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Absence of "Cytokine Storm" in Hospitalized COVID-19 Patients: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

ABSTRACT: Background: A rapidly growing number of publications cite "cytokine storm" as a contributing factor in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pathology. However, a few recent reports led to questioning of "cytokine storm" theory in COVID-19. This study's primary goal is to determine if exaggerated cytokine response in the range of a "cytokine storm" develops during the initial weeks of hospitalization in COVID-19 patients. Methods: Five proinflammatory cytokines reported to be involved in "cytokine storm" and elevated in COVID-19 (IL-6, IL-8, TNF-α, MCP-1, and IP-10) were analyzed in COVID-19, influenza (with "cytokine storm": CS), and burn injury patients. The effect of dexamethasone use on cytokine response in COVID-19 was also analyzed. Results: None of the five cytokines in COVID-19 patients reached the lower threshold (95% CI) of the influenza (CS) group at any point during the study period. Furthermore, mean concentrations of all five cytokines in the influenza (CS) group and IL-6, IL-8, TNF-α in the burn group were significantly greater than in COVID-19 patients (p < 0.01). Dexamethasone treatment did not significantly alter the concentrations of any of the cytokines analyzed. Conclusions: Exaggerated cytokine response similar to "cytokine storm" was not observed in COVID-19 patients during two weeks of hospitalization.

SUBMITTER: Ciampa ML

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8167630 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundThe novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 and its associated disease, COVID-19, have caused worldwide disruption, leading countries to take drastic measures to address the progression of the disease. As SARS-CoV-2 continues to spread, hospitals are struggling to allocate resources to patients who are most at risk. In this context, it has become important to develop models that can accurately predict the severity of infection of hospitalized patients to help guide triage, planning, and resource allocation.ObjectiveThe aim of this study was to develop accurate models to predict the mortality of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 using basic demographics and easily obtainable laboratory data.MethodsWe performed a retrospective study of 375 hospitalized patients with COVID-19 in Wuhan, China. The patients were randomly split into derivation and validation cohorts. Regularized logistic regression and support vector machine classifiers were trained on the derivation cohort, and accuracy metrics (F1 scores) were computed on the validation cohort. Two types of models were developed: the first type used laboratory findings from the entire length of the patient's hospital stay, and the second type used laboratory findings that were obtained no later than 12 hours after admission. The models were further validated on a multicenter external cohort of 542 patients.ResultsOf the 375 patients with COVID-19, 174 (46.4%) died of the infection. The study cohort was composed of 224/375 men (59.7%) and 151/375 women (40.3%), with a mean age of 58.83 years (SD 16.46). The models developed using data from throughout the patients' length of stay demonstrated accuracies as high as 97%, whereas the models with admission laboratory variables possessed accuracies of up to 93%. The latter models predicted patient outcomes an average of 11.5 days in advance. Key variables such as lactate dehydrogenase, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, and percentage of lymphocytes in the blood were indicated by the models. In line with previous studies, age was also found to be an important variable in predicting mortality. In particular, the mean age of patients who survived COVID-19 infection (50.23 years, SD 15.02) was significantly lower than the mean age of patients who died of the infection (68.75 years, SD 11.83; P<.001).ConclusionsMachine learning models can be successfully employed to accurately predict outcomes of patients with COVID-19. Our models achieved high accuracies and could predict outcomes more than one week in advance; this promising result suggests that these models can be highly useful for resource allocation in hospitals.

Project description:BackgroundFirst reported case of Severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Kazakhstan was identified in March 2020. Many specialized tertiary hospitals in Kazakhstan including National Research Cardiac Surgery Center (NRCSC) were re-organized to accept coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infected patients during summer months of 2020. Although many studies from worldwide reported their experience in treating patients with COVID-19, there are limited data available from the Central Asia countries. The aim of this study is to identify predictors of mortality associated with COVID-19 in NRCSC tertiary hospital in Nur-Sultan, Kazakhstan.MethodsThis is a retrospective cohort study of patients admitted to the NRCSC between June 1st-August 31st 2020 with COVID-19. Demographic, clinical and laboratory data were collected from electronic records. In-hospital mortality was assessed as an outcome. Patients were followed-up until in-hospital death or discharge from the hospital. Descriptive statistics and factors associated with mortality were assessed using univariate and multivariate logistic regression models.ResultsTwo hundred thirty-nine admissions were recorded during the follow-up period. Mean age was 57 years and 61% were males. Median duration of stay at the hospital was 8 days and 34 (14%) patients died during the hospitalization. Non-survivors were more likely to be admitted later from the disease onset, with higher fever, lower oxygen saturation and increased respiratory rate compared to survivors. Leukocytosis, lymphopenia, anemia, elevated liver and kidney function tests, hypoproteinemia, elevated inflammatory markers (C-reactive protein (CRP), ferritin, and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH)) and coagulation tests (fibrinogen, D-dimer, international normalized ratio (INR), and activated partial thromboplastin time (aPTT)) at admission were associated with mortality. Age (OR 1.2, CI:1.01-1.43), respiratory rate (OR 1.38, CI: 1.07-1.77), and CRP (OR 1.39, CI: 1.04-1.87) were determined to be independent predictors of mortality.ConclusionThis study describes 14% mortality rate from COVID-19 in the tertiary hospital. Many abnormal clinical and laboratory variables at admission were associated with poor outcome. Age, respiratory rate and CRP were found to be independent predictors of mortality. Our finding would help healthcare providers to predict the risk factors associated with high risk of mortality. Further investigations involving large cohorts should be provided to support our findings.

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Absence of "Cytokine Storm" in Hospitalized COVID-19 Patients: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

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