic (31 157 [32.7%]) or vascular (23 517 [24.7%]). The 90-day mortality rate was 6.0% (5740 patients) and varied by surgical subspecialty (ranging from 278 of 7226 [3.8%] in urologic surgery to 875 of 6223 patients [14.1%] in neurosurgery). A multivariate mixed model revealed that families of decedents who received palliative care were 47% more likely to rate overall care in the last month of life as excellent than those who did not (odds ratio [OR], 1.47 [95% CI, 1.14-1.88]; P = .007), after adjusting for patient's characteristics, surgical subspecialty of the high-risk operation, and survey nonresponse. Similarly, families of decedents who received palliative care were more likely to rate end-of-life communication (OR, 1.43 [95% CI, 1.09-1.87]; P = .004) and support (OR, 1.31 [95% CI, 1.01-1.71]; P = .05) components of medical care as excellent. Of the entire cohort, 3374 patients (3.75%) had a palliative care consultation, and 770 patients (0.8%) received it before surgery. Of all decedents, 1632 (29.9%) had a palliative care consultation, with 319 (5.6%) receiving it before surgery.Conclusions and relevanceReceipt of a palliative consultation was associated with better ratings of overall end-of-life care, communication, and support, as reported by families of patients who died within 90 days of high-risk surgery. Yet only one-third of decedents was exposed to palliative care. Expanding integration of perioperative palliative care may benefit patients undergoing high-risk operations and their families.
| S-EPMC6990868 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe COVID-19 response required the cancellation of all but the most urgent surgical procedures. The number of cancelled surgical procedures owing to Covid-19, and the reintroduction of surgical acivirt, was modelled.MethodsThis was a modelling study using Hospital Episode Statistics data (2014-2019). Surgical procedures were grouped into four urgency classes. Expected numbers of surgical procedures performed between 1 March 2020 and 28 February 2021 were modelled. Procedure deficit was estimated using conservative assumptions and the gradual reintroduction of elective surgery from the 1 June 2020. Costs were calculated using NHS reference costs and are reported as millions or billions of euros. Estimates are reported with 95 per cent confidence intervals.ResultsA total of 4?547?534 (95 per cent c.i. 3?318?195 to 6?250?771) patients with a pooled mean age of 53.5 years were expected to undergo surgery between 1 March 2020 and 28 February 2021. By 31 May 2020, 749?247 (513?564 to 1?077?448) surgical procedures had been cancelled. Assuming that elective surgery is reintroduced gradually, 2 328?193 (1?483?834 - 3?450?043) patients will be awaiting surgery by 28 February 2021. The cost of delayed procedures is €5.3 (3.1 to 8.0) billion. Safe delivery of surgery during the pandemic will require substantial extra resources costing €526.8 (449.3 to 633.9) million.ConclusionAs a consequence of the Covid-19 pandemic, provision of elective surgery will be delayed and associated with increased healthcare costs.
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