Dataset Information

Global economic costs due to vivax malaria and the potential impact of its radical cure: A modelling study.

ABSTRACT:

Background

In 2017, an estimated 14 million cases of Plasmodium vivax malaria were reported from Asia, Central and South America, and the Horn of Africa. The clinical burden of vivax malaria is largely driven by its ability to form dormant liver stages (hypnozoites) that can reactivate to cause recurrent episodes of malaria. Elimination of both the blood and liver stages of the parasites ("radical cure") is required to achieve a sustained clinical response and prevent ongoing transmission of the parasite. Novel treatment options and point-of-care diagnostics are now available to ensure that radical cure can be administered safely and effectively. We quantified the global economic cost of vivax malaria and estimated the potential cost benefit of a policy of radical cure after testing patients for glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) deficiency.

Methods and findings

Estimates of the healthcare provider and household costs due to vivax malaria were collated and combined with national case estimates for 44 endemic countries in 2017. These provider and household costs were compared with those that would be incurred under 2 scenarios for radical cure following G6PD screening: (1) complete adherence following daily supervised primaquine therapy and (2) unsupervised treatment with an assumed 40% effectiveness. A probabilistic sensitivity analysis generated credible intervals (CrIs) for the estimates. Globally, the annual cost of vivax malaria was US$359 million (95% CrI: US$222 to 563 million), attributable to 14.2 million cases of vivax malaria in 2017. From a societal perspective, adopting a policy of G6PD deficiency screening and supervision of primaquine to all eligible patients would prevent 6.1 million cases and reduce the global cost of vivax malaria to US$266 million (95% CrI: US$161 to 415 million), although healthcare provider costs would increase by US$39 million. If perfect adherence could be achieved with a single visit, then the global cost would fall further to US$225 million, equivalent to $135 million in cost savings from the baseline global costs. A policy of unsupervised primaquine reduced the cost to US$342 million (95% CrI: US$209 to 532 million) while preventing 2.1 million cases. Limitations of the study include partial availability of country-level cost data and parameter uncertainty for the proportion of patients prescribed primaquine, patient adherence to a full course of primaquine, and effectiveness of primaquine when unsupervised.

Conclusions

Our modelling study highlights a substantial global economic burden of vivax malaria that could be reduced through investment in safe and effective radical cure achieved by routine screening for G6PD deficiency and supervision of treatment. Novel, low-cost interventions for improving adherence to primaquine to ensure effective radical cure and widespread access to screening for G6PD deficiency will be critical to achieving the timely global elimination of P. vivax.

SUBMITTER: Devine A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8168905 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundPlasmodium vivax (Pv) infections were 68% of the total malaria burden in Laos in 2019. The parasite causes frequent relapses, which can be prevented by primaquine (PMQ). Testing for glucose-6-phosphate-dehydrogenase (G6PD) deficiency is recommended before giving PMQ to avoid haemolysis. Because of the risk of haemolysis in G6PD intermediate deficiencies among females, Laos uses the PMQ 14-days regimen only in G6PD normal females. Among G6PD point-of-care tests, qualitative tests cannot differentiate between G6PD normal and intermediate females. Quantitative tests are required to differentiate between G6PD normal and intermediate deficiencies. However, the quantitative test lacks the cost-effectiveness evidence necessary for decision-making for large-scale adoption. This study examined the cost-effectiveness of quantitative G6PD test, with either supervised PMQ treatment or unsupervised PMQ treatment, against the usual unsupervised PMQ 8-weeks strategy. Supervised PMQ 8-weeks strategy without G6PD testing was also compared against the unsupervised PMQ 8-weeks strategy since the former had recently been adopted in malaria high burden villages that had village malaria volunteers. A budget impact analysis was conducted to understand the incremental cost and effect needed for a nationwide scale-up of the chosen strategy.MethodsA decision tree model compared the cost-effectiveness of implementing four strategies at one health facility with an average of 14 Pv cases in one year. The strategies were unsupervised PMQ strategy, supervised PMQ strategy, G6PD test with unsupervised PMQ strategy, and G6PD test with supervised PMQ strategy. Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) was the effect measure. Costs were calculated from a payer perspective, and sensitivity analyses were conducted. One Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita of Laos was set as the cost-effectiveness threshold. Budget impact analysis was conducted using the health facility wise Pv data in Laos in 2020.FindingsSupervised PMQ strategy was extendedly dominated by G6PD test strategies. When compared against the unsupervised PMQ strategy, both G6PD test strategies were more costly but more effective. Their Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratios (ICER) were 96.72US$ for the G6PD test with unsupervised PMQ strategy and 184.86US$ for the G6PD test with supervised PMQ strategy. Both ICERs were lower than one GDP per capita in Laos. Following the sensitivity analysis, low adherence for PMQ 14 days made both G6PD test strategies less cost-effective. The lower the Pv case number reported in a health facility, the higher the ICER was. In the budget impact analysis, the expected budget need was only half a million US$ when the G6PD test rollout was discriminately done depending on the Pv case number reported at the health facilities. Indiscriminate roll out of G6PD test to all health facilities was most expensive with least effect impact.

Project description:BackgroundIn many endemic areas, Plasmodium vivax malaria is predominantly a disease of young adults and children. International recommendations for radical cure recommend fixed target doses of 0.25 or 0.5 mg/kg/day of primaquine for 14 days in glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase normal patients of all ages. However, for many anti-malarial drugs, including primaquine, there is evidence that children have lower exposures than adults for the same weight-adjusted dose. The aim of the study was to develop 14-day weight-based and age-based primaquine regimens against high-frequency relapsing tropical P. vivax.MethodsThe recommended adult target dose of 0.5 mg/kg/day (30 mg in a 60 kg patient) is highly efficacious against tropical P. vivax and was assumed to produce optimal drug exposure. Primaquine doses were calculated using allometric scaling to derive a weight-based primaquine regimen over a weight range from 5 to 100 kg. Growth curves were constructed from an anthropometric database of 53,467 individuals from the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) to define weight-for-age relationships. The median age associated with each weight was used to derive an age-based dosing regimen from the weight-based regimen.ResultsThe proposed weight-based regimen has 5 dosing bands: (i) 5-7 kg, 5 mg, resulting in 0.71-1.0 mg/kg/day; (ii) 8-16 kg, 7.5 mg, 0.47-0.94 mg/kg/day; (iii) 17-40 kg, 15 mg, 0.38-0.88 mg/kg/day; (iv) 41-80 kg, 30 mg, 0.37-0.73 mg/kg/day; and (v) 81-100 kg, 45 mg, 0.45-0.56 mg/kg/day. The corresponding age-based regimen had 4 dosing bands: 6-11 months, 5 mg, 0.43-1.0 mg/kg/day; (ii) 1-5 years, 7.5 mg, 0.35-1.25 mg/kg/day; (iii) 6-14 years, 15 mg, 0.30-1.36 mg/kg/day; and (iv) ≥ 15 years, 30 mg, 0.35-1.07 mg/kg/day.ConclusionThe proposed weight-based regimen showed less variability around the primaquine dose within each dosing band compared to the age-based regimen and is preferred. Increased dose accuracy could be achieved by additional dosing bands for both regimens. The age-based regimen might not be applicable to regions outside the GMS, which must be based on local anthropometric data. Pharmacokinetic data in small children are needed urgently to inform the proposed regimens.

Project description:BackgroundPlasmodium vivax malaria has a persistent liver stage that causes relapse, and introducing tafenoquine to suppress relapse could aid in disease eradication. Therefore, we assessed the impact of tafenoquine introduction on P. vivax malaria incidence and performed a cost-benefit analysis from the payer's perspective.MethodsWe expanded the previously developed P. vivax malaria dynamic transmission model and calibrated it to weekly civilian malaria incidences in 2014-2018. Primaquine and tafenoquine scenarios were considered by assuming different relapse probabilities, and relapse and total P. vivax malaria cases were predicted over the next decade for each scenario. We then estimated the number of cases prevented by replacing primaquine with tafenoquine. The cost and benefit of introducing tafenoquine were obtained using medical expenditure from a nationwide database, and a cost-benefit analysis was conducted. A probabilistic sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the economic feasibility robustness of tafenoquine introduction under uncertainties of model parameters, costs, and benefits.ResultsUnder 0.04 primaquine relapse probability, the introduction of tafenoquine with relapse probability of 0.01 prevented 129 (12.27%) and 35 (77.78%) total and relapse cases, respectively, over the next decade. However, under the same relapse probability as primaquine, introducing tafenoquine had no additional preventative effect. The 14-day primaquine treatment cost was $3.71. The tafenoquine and the glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase rapid diagnostic testing cost $57.37 and $7.76, totaling $65.13. The average medical expenditure per malaria patient was estimated at $1444.79. The cost-benefit analysis results provided an incremental benefit-cost ratio (IBCR) from 0 to 3.21 as the tafenoquine relapse probability decreased from 0.04 to 0.01. The probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed an IBCR > 1, indicating that tafenoquine is beneficial, with a probability of 69.1%.ConclusionTafenoquine could reduce P. vivax malaria incidence and medical costs and bring greater benefits than primaquine.

Project description:BackgroundThe World Health Organization recommends that primaquine should be given once weekly for 8-weeks to patients with Plasmodium vivax malaria and glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) deficiency, but data on its antirelapse efficacy and safety are limited.MethodsWithin the context of a multicentre, randomised clinical trial of two primaquine regimens in P. vivax malaria, patients with G6PD deficiency were excluded and enrolled into a separate 12-month observational study. They were treated with a weekly dose of 0.75 mg/kg primaquine for 8 weeks (PQ8W) plus dihydroartemisinin piperaquine (Indonesia) or chloroquine (Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Vietnam). G6PD status was diagnosed using the fluorescent spot test and confirmed by genotyping for locally prevalent G6PD variants. The risk of P. vivax recurrence following PQ8W and the consequent haematological recovery were characterized in all patients and in patients with genotypically confirmed G6PD variants, and compared with the patients enrolled in the main randomised control trial.ResultsBetween July 2014 and November 2017, 42 male and 8 female patients were enrolled in Afghanistan (6), Ethiopia (5), Indonesia (19), and Vietnam (20). G6PD deficiency was confirmed by genotyping in 31 patients: Viangchan (14), Mediterranean (4), 357A-G (3), Canton (2), Kaiping (2), and one each for A-, Chatham, Gaohe, Ludhiana, Orissa, and Vanua Lava. Two patients had recurrent P. vivax parasitaemia (days 68 and 207). The overall 12-month cumulative risk of recurrent P. vivax malaria was 5.1% (95% CI: 1.3-18.9) and the incidence rate of recurrence was 46.8 per 1000 person-years (95% CI: 11.7-187.1). The risk of P. vivax recurrence was lower in G6PD deficient patients treated with PQ8W compared to G6PD normal patients in all treatment arms of the randomised controlled trial. Two of the 26 confirmed hemizygous males had a significant fall in haemoglobin (>5g/dl) after the first dose but were able to complete their 8 week regimen.ConclusionsPQ8W was highly effective in preventing P. vivax recurrences. Whilst PQ8W was well tolerated in most patients across a range of different G6PD variants, significant falls in haemoglobin may occur after the first dose and require clinical monitoring.Trial registrationThis trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT01814683).

Project description:BackgroundWide-spread implementation of treatment regimens for the radical cure of vivax malaria is hindered by a range of factors. This has resulted in an increase in the relative proportion of vivax malaria and is an important obstacle in the achievement of global malaria elimination by 2030. The main objective of this study was to explore the current policies guiding the treatment plans on vivax malaria, and the factors affecting the implementation of radical cure in South/South East Asian and Asian Pacific countries.MethodsThis was a qualitative study among respondents who represented national malaria control programmes (NMCPs) or had a role and influence in the national malaria policies. 33 respondents from 17 countries in South/South East Asia and Asia Pacific participated in interviews between October 15 and December 15, 2020. Semi-structured interviews were conducted virtually except for two face to face interviews and audio-recorded. Transcribed audio-records underwent thematic analysis using QSR NVivo.ResultsPolicies against vivax malaria were underprioritized, compared with the focus on falciparum malaria and, in particular, drug resistant Plasmodium falciparum strains. Despite the familiarity with primaquine (PQ) as the essential treatment to achieve the radical cure, the respondents contested the need for G6PD testing. Optional G6PD testing was reported to have poor adherence. The fear of adverse events led health workers to hesitate prescribing PQ. In countries where G6PD was mandatory, respondents experienced frequent stockouts of G6PD rapid diagnostic kits in peripheral health facilities, which was compounded by a short shelf life of these tests. These challenges were echoed across participating countries to various degrees. Most respondents agreed that a shorter treatment regimen, such as single dose tafenoquine could resolve these problems but mandatory G6PD testing will be needed. The recommendation of shorter regimens including tafenoquine or high dose PQ requires operational evidence demonstrating the robust performance of point of care G6PD tests (biosensors).ConclusionThere was sparse implementation and low adherence to the radical cure in South/South East Asian and Asian pacific countries. Shorter treatment regimens with appropriate point of care quantitative G6PD tests may resolve the current challenges. Operational evidence on point of care quantitative G6PD tests that includes the feasibility of integrating such tests into the radical cure regimen are critical to ensure its implementation.

Project description:BackgroundPrimaquine is the only widely used drug that prevents Plasmodium vivax malaria relapses, but adherence to the standard 14-day regimen is poor. We aimed to assess the efficacy of a shorter course (7 days) of primaquine for radical cure of vivax malaria.MethodsWe did a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, non-inferiority trial in eight health-care clinics (two each in Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Indonesia, and Vietnam). Patients (aged ≥6 months) with normal glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) and presenting with uncomplicated vivax malaria were enrolled. Patients were given standard blood schizontocidal treatment and randomly assigned (2:2:1) to receive 7 days of supervised primaquine (1·0 mg/kg per day), 14 days of supervised primaquine (0·5 mg/kg per day), or placebo. The primary endpoint was the incidence rate of symptomatic P vivax parasitaemia during the 12-month follow-up period, assessed in the intention-to-treat population. A margin of 0·07 recurrences per person-year was used to establish non-inferiority of the 7-day regimen compared with the 14-day regimen. This trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT01814683).FindingsBetween July 20, 2014, and Nov 25, 2017, 2336 patients were enrolled. The incidence rate of symptomatic recurrent P vivax malaria was 0·18 (95% CI 0·15 to 0·21) recurrences per person-year for 935 patients in the 7-day primaquine group and 0·16 (0·13 to 0·18) for 937 patients in the 14-day primaquine group, a difference of 0·02 (-0·02 to 0·05, p=0·3405). The incidence rate for 464 patients in the placebo group was 0·96 (95% CI 0·83 to 1·08) recurrences per person-year. Potentially drug-related serious adverse events within 42 days of starting treatment were reported in nine (1·0%) of 935 patients in the 7-day group, one (0·1%) of 937 in the 14-day group and none of 464 in the control arm. Four of the serious adverse events were significant haemolysis (three in the 7-day group and one in the 14-day group).InterpretationIn patients with normal G6PD, 7-day primaquine was well tolerated and non-inferior to 14-day primaquine. The short-course regimen might improve adherence and therefore the effectiveness of primaquine for radical cure of P vivax malaria.FundingUK Department for International Development, UK Medical Research Council, UK National Institute for Health Research, and the Wellcome Trust through the Joint Global Health Trials Scheme (MR/K007424/1) and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1054404).