Development and validation of prognostic model to predict mortality among cirrhotic patients with acute variceal bleeding: A retrospective study.

ABSTRACT:

Background and aim

Acute variceal bleeding (AVB) is a serious complication associated with high mortality. The aim of our study was to investigate mortality predictors and to develop a new simplified prognostic model among cirrhotic patients with AVB.

Methods

A simplified prognostic model was developed using multiple logistic regression after identifying significant predictors of 6-week mortality.

Results

A total of 713 consecutive patients with AVB were enrolled. The 6-week overall mortality rate was 18%. Multivariate analysis showed that shock, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score, high-risk stigmata of esophageal varices on endoscopic finding, and Glasgow Blatchford score were independent predictors of mortality. A new logistic model using these variables

SUBMITTER: Chirapongsathorn S 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8171152 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature