Probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 deaths with the progression rate from pneumonia to ARDS: An open-data-based global study.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Cumulative data of case-fatality rates (CFR) of COVID-19 varied across countries. A forecasting model generated based on detailed information from three countries during the initial phase of pandemic showed that progression rates from pneumonia to ARDS (PRPA) varied by country and were highly associated with CFR. We aim to elucidate the impact of the PRPA on COVID-19 deaths in different periods of pandemic.

Methods

We used the country-based, real-time global COVID-19 data through GitHub repository to estimate PRPA on the first period (January to June), second period (July to September), and third period (October to December) in 2020. PRPA was used for predicting COVID-19 deaths and assessing the reduction in deaths in subsequent two periods.

Results

The est

SUBMITTER: Chang WJ 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8165092 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature