Transmission Dynamics, Heterogeneity and Controllability of SARS-CoV-2: A Rural-Urban Comparison.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Li Y
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8156721 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:ObjectivesAs the world responds to the coronavirus outbreak, the role of public health in ensuring equitable health care that considers the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) dynamics in rural communities is still a challenge. The same suppression and mitigation measures have been implemented homogeneously, ignoring the differences between urban and rural areas. We propose an epidemiological model and simulate the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in urban and rural areas considering the interaction between these regions.Study designThis was a population modeling study.MethodsA compartmental epidemiological model was formulated to simulate the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in urban and rural areas. We use the model to investigate the impact of control strategies focused on the urban-rural interface to contain the epidemic size of SARS-CoV-2 in rural areas.ResultsConsidering five different levels for the exposition rate in urban areas and keeping intrarural and urban-rural exposition rates fixed, the preventive measures reduce the size and delay the peak for the urban infectives. The response of infected individuals and cumulative deaths in rural areas upon changes in the urban dynamics was small but not negligible. On the other hand, preventive measures focused on the urban-rural interface impact the number of infected individuals and deaths in rural areas.ConclusionsThe maintenance of SARS-CoV-2 in rural areas depends on the interaction of individuals at the urban-rural interface. Thus, restrictive measures established by the governments would not be required within rural areas. We highlight the importance of focused preventive measures on the urban-rural interface to reduce the exposure and avoid the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 to rural communities.
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Project description:A long-standing question in infectious disease dynamics concerns the role of transmission heterogeneities, which are driven by demography, behavior, and interventions. On the basis of detailed patient and contact-tracing data in Hunan, China, we find that 80% of secondary infections traced back to 15% of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) primary infections, which indicates substantial transmission heterogeneities. Transmission risk scales positively with the duration of exposure and the closeness of social interactions and is modulated by demographic and clinical factors. The lockdown period increases transmission risk in the family and households, whereas isolation and quarantine reduce risks across all types of contacts. The reconstructed infectiousness profile of a typical SARS-CoV-2 patient peaks just before symptom presentation. Modeling indicates that SARS-CoV-2 control requires the synergistic efforts of case isolation, contact quarantine, and population-level interventions because of the specific transmission kinetics of this virus.
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Project description:This SuperSeries is composed of the SubSeries listed below.
2024-07-30 | GSE231416 | GEO
Project description:Highly mutable pathogens generate viral diversity that impacts virulence, transmissibility, treatment, and thwarts acquired immunity. We previously described C19-SPAR-Seq, a high-throughput, next-generation sequencing platform to detect SARS-CoV-2 that we deployed to systematically profile variant dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 for over 3 years in a large, North American urban environment (Toronto, Canada). Sequencing of the ACE2 receptor binding motif and polybasic furin cleavage site of Spike in over 70,000 patients revealed that population sweeps of canonical variants of concern (VOCs) occurred in repeating wavelets. Furthermore, we found that subvariants and putative quasi-species with alterations characteristic of future VOCs and/or predicted to be functionally important arose frequently, but always extinguished. Systematic screening of functionally relevant domains in pathogens could thus provide a powerful tool for monitoring spread and mutational trajectories, particularly those with zoonotic potential.
2024-07-30 | GSE224951 | GEO
Project description:Highly mutable pathogens generate viral diversity that impacts virulence, transmissibility, treatment, and thwarts acquired immunity. We previously described C19-SPAR-Seq, a high-throughput, next-generation sequencing platform to detect SARS-CoV-2 that we deployed to systematically profile variant dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 for over 3 years in a large, North American urban environment (Toronto, Canada). Sequencing of the ACE2 receptor binding motif and polybasic furin cleavage site of Spike in over 70,000 patients revealed that population sweeps of canonical variants of concern (VOCs) occurred in repeating wavelets. Furthermore, we found that subvariants and putative quasi-species with alterations characteristic of future VOCs and/or predicted to be functionally important arose frequently, but always extinguished. Systematic screening of functionally relevant domains in pathogens could thus provide a powerful tool for monitoring spread and mutational trajectories, particularly those with zoonotic potential.
2024-07-30 | GSE246819 | GEO
Project description:Highly mutable pathogens generate viral diversity that impacts virulence, transmissibility, treatment, and thwarts acquired immunity. We previously described C19-SPAR-Seq, a high-throughput, next-generation sequencing platform to detect SARS-CoV-2 that we deployed to systematically profile variant dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 for over 3 years in a large, North American urban environment (Toronto, Canada). Sequencing of the ACE2 receptor binding motif and polybasic furin cleavage site of Spike in over 70,000 patients revealed that population sweeps of canonical variants of concern (VOCs) occurred in repeating wavelets. Furthermore, we found that subvariants and putative quasi-species with alterations characteristic of future VOCs and/or predicted to be functionally important arose frequently, but always extinguished. Systematic screening of functionally relevant domains in pathogens could thus provide a powerful tool for monitoring spread and mutational trajectories, particularly those with zoonotic potential.
2024-07-30 | GSE231415 | GEO
Project description:The spread dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 virus have not yet been fully understood after two years of the pandemic. The virus's global spread represented a unique scenario for advancing infectious disease research. Consequently, mechanistic epidemiological theories were quickly dismissed, and more attention was paid to other approaches that considered heterogeneity in the spread. One of the most critical advances in aerial pathogens transmission was the global acceptance of the airborne model, where the airway is presented as the epicenter of the spread of the disease. Although the aerodynamics and persistence of the SARS-CoV-2 virus in the air have been extensively studied, the actual probability of contagion is still unknown. In this work, the individual heterogeneity in the transmission of 22 patients infected with COVID-19 was analyzed by close contact (cough samples) and air (environmental samples). Viral RNA was detected in 2/19 cough samples from patient subgroups, with a mean Ct (Cycle Threshold in Quantitative Polymerase Chain Reaction analysis) of 25.7 ± 7.0. Nevertheless, viral RNA was only detected in air samples from 1/8 patients, with an average Ct of 25.0 ± 4.0. Viral load in cough samples ranged from 7.3 × 105 to 8.7 × 108 copies/mL among patients, while concentrations between 1.1-4.8 copies/m3 were found in air, consistent with other reports in the literature. In patients undergoing follow-up, no viral load was found (neither in coughs nor in the air) after the third day of symptoms, which could help define quarantine periods in infected individuals. In addition, it was found that the patient's Ct should not be considered an indicator of infectiousness, since it could not be correlated with the viral load disseminated. The results of this work are in line with proposed hypotheses of superspreaders, which can attribute part of the heterogeneity of the spread to the oversized emission of a small percentage of infected people.
| S-EPMC9099777 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Mycobacterium tuberculosis transmission dynamics in high-burden settings are poorly understood. Growing evidence suggests transmission may be characterized by extensive individual heterogeneity in secondary cases (i.e., superspreading), yet the degree and influence of such heterogeneity is largely unknown and unmeasured in high burden-settings. We conducted a prospective, population-based molecular epidemiology study of TB transmission in both an urban and rural setting of Botswana, one of the highest TB burden countries in the world. We used these empirical data to fit two mathematical models (urban and rural) that jointly quantified both the effective reproductive number, [Formula: see text], and the propensity for superspreading in each population. We found both urban and rural populations were characterized by a high degree of individual heterogeneity, however such heterogeneity disproportionately impacted the rural population: 99% of secondary transmission was attributed to only 19% of infectious cases in the rural population compared to 60% in the urban population and the median number of incident cases until the first outbreak of 30 cases was only 32 for the rural model compared to 791 in the urban model. These findings suggest individual heterogeneity plays a critical role shaping local TB epidemiology within subpopulations.
| S-EPMC9042872 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Atmospheric particulate matter (PM) is a recognized risk factor for the global burden of disease in human populations. We are presenting here the application of toxicogenomics in the evaluation of the toxic effects of organic content of atmospheric particle matter (PM), from urban and rural environments (city of Barcelona and village of La Pobla, NE Spain), using the developing zebrafish embryo. The main goal is to identify the metabolic pathways involved in the adverse effects observed in zebrafish embryos exposed to PM organic content from urban and rural environments, also allowing the selection of genes of interest that are differentially expressed. The relevance of particle size to the PM toxicity is also addressed. Indeed, the zebrafish embryos were exposed to PM of aerodynamic diameter larger than 7.2 μm and smaller than 0.5 μm (PM10 and PM0.5, respectively). PM0.5 concentrated biological and toxic activities linked to organic substances. Transcriptomic analyses showed strong induction of the AhR signalling pathway (a.k.a. dioxin-like activity) for embryos exposed to both rural and urban extracts, correlating with the concentrations of PAHs. Urban extracts, with strong contribution of traffic emissions, specifically de-regulated oxidative stress-related genes, as well as pancreatic and eye-lens specific genes, two organs known to be affected by air pollution in humans. Exposure to rural extracts, with high contribution of wood burning emissions, affected genes implicated in basic cellular functions, in agreement with their strong embryotoxicity. Extracts from rural and urban samples elicited both common and specific transcriptome responses, suggesting different potentially adverse outcomes depending on PM source and composition. The authors thank the financial support of the Spanish Ministry (project TEA-PARTICLE, grant number CGL2011-29621) and the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology for the doctoral grant of Sofia R. Mesquita (SFRH/BD/80710/2011) funded by the Program POPH-QREN through the Portuguese Ministry of Education and Science and the European Social Fund, and support through project PEst-C/MAR/LA0015/2013.
2015-10-26 | GSE53522 | GEO
Project description:Atmospheric particulate matter (PM) is a recognized risk factor for the global burden of disease in human populations. We are presenting here the application of toxicogenomics in the evaluation of the toxic effects of organic content of atmospheric particle matter (PM), from urban and rural environments (city of Barcelona and village of La Pobla, NE Spain), using the developing zebrafish embryo. The main goal is to identify the metabolic pathways involved in the adverse effects observed in zebrafish embryos exposed to PM organic content from urban and rural environments, also allowing the selection of genes of interest that are differentially expressed. The relevance of particle size to the PM toxicity is also addressed. Indeed, the zebrafish embryos were exposed to PM of aerodynamic diameter larger than 7.2 μm and smaller than 0.5 μm (PM10 and PM0.5, respectively). PM0.5 concentrated biological and toxic activities linked to organic substances. Transcriptomic analyses showed strong induction of the AhR signalling pathway (a.k.a. dioxin-like activity) for embryos exposed to both rural and urban extracts, correlating with the concentrations of PAHs. Urban extracts, with strong contribution of traffic emissions, specifically de-regulated oxidative stress-related genes, as well as pancreatic and eye-lens specific genes, two organs known to be affected by air pollution in humans. Exposure to rural extracts, with high contribution of wood burning emissions, affected genes implicated in basic cellular functions, in agreement with their strong embryotoxicity. Extracts from rural and urban samples elicited both common and specific transcriptome responses, suggesting different potentially adverse outcomes depending on PM source and composition. The authors thank the financial support of the Spanish Ministry (project TEA-PARTICLE, grant number CGL2011-29621) and the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology for the doctoral grant of Sofia R. Mesquita (SFRH/BD/80710/2011) funded by the Program POPH-QREN through the Portuguese Ministry of Education and Science and the European Social Fund, and support through project PEst-C/MAR/LA0015/2013. The PM filter samples used in the present study were PM10 and PM0.5 from the urban site - total of 4 samples from 2 sampling months; and PM0.5 from the rural site - total of 2 samples from 2 sampling months (PM10 samples from the rural site were not tested due to their very low concentration in organic compounds, and insignificant biological activity, previously measured). Sampling occurred during the cold periods of the year 2012/2013. The organic fraction of PM samples was extracted by sonication using a mixture of dichloromethane:methanol. Then, the extracts were filtered, evaporated and re-dissolved in Dimethyl sulfoxide (DMSO). Zebrafish fertilized eggs were exposed to PM organic extracts (0.2% DMSO) from the urban and rural sites from 24 to 120h post-fertilization. Total RNA was isolated from whole embryos (pools of 20 individuals), using Trizol reagent protocol (Invitrogen Life Technologies, Carlsberg, CA). The microarray study was performed using the Agilent Two-colour D. rerio Oligo Microarray v3 platform, following the Agilent Microarray â?? Based Gene Expression Analysis protocol. Three biological replicates were performed for each PM sample and controls. Biological replicates, a technical replicate and a self-to-self, were simultaneously amplified and labelled using Cyanine 3 (Cy3) and Cyanine 5 (Cy5) dye. After cRNA purification (RNeasy Kit, Quiagen GmbH, Hilden, Germany), the cRNA concentration and labelling were quantified in the NanoDrop spectrophotometer, obtaining incorporation rates in the range of 15-20pmol of cyanide dye/µl cRNA and yield values > 0.825ug, as recommended. cRNA was fragmented and hybridized in 4x44K arrays, for 17h at 65oC. After the hybridization the array slides were washed, and immediately scanned using Microarray Scanner Agilent G2505C system. Data was extracted using Agilent Feature Extraction Software v10.5.1.1, and the quality of microarray data was evaluated using the Quality Control report provided by Agilent Software. Based on the microarray data analysis, 22 primers were selected and designed using Primer Express 2.0 software (Applied Biosystems, Foster City, CA). Genes were quantified by real-time PCR to validate the microarray data, and a subset of 13 genes were further selected by their robust behaviour in the validation assays, allowing to differentiate the toxic potential of PM from urban and rural sources.
2015-10-26 | E-GEOD-53522 | biostudies-arrayexpress