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A system dynamics-based scenario analysis of residential solid waste management in Kisumu, Kenya

ABSTRACT: The problem of solid waste management presents an issue of increasing importance in many low-income settings, including the progressively urbanised context of Kenya. Kisumu County is one such setting with an estimated 500 t of waste generated per day and with less than half of it regularly collected. The open burning and natural decay of solid waste is an important source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and atmospheric pollutants with adverse health consequences. In this paper, we use system dynamics modelling to investigate the expected impact on GHG and PM2.5 emissions of (i) a waste-to-biogas initiative and (ii) a regulatory ban on the open burning of waste in landfill. We use life tables to estimate the impact on mortality of the reduction in PM2.5 exposure. Our results indicate that combining these two interventions can generate over 1.1 million tonnes of cumulative savings in GHG emissions by 2035, of which the largest contribution (42%) results from the biogas produced replacing unclean fuels in household cooking. Combining the two interventions is expected to reduce PM2.5 emissions from the waste and residential sectors by over 30% compared to our baseline scenario by 2035, resulting in at least around 1150 cumulative life years saved over 2021–2035. The contribution and novelty of this study lies in the quantification of a potential waste-to-biogas scenario and its environmental and health impact in Kisumu for the first time. Graphical abstract Unlabelled Image Highlights • We present a system dynamics study of solid waste management in Kisumu, Kenya.• Scenarios involve a waste-to-biogas initiative and a ban on open burning in landfill.• Combined scenario generates 1.1m tonnes cumulative GHG savings by 2035.• Largest contribution (42%) is from biogas substituting traditional cooking fuels.• Combined scenario may save 1,150 cumulative life years by 2035, plus ~220 more p.a.

SUBMITTER: Dianati K

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8155395 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:The establishment of sustainable soil waste management practices implies minimizing their environmental losses associated with climate change (greenhouse gases: GHGs) and ecosystems acidification (ammonia: NH3 ). Although a number of management strategies for solid waste management have been investigated to quantify nitrogen (N) and carbon (C) losses in relation to varied environmental and operational conditions, their overall effect is still uncertain. In this context, we have analyzed the current scientific information through a systematic review. We quantified the response of GHG emissions, NH3 emissions, and total N losses to different solid waste management strategies (conventional solid storage, turned composting, forced aerated composting, covering, compaction, addition/substitution of bulking agents and the use of additives). Our study is based on a meta-analysis of 50 research articles involving 304 observations. Our results indicated that improving the structure of the pile (waste or manure heap) via addition or substitution of certain bulking agents significantly reduced nitrous oxide (N2 O) and methane (CH4 ) emissions by 53% and 71%, respectively. Turned composting systems, unlike forced aerated composted systems, showed potential for reducing GHGs (N2 O: 50% and CH4 : 71%). Bulking agents and both composting systems involved a certain degree of pollution swapping as they significantly promoted NH3 emissions by 35%, 54%, and 121% for bulking agents, turned and forced aerated composting, respectively. Strategies based on the restriction of O2 supply, such as covering or compaction, did not show significant effects on reducing GHGs but substantially decreased NH3 emissions by 61% and 54% for covering and compaction, respectively. The use of specific additives significantly reduced NH3 losses by 69%. Our meta-analysis suggested that there is enough evidence to refine future Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) methodologies from solid waste, especially for solid waste composting practices. More holistic and integrated approaches are therefore required to develop more sustainable solid waste management systems.

Project description:BackgroundMalaria microscopy, while the gold standard for malaria diagnosis, has limitations. Efficacy estimates in drug and vaccine malaria trials are very sensitive to small errors in microscopy endpoints. This fact led to the establishment of a Malaria Diagnostics Centre of Excellence in Kisumu, Kenya. The primary objective was to ensure valid clinical trial and diagnostic test evaluations. Key secondary objectives were technology transfer to host countries, establishment of partnerships, and training of clinical microscopists.Case descriptionA twelve-day "long" and a four-day "short" training course consisting of supervised laboratory practicals, lectures, group discussions, demonstrations, and take home assignments were developed. Well characterized slides were developed and training materials iteratively improved. Objective pre- and post-course evaluations consisted of 30 slides (19 negative, 11 positive) with a density range of 50-660 parasites/mul, a written examination (65 questions), a photographic image examination (30 images of artifacts and species specific characteristics), and a parasite counting examination.Discussion and evaluationTo date, 209 microscopists have participated from 11 countries. Seventy-seven experienced microscopists participated in the "long" courses, including 47 research microscopists. Sensitivity improved by a mean of 14% (CI 9-19%) from 77% baseline (CI 73-81 %), while specificity improved by a mean of 17% (CI 11-23%) from 76% (CI 70-82%) baseline. Twenty-three microscopists who had been selected for a four-day refresher course showed continued improvement with a mean final sensitivity of 95% (CI 91-98%) and specificity of 97% (CI 95-100%). Only 9% of those taking the pre-test in the "long" course achieved a 90% sensitivity and 95% specificity, which increased to 61% of those completing the "short" course. All measures of performance improved substantially across each of the five organization types and in each course offered.ConclusionThe data clearly illustrated that false positive and negative malaria smears are a serious problem, even with research microscopists. Training dramatically improved performance. Quality microscopy can be provided by the Centre of Excellence concept. This concept can be extended to other diagnostics of public health importance, and comprehensive disease control strategies.

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A system dynamics-based scenario analysis of residential solid waste management in Kisumu, Kenya

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