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Evolution of disease transmission during the COVID-19 pandemic: patterns and determinants.

ABSTRACT: Epidemic models are being used by governments to inform public health strategies to reduce the spread of SARS-CoV-2. They simulate potential scenarios by manipulating model parameters that control processes of disease transmission and recovery. However, the validity of these parameters is challenged by the uncertainty of the impact of public health interventions on disease transmission, and the forecasting accuracy of these models is rarely investigated during an outbreak. We fitted a stochastic transmission model on reported cases, recoveries and deaths associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection across 101 countries. The dynamics of disease transmission was represented in terms of the daily effective reproduction number ([Formula: see text]). The relationship between public health interventions and [Formula: see text] was explored, firstly using a hierarchical clustering algorithm on initial [Formula: see text] patterns, and secondly computing the time-lagged cross correlation among the daily number of policies implemented, [Formula: see text], and daily incidence counts in subsequent months. The impact of updating [Formula: see text] every time a prediction is made on the forecasting accuracy of the model was investigated. We identified 5 groups of countries with distinct transmission patterns during the first 6 months of the pandemic. Early adoption of social distancing measures and a shorter gap between interventions were associated with a reduction on the duration of outbreaks. The lagged correlation analysis revealed that increased policy volume was associated with lower future [Formula: see text] (75 days lag), while a lower [Formula: see text] was associated with lower future policy volume (102 days lag). Lastly, the outbreak prediction accuracy of the model using dynamically updated [Formula: see text] produced an average AUROC of 0.72 (0.708, 0.723) compared to 0.56 (0.555, 0.568) when [Formula: see text] was kept constant. Monitoring the evolution of [Formula: see text] during an epidemic is an important complementary piece of information to reported daily counts, recoveries and deaths, since it provides an early signal of the efficacy of containment measures. Using updated [Formula: see text] values produces significantly better predictions of future outbreaks. Our results found variation in the effect of early public health interventions on the evolution of [Formula: see text] over time and across countries, which could not be explained solely by the timing and number of the adopted interventions.

SUBMITTER: Zhu J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8155190 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:This study aimed to determine the possibility of COVID-19 transmission through in-flight contact during flights for many patients with confirmed COVID-19 during the COVID-19 pandemic and explore infection prevention and control (IPC) methods for overseas infectious diseases. A retrospective cohort study was conducted on flight with a large number of confirmed case among. Delhi- Incheon flights in 2020. This flight was selected to confirm transmission through close contact with the cabin, with a total of 14 confirmed cases out of 190 passengers (including 10 flight attendants). After confirming COVID-19 test results for those entering Korea, we conducted an epidemiological investigation on confirmed patients to determine their general characteristics and epidemiological relevance. We analyzed the epidemiological relevance, occupational information, incubation period, and COVID-19 variation and genotype among confirmed patients who were in close contact with confirmed cases, and analyzed the possibility of transmission according to the distance of close contact in the flight. One confirmed patient was found to be highly likely to be infected due to close contact with the cabin. However, it occurred within two rows, not within 1 meter. In addition, considering the aerodynamics in the cabin and local incidence rate, infection in an unspecified number of local people could not be excluded. It was analyzed that the reason for reducing infection from close contact on board for a long time in a flight with a large number of confirmed cases was the effective IPC method. In order to prevent overseas infectious diseases caused by flights, autonomous IPC management of airlines and passengers is necessary in addition to national quarantine management such as symptom screening before boarding, wearing passenger masks while boarding, food and beverage restrictions, disinfection of public spaces, distancing between passengers, close contact management after boarding, and self-quarantine.

Project description:BackgroundAn increase in online searches on health topics may either mirror epidemiological changes or reflect media coverage. In the context of COVID-19, this is particularly relevant, as COVID-19 symptoms may be mistaken for those of respiratory disease exacerbations. Therefore, we aimed to assess Internet search patterns on asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in the context of COVID-19, as compared to searches on other chronic diseases.MethodsWe retrieved Google Trends (GTs) data on two respiratory (asthma and COPD) and three non-respiratory (diabetes, hypertension, and Crohn's disease) chronic diseases over the past 5 years (up to May 31, 2020). For 54 countries, and for each disease, we built autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models to predict GTs for 2020 based on 2015-2019 search patterns. In addition, we estimated the proportion of searches in which COVID-19-related terms were used. To assess the potential impact of media coverage on online searches, we assessed whether weekly "asthma" GTs correlated with the number of Google News items on asthma.ResultsOver the past 5 years, worldwide search volumes for asthma and COPD reached their maximum values in March 2020. Such was not observed for diabetes, hypertension and Crohn's disease. In 38 (70%) countries, GTs on asthma were higher in March 2020 than the respective maximum predicted values. This compares to 19 countries for COPD, 23 for hypertension, 11 for Crohn's disease, and 9 for diabetes. Queries with COVID-19-related terms represented up to 47.8% of the monthly searches on asthma, and up to 21.3% of COPD searches. In most of the assessed countries, moderate-strong correlations were observed between "asthma" GTs and the number of news items on asthma.ConclusionsDuring March 2020, there was a peak in searches on asthma and COPD, which was probably mostly driven by media coverage, as suggested by their simultaneity in several countries with different epidemiological situations.

Project description:Apart from the morbidity and mortality, the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has increased the predisposition of households in Nigeria to forgone care, thereby increasing their vulnerability to adverse health consequences. Since there is no previous study in Nigeria on the evolution of pandemic-related forgone care and its drivers, our study assess the evolution of the problem using descriptive and nationally representative panel data analyses. We found about a 30% prevalence of forgone care during the lockdown, which declined progressively afterwards, dropping by 69.50 percentage points between April 2020 and April 2022. This decline produced a surge in households needing care from about 35.00% in the early pandemic to greater than 50%, beginning in early 2021. The forgone care was primarily due to financial hindrances, movement restrictions, and supply-side disruptions. Household socioeconomic factors such as income loss had 2.74 [95%CI: 1.45-5.17] times higher odds of forgone care, job loss, food insecurity, and poverty were 87% (OR: 1.87 [95%CI: 1.25-2.79]), 60% (OR: 1.60 [95%CI: 1.12-2.31]) and 76% (OR: 1.76 [95%CI: 1.12-2.75]) more likely to predispose households to forgone care, respectively. Also, geographical location, such as the South-South zone, induced 1.98 [95%CI: 1.09-3.58] times higher odds of forgone care than North-Central. A married female household head increased the odds by 6.07 [95%CI: 1.72-21.47] times compared with an unmarried female head. However, having a married household head, social assistance, and North-East or North-West zone compared with North-Central increased the chance of accessing care by 69% (OR 0.31 [95%CI: 0.16-0.59]), 59%,(OR 0.41 [95%CI: 0.21-0.77]), 72% (OR 0.28 [95%CI: 0.15-0.53]) and 64% (OR 0.36 [95%CI: 0.20-0.65]), respectively. Non-communicable diseases, disability, old age, large household size and rural-urban location did not affect the forgone care. Our study highlights the need to strengthen Nigeria's health system, create policies to promote healthcare accessibility and prepare the country for future pandemic challenges.

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Evolution of disease transmission during the COVID-19 pandemic: patterns and determinants.

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