Controversy and debate on credibility ceilings. Paper 1: Fundamental problems with the "credibility ceiling" method for meta-analyses.

ABSTRACT:

Background and objectives

The "credibility ceiling" method was proposed to conduct sensitivity analysis for unmeasured confounding and other forms of bias in meta-analyses and has been used in umbrella reviews to grade evidence strength. However, we explain that the method has fundamental statistical flaws.

Methods

We use statistical reasoning to assess the method's validity, providing intuition for our findings by presenting simple applied examples in which the method yields clearly incorrect conclusions.

Results

The credibility ceiling is not a valid bias correction, as we show mathematically and illustrate using examples in which, for example, the method incorrectly "adjusts" the meta-analytic point estimate in the wrong direction. Although the originators describe

SUBMITTER: Mathur MB 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8159013 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature